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Old 10-01-2010, 09:15 PM
 
Location: Uncharted island
329 posts, read 974,673 times
Reputation: 457

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sigh. ok you win. i'm also slightly amused that you would know what a bright side even looks like.
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Old 10-01-2010, 09:33 PM
 
Location: Tucson/Nogales
20,325 posts, read 23,913,008 times
Reputation: 28145
Doom and gloom, negative thinking, ironically, always seems to protect me.
It's all just harmless.

I go to work, worrying all the way over there: will my car breakdown on the way, will I have a job when I get there? This madness has been going on for decades: car has never broken down, I've always had a job waiting for me.

Back in 1990 I could have sworn I was going to die of AIDS (and too scared to get tested), got me a round-the-world pass and round the world I went, saying my good-bye's to good ol' Planet Earth en route. 20 years later?
Here I are! And I could have saved me a big chunk of money, by merely being tested, only after I returned did I do that! Negative!

Reading any number of these gloom and doom threads may very well be
initiated by people in the travel industry. Holy Smokes! Maybe the roof will cave in on me afterall! To their travel agent they speed away, and in a panic, they tell them: Get me a Round-the-world air pass and accompanying visas! Quick as you can! If the economy collapses, I lose my job, at least I'll have a couple of photo albums to take with me to a homeless shelter to enjoy!
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Old 10-02-2010, 02:20 AM
 
3,853 posts, read 12,064,224 times
Reputation: 2522
Yea america is not coming to an end. Silver hit 22$/oz and gold hit 1,300$/oz. Its time to celebrate god damn it!
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Old 10-02-2010, 03:16 AM
 
10,494 posts, read 24,490,027 times
Reputation: 6697
One thing every doom and gloomer will admit is we HOPE that we are wrong. We hope the positive people will prove us wrong. You're not going to upset us if the economy totally recovers back to 2005 levels and prove us all wrong. I do see some positive news. The stock market rallied all last month and the jobless claims improved last month. Lets hope it continues.
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Old 10-02-2010, 04:48 AM
 
86,369 posts, read 83,854,153 times
Reputation: 62094
even a broken watch is right 2x a day..

the fact is how you perceive things usually sets the path your life takes.

YOU SOW WHAT YOU THINK! there are those that complain how crooked the investment markets are or are afraid of impending doom and they generally end up with little assets saved because they belive that to be true and never invest , or you have those that expect politics to save them and if their party gets in things will be okay...

the list goes on and on but the truth is that those that see the glass 1/2 full and live their life based on what was,what is and what stands a reasonable chance of continuing seem to do a whole lot better. those that take control of their life and make things happen for themselves do a whole lot better then those that wait for the gov't to fix things,like they can even do that.

then when they do poorley financially they end up having to live life on the cheap and they complain how bad things are and blame everything around them..

its all your outlook on things that determines what and how you do in life.

i took a 30% wage cut and am on my 3rd job this year. but i still have a positive view for things . like water ,the economy and our lives always seek their own level and eventually level out .

the question is at what level will your life level out.....


life is like working on commission. you got good years, you got lean years but the goals and plans shouldnt change. eventually things go full circle and turn out okay for those with solid plans and goals.

Last edited by mathjak107; 10-02-2010 at 05:41 AM..
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Old 10-02-2010, 09:03 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,650,686 times
Reputation: 5180
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
even a broken watch is right 2x a day..

the fact is how you perceive things usually sets the path your life takes.

YOU SOW WHAT YOU THINK! there are those that complain how crooked the investment markets are or are afraid of impending doom and they generally end up with little assets saved because they belive that to be true and never invest , or you have those that expect politics to save them and if their party gets in things will be okay...

the list goes on and on but the truth is that those that see the glass 1/2 full and live their life based on what was,what is and what stands a reasonable chance of continuing seem to do a whole lot better. those that take control of their life and make things happen for themselves do a whole lot better then those that wait for the gov't to fix things,like they can even do that.

then when they do poorley financially they end up having to live life on the cheap and they complain how bad things are and blame everything around them..

its all your outlook on things that determines what and how you do in life.

i took a 30% wage cut and am on my 3rd job this year. but i still have a positive view for things . like water ,the economy and our lives always seek their own level and eventually level out .

the question is at what level will your life level out.....


life is like working on commission. you got good years, you got lean years but the goals and plans shouldnt change. eventually things go full circle and turn out okay for those with solid plans and goals.
It really matters little if you are a pessimist or optimist, so long as your views are biased on opinion rather that logical assessment of facts, you will be wrong.
The trick is to be a realist, and to evaluate the data honestly regardless of your personal bias.
In the 80's and 90's it was fairly elementary to assess the impact demographics and 401K's were going to have on the stock market. It was a great opportunity to make serious wealth, although most people missed it.
By 2000 the market had turned to a unsustainable bubble with only one outcome possible. I was called a doomer then for going to cash and banking my profits.
From 2000 until 2006 it was apparent that the QE and real estate refinancing was going to spur massive appreciation in real estate and that was the place to be. By 2006 the appreciation had passed all expectations and again it became apparent the market was unsustainable and it was time to go to cash. I took this course myself and wrote here on CD why the real estate market was in serious trouble. I received the same criticisms then for my stance.
That brings us to today.
What data suggests the economic direction going forward? On the macro level there are three things which will have a huge impact.

First demographics. The boomers represent the largest segment of the population and have the largest impact on the economy. Their behavior will dictate economic trends. So what is happening to the boomers? They are getting old. They are also getting poor. They lost tons of money in 2001 and again in 2008. They are slowly coming to the conclusion they need to change their spend thrift ways, or spend their golden years eating dog food.
Economic impact? Negative

Second, peak oil. This is a subject few really understand. It is not an issue of running out of oil. It is a study of how the cost of oil impacts the economy.
After being studied by Lloyd's of London, the US Department of Defense, the UK industry taskforce on Peak Oil, Honda, and the German military, they have all come to the conclusion that we will reach the point of peak oil within 5 years. As the price of oil increases it has an exponential effect on the economy. To understand this, you need to realize what it takes to replace oil. 1 Gallon of Gas = 500 hours of human work output. If you believe oil can be replaced by green energy, I ask you to research the topic. In the short term, say the next 25 years it is not going to happen.
Economic impact? Negative

Third Sovereign insolvency. Debt and future liabilities have resulted in negative net worth for the governments of Germany, France, Portugal, the US, the UK, Spain, Ireland, and Greece. And not by just a little bit, but exceptionally so, ranging from more than 450% of GDP in the case of Germany on the 'low' end to well over 1,500% of GDP for Greece. The US, the largest capital market and borrower, even the most optimistic budget estimates foresee another decade of crushing deficits that will grow the official deficit by some $9 trillion and the real deficit by perhaps another $20 to $30 trillion. Implication of various governments going deeper into debt is that a string of sovereign defaults lies in the future. Due to their interconnected borrowings and lending’s, one may topple the next like dominoes. Every single country is seeking a path to a weaker relative currency. The problem is obvious: Everybody cannot simultaneously have a weaker currency. Nor can everybody have a positive trade balance. Results, currency debasement, and higher taxes.
Economic impact? Negative

The macro economic picture is clear. These are facts and not my opinion. If you can present data that disproves any of it I would truly like to see it. If not you may want to begin to prepare. Fore warned is fore armed.
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Old 10-02-2010, 09:51 AM
 
8,265 posts, read 11,231,921 times
Reputation: 4788
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
the fact is how you perceive things usually sets the path your life takes.

YOU SOW WHAT YOU THINK! there are those that complain how crooked the investment markets are or are afraid of impending doom and they generally end up with little assets saved because they belive that to be true and never invest , or you have those that expect politics to save them and if their party gets in things will be okay...
Yup! There is a correlation between optimism and the risk taking that comes with successfully building wealth.

I'm also puzzled by the train of thought one must have to constantly need to consume doomsday blogs and pursue media sources specifically because of their negative message. I hadn't thought about the possibility of some of the posters who spam the same sites over and over getting paid for clicks though, interesting take.
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Old 10-02-2010, 12:33 PM
 
86,369 posts, read 83,854,153 times
Reputation: 62094
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
It really matters little if you are a pessimist or optimist, so long as your views are biased on opinion rather that logical assessment of facts, you will be wrong.
The trick is to be a realist, and to evaluate the data honestly regardless of your personal bias.
In the 80's and 90's it was fairly elementary to assess the impact demographics and 401K's were going to have on the stock market. It was a great opportunity to make serious wealth, although most people missed it.
By 2000 the market had turned to a unsustainable bubble with only one outcome possible. I was called a doomer then for going to cash and banking my profits.
From 2000 until 2006 it was apparent that the QE and real estate refinancing was going to spur massive appreciation in real estate and that was the place to be. By 2006 the appreciation had passed all expectations and again it became apparent the market was unsustainable and it was time to go to cash. I took this course myself and wrote here on CD why the real estate market was in serious trouble. I received the same criticisms then for my stance.
That brings us to today.
What data suggests the economic direction going forward? On the macro level there are three things which will have a huge impact.

First demographics. The boomers represent the largest segment of the population and have the largest impact on the economy. Their behavior will dictate economic trends. So what is happening to the boomers? They are getting old. They are also getting poor. They lost tons of money in 2001 and again in 2008. They are slowly coming to the conclusion they need to change their spend thrift ways, or spend their golden years eating dog food.
Economic impact? Negative

Second, peak oil. This is a subject few really understand. It is not an issue of running out of oil. It is a study of how the cost of oil impacts the economy.
After being studied by Lloyd's of London, the US Department of Defense, the UK industry taskforce on Peak Oil, Honda, and the German military, they have all come to the conclusion that we will reach the point of peak oil within 5 years. As the price of oil increases it has an exponential effect on the economy. To understand this, you need to realize what it takes to replace oil. 1 Gallon of Gas = 500 hours of human work output. If you believe oil can be replaced by green energy, I ask you to research the topic. In the short term, say the next 25 years it is not going to happen.
Economic impact? Negative

Third Sovereign insolvency. Debt and future liabilities have resulted in negative net worth for the governments of Germany, France, Portugal, the US, the UK, Spain, Ireland, and Greece. And not by just a little bit, but exceptionally so, ranging from more than 450% of GDP in the case of Germany on the 'low' end to well over 1,500% of GDP for Greece. The US, the largest capital market and borrower, even the most optimistic budget estimates foresee another decade of crushing deficits that will grow the official deficit by some $9 trillion and the real deficit by perhaps another $20 to $30 trillion. Implication of various governments going deeper into debt is that a string of sovereign defaults lies in the future. Due to their interconnected borrowings and lending’s, one may topple the next like dominoes. Every single country is seeking a path to a weaker relative currency. The problem is obvious: Everybody cannot simultaneously have a weaker currency. Nor can everybody have a positive trade balance. Results, currency debasement, and higher taxes.
Economic impact? Negative

The macro economic picture is clear. These are facts and not my opinion. If you can present data that disproves any of it I would truly like to see it. If not you may want to begin to prepare. Fore warned is fore armed.
well now that you got the inside track what are you doing about it? and if your wrong will your plan leave you financially behind where you should have been?


i know in my life i have seen the world is ending doom and gloom starting back in the 1970's....inflation was raveging us and the future was bleak with inflation projected to go higher. the prime rate was 21%. or so..nuclear war with the russians was not if but when .... we had long gas lines and total collapse of the economy was a given. taxes in the future would be out of sight..

even business week magazine joined the doomsdayers with its tombstone on the cover issue officially declaring equities dead as an asset class.


well here i am approaching retirement , financially we did very well, we have the lowest income taxes in history, plenty of gas, the russians faded away and deflation is a bigger reality then inflation.


if thats not proof of why dont bet the ranch on what you think will happen then no one can ever convince you.

Last edited by mathjak107; 10-02-2010 at 12:43 PM..
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Old 10-02-2010, 02:17 PM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 16,034,123 times
Reputation: 19289
Quote:
Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE View Post
$10 a gallon gas? Never happen. What will happen is that the price will decline again. I bet we are way under $3 a gallon within a couple years.
Nope. You're forgetting the E85 Ethanol Fuel Standard. Gasoline prices are no longer a function of oil supply, production capacity and available, it is also a function of the supply of corn, the production capacity of ethanol plants, and the availability of corn.

If next year, there is a rust, or fungus, floods or bad weather, or even a locust plague -- yeah, laugh if you want --

Australia faces worst plague of locusts in 75 years - Nature, Environment - The Independent

and acres of corn are damaged, then you pay $6-$10 for gasoline.
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Old 10-02-2010, 03:30 PM
 
59,613 posts, read 46,522,849 times
Reputation: 36955
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
This is interesting... In all the time I have participated in this forum, I have never suggested that anyone of a opposing viewpoint not present their point of view. I may not agree with what some people say on the forum but I always respect a person’s right to express it. After all that is what this country is all about. Freedom.
I must admit, and will no doubt be accused of being a tin foil hat for saying so, but it makes me really wonder what the agenda is of people who would stifle the right of others to speak or present their views. They clearly do not subscribe to the principals of the Constitution, or the principals and foundations of the United States and what it stands for, so what exactly do they believe, and what is their agenda?
He asked you to stop because he found the posts annoyingly repetitive.

Being asked to stop making annoying posts is not censorship nor against the principals of free speech.

In fact, your trying to portray the OP as violating rights etc. is arguably a further step towards stifling THEIR free speech. Ironic and sad that I even have to point this out.

Oh wait, am I now part of the conspiracy to stifle your free speech because I dared express my thoughts on the matter. Melodrama....<gag>
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