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Old 10-02-2010, 03:38 PM
 
16 posts, read 17,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
well now that you got the inside track what are you doing about it? and if your wrong will your plan leave you financially behind where you should have been?


i know in my life i have seen the world is ending doom and gloom starting back in the 1970's....inflation was raveging us and the future was bleak with inflation projected to go higher. the prime rate was 21%. or so..nuclear war with the russians was not if but when .... we had long gas lines and total collapse of the economy was a given. taxes in the future would be out of sight..

even business week magazine joined the doomsdayers with its tombstone on the cover issue officially declaring equities dead as an asset class.


well here i am approaching retirement , financially we did very well, we have the lowest income taxes in history, plenty of gas, the russians faded away and deflation is a bigger reality then inflation.


if thats not proof of why dont bet the ranch on what you think will happen then no one can ever convince you.
You didn't even attempt to give an argument against the points he made. All you said was 'seen it before.' What jim said is completely valid, if not a little 'Glass half empty.'

There are more things coming into play now than we realize. You should read up on peak oil. More than anything that is what i'm worried about. It's not really supposed to start bothering us for a good 10-30 years, but when it does, it will, and you can't ignore that.
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Old 10-02-2010, 03:57 PM
 
86,172 posts, read 83,691,556 times
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the proof is this:its always the things not even on the radar that will always change the course of events. no matter how obvious things look to play out odds are they will not.

since the proof will be that which isnt even known yet there is no proof yet, but time will show once again its that stuff from left field that wins and not us that think we have it all figured out.
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Old 10-02-2010, 05:25 PM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 16,022,497 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjcs996 View Post
You should read up on peak oil.
Peak oil is not an issue in the short term. You want to look 40-50 years down the road, okay, but for now it's a non-event.
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Old 10-02-2010, 07:23 PM
 
16 posts, read 17,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Peak oil is not an issue in the short term. You want to look 40-50 years down the road, okay, but for now it's a non-event.
Yeah, I mentioned in my post that it isn't really an issue right now. I never claimed my post was looking at the short term
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Old 10-02-2010, 10:47 PM
 
9,840 posts, read 20,553,550 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Nope. You're forgetting the E85 Ethanol Fuel Standard. Gasoline prices are no longer a function of oil supply, production capacity and available, it is also a function of the supply of corn, the production capacity of ethanol plants, and the availability of corn.

If next year, there is a rust, or fungus, floods or bad weather, or even a locust plague -- yeah, laugh if you want --

Australia faces worst plague of locusts in 75 years - Nature, Environment - The Independent

and acres of corn are damaged, then you pay $6-$10 for gasoline.
No, not at all. The standard is E10 not E85. E85 is 85% ethanol and not required anywhere due to cars needing some modifications to run E85. GM makes duel fuel vehicles and you can find E85 at some gas stations in the midwest.

If the corn crop is somehow damaged someday and it's that bad then either the gubment can relax it's standards or we can import ethanol(probably already do).

Using corn to make ethanol is wasteful but using plants like sugar cane is not. Brazil has a pretty good system set up to produce ethanol and the leftover biomass is used to fuel power stations.
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Old 10-02-2010, 10:58 PM
 
9,840 posts, read 20,553,550 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
the proof is this:its always the things not even on the radar that will always change the course of events. no matter how obvious things look to play out odds are they will not.

since the proof will be that which isnt even known yet there is no proof yet, but time will show once again its that stuff from left field that wins and not us that think we have it all figured out.
Yep. If one goes back and reads books from the 50's to 80's about stuff that was supposed to happen, much of it never panned out or happened the way people thought.

When I was in elementary school in 1985 and wanted to be an Army officer, I fully and completely expected to be serving in the 1990's in the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment in Fulda Gap in Germany staring over at the Russkis waiting for them to invade Germany.

Fulda Gap is now a museum and the border between East and West Germany is nearly forgotten.

What people never factor in is unexpected events and changes.

I do know that humans have always adapted to their environment. Peak Oil to me is nonsense. Energy, oil and gas companies are in business to make a profit and survive. If oil completely vanishes in 30 years(it wont but if it did) those companies will find other products to sell. In many countries around the world natural gas is already a common fuel and ethanol has almost totally replaced gasoline in Brazil. It's not like we don't have solutions or that solutions can be found.

The end of the world people are glass half empty people. They fail to grasp that people find solutions to problems and that most people strive to make a good life for themselves and in doing that they do the same for others. There will always be problems and issues to overcome but impossible, no.
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Old 10-03-2010, 05:01 AM
 
86,172 posts, read 83,691,556 times
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exactly the point im trying to make.

i always point out that the biggest financial calamaties and drops in our markets all come from new highs..

when things couldnt look better for investors and money is pouring into the markets as invstors see blue skies ahead something not even known yet comes from left field and alters that outlook.

all the biggest gains come from the depths of hell when things couldnt look worse and look they will be getting worse still.

again events not even on the radar spin things around.

but those with their crystal balls still attempt to argue things based on what they think they see ahead and who knows one day they may even be right.
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Old 10-03-2010, 07:58 AM
 
8,265 posts, read 11,227,076 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
all the biggest gains come from the depths of hell when things couldnt look worse and look they will be getting worse still.
.... and those who simply throw up their hands and declare the end is neigh will again fail to capitalize on the opportunities, instead merely turning their eyes towards what next future doomsday calamity can be fretted over...
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Old 10-03-2010, 09:10 AM
 
86,172 posts, read 83,691,556 times
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thats generally the only outcome you can bet the ranch on.....

i still have all my gold bug oriented newsletters from the 80's with all the predictions they made from the data available back then .

its amazing that not 1 thing out of more then a dozen panned out.
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Old 10-03-2010, 11:17 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,647,933 times
Reputation: 5180
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Peak oil is not an issue in the short term. You want to look 40-50 years down the road, okay, but for now it's a non-event.
"The US Department of Defense, the UK industry taskforce on Peak Oil, Honda, and the German military, they have all come to the conclusion that we will reach the point of peak oil within 5 years".
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