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Old 10-03-2010, 10:25 AM
 
Location: IN
22,361 posts, read 38,975,797 times
Reputation: 14903

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If you think that the filthy tar sand production of oil in Alberta will save us from peak oil you would be dreaming. Demand will exponentially increase because of China and India. The threshold for producing from the tar sands is in the $70-80 a barrel range. Any lower and it is not as economically viable- paricularly below $50 due to the energy being needed to produce the crude is more than what is recovered. We have the tech to make highly efficient vehicles that get over 100mpg easily. We will need that tech as soon as the global growth model returns with a vengance. Be prepared for $150-200 a barrel oil soon. We have gone through a very long recession and oil is still around $80 a barrel. What does that say?!
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Old 10-03-2010, 11:11 AM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 16,058,237 times
Reputation: 19294
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanneroo View Post
No, not at all. The standard is E10 not E85. E85 is 85% ethanol and not required anywhere due to cars needing some modifications to run E85. GM makes duel fuel vehicles and you can find E85 at some gas stations in the midwest.
You're forgetting that full implementation of the E95 Standard isn't until 2012.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
"The US Department of Defense, the UK industry taskforce on Peak Oil, Honda, and the German military, they have all come to the conclusion that we will reach the point of peak oil within 5 years".
So what? They have reached that conclusion every year for the last 30 years.

Maybe one day they'll be right.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
We have the tech to make highly efficient vehicles that get over 100mpg easily. We will need that tech as soon as the global growth model returns with a vengance.
Then you will ruin your economy.

I've explained this more times than I care to do so, thus I'll just highlight some talking points.

1) You benefit dramatically from the quantity of oil you use for gasoline in automobiles. Speaking in terms of Economics, that benefit is derived from something called 'Economies of Scale."

2) It is precisely, exactly, clearly, absolutely, accurately, as well, correctly, definitely, even, expressly, for a fact, for sure, just so, literally, no mistake, on the button, on the money, on the nose, plumb, right, sharp, smack, smack-dab, specifically, square, squarely, strictly because you don't get 100 mpg that you can have all the cheap things you have.

3) Your world (in the US) is inextricably linked to oil. You are married to oil, and her name is specifically "Foreign Light Imported Oil" and no judge will grant you a divorce.

4) If a judge should go insane and grant you a divorce from "Foreign Light Imported Oil" then you will pay alimony through the freaking nose for the rest of your miserable life, because that will be about 5 Million jobs directly or indirectly related to "Foreign Light Imported Oil" that you will lose and never get back.

When I say you are inextricably linked to oil and that oil is your life I mean that in every literal sense.

You drink "Foreign Light Imported Oil" all the live long day every day. It is the artificial colorings and flavorings in your beverages.

You eat "Foreign Light Imported Oil" all the live long day every day. It is the artificial colorings and flavorings in your food, and by the way, it has to have those artificial colorings or flavorings or you won't eat it as you have already proven in the past because it looks funky and tastes like crap (yeah that's why a bunch of companies went belly up when micro-waves first became popular because that was before International Flavors and Wild Flavors and Givaudan were making their oil goo for food).

Everything you touch has "Foreign Light Imported Oil" in it from the soaps and shampoos, to the hair gel and colorings, to shaving cream to dish detergent to liquid laundry detergent to every single cosmetic currently made.

It's also in the all of the clothes you wear. Why do you think you have 58 shades of blue instead of 3 shades?

Every single pharmaceutical that has come out of lab since 1994 is full of "Foreign Light Imported Oil" (where do you think "gel-caps" come from?).

So go ahead and get happy with your cars that get 100 mpg.

You'll just be slitting your own throat.

Reduce your demand of "Foreign Light Imported Oil" and reduce the demand for gasoline and you decrease the supply of petro-chemical feed stocks used to manufacture and produce your entire life.

And when Supply decreases while Demand remains constant or increases, what happens to Price?

Oh, yeah, it goes up. Congratulations.

I'm laughing at the superior intellect.
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Old 10-03-2010, 11:16 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,656,634 times
Reputation: 5180
Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
If you think that the filthy tar sand production of oil in Alberta will save us from peak oil you would be dreaming. Demand will exponentially increase because of China and India. The threshold for producing from the tar sands is in the $70-80 a barrel range. Any lower and it is not as economically viable- paricularly below $50 due to the energy being needed to produce the crude is more than what is recovered. We have the tech to make highly efficient vehicles that get over 100mpg easily. We will need that tech as soon as the global growth model returns with a vengance. Be prepared for $150-200 a barrel oil soon. We have gone through a very long recession and oil is still around $80 a barrel. What does that say?!
This is right. The issue is not running out of oil. The issue is running out of cheap oil. A reduction of 2% in world production will have a huge impact on prices. It is also a issue of human nature which is when their is a perceived shortage of something people and nations tend to hoard. Many countries, who are exporters of oil today, will need to cut exports in order to satisfy domestic consumption in the future.
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Old 10-03-2010, 11:20 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,656,634 times
Reputation: 5180
Quote:
So what? They have reached that conclusion every year for the last 30 years.

Maybe one day they'll be right.
Do you have some proof of this statement?
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Old 10-03-2010, 06:52 PM
 
9,840 posts, read 20,586,564 times
Reputation: 7668
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
You're forgetting that full implementation of the E95 Standard isn't until 2012.
Um, the US wont be switching over to 95% ethanol in 15 months.

You can't run high concentrations of ethanol, even over 10% in regular engines without ruining them very quickly as ethanol corrodes certain materials.
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Old 10-03-2010, 08:42 PM
 
Location: IN
22,361 posts, read 38,975,797 times
Reputation: 14903
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
You're forgetting that full implementation of the E95 Standard isn't until 2012.



So what? They have reached that conclusion every year for the last 30 years.

Maybe one day they'll be right.



Then you will ruin your economy.

I've explained this more times than I care to do so, thus I'll just highlight some talking points.

1) You benefit dramatically from the quantity of oil you use for gasoline in automobiles. Speaking in terms of Economics, that benefit is derived from something called 'Economies of Scale."

2) It is precisely, exactly, clearly, absolutely, accurately, as well, correctly, definitely, even, expressly, for a fact, for sure, just so, literally, no mistake, on the button, on the money, on the nose, plumb, right, sharp, smack, smack-dab, specifically, square, squarely, strictly because you don't get 100 mpg that you can have all the cheap things you have.

3) Your world (in the US) is inextricably linked to oil. You are married to oil, and her name is specifically "Foreign Light Imported Oil" and no judge will grant you a divorce.

4) If a judge should go insane and grant you a divorce from "Foreign Light Imported Oil" then you will pay alimony through the freaking nose for the rest of your miserable life, because that will be about 5 Million jobs directly or indirectly related to "Foreign Light Imported Oil" that you will lose and never get back.

When I say you are inextricably linked to oil and that oil is your life I mean that in every literal sense.

You drink "Foreign Light Imported Oil" all the live long day every day. It is the artificial colorings and flavorings in your beverages.

You eat "Foreign Light Imported Oil" all the live long day every day. It is the artificial colorings and flavorings in your food, and by the way, it has to have those artificial colorings or flavorings or you won't eat it as you have already proven in the past because it looks funky and tastes like crap (yeah that's why a bunch of companies went belly up when micro-waves first became popular because that was before International Flavors and Wild Flavors and Givaudan were making their oil goo for food).

Everything you touch has "Foreign Light Imported Oil" in it from the soaps and shampoos, to the hair gel and colorings, to shaving cream to dish detergent to liquid laundry detergent to every single cosmetic currently made.

It's also in the all of the clothes you wear. Why do you think you have 58 shades of blue instead of 3 shades?

Every single pharmaceutical that has come out of lab since 1994 is full of "Foreign Light Imported Oil" (where do you think "gel-caps" come from?).

So go ahead and get happy with your cars that get 100 mpg.

You'll just be slitting your own throat.

Reduce your demand of "Foreign Light Imported Oil" and reduce the demand for gasoline and you decrease the supply of petro-chemical feed stocks used to manufacture and produce your entire life.

And when Supply decreases while Demand remains constant or increases, what happens to Price?

Oh, yeah, it goes up. Congratulations.

I'm laughing at the superior intellect.
You diverted my question into an off-topic tangent about how oil is ingrained in nearly every consumer product. However, I already know that. The issue is multi-faceted with respect to miles per gallon that vehicles can achieve. If we increase efficiency we reduce some of the demand for tar sands- which is equivalent to an enormous coal mine.
Of course the big pharma, big ag, etc want cheap oil, but these big corps have to compete for whatever natural resources that are out there based on supply and demand relative to consumption level changes in developing countries.
Right now, the CPI has stayed flat as inflationary trends are low. That could change if the developing countries ramp up growth and demand for energy increases.
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Old 10-03-2010, 08:48 PM
 
28,880 posts, read 31,549,264 times
Reputation: 30132
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango View Post
No, it's good for us as a country. Irrational fear and hypervigilance keeps the real thing from creeping in unnoticed and actually happening.
That's what I'm thinking. When the majority of people in a society don't think their society can fall apart is when the collapse happens.

Last edited by mysticaltyger; 10-03-2010 at 09:05 PM..
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Old 10-03-2010, 08:52 PM
 
28,880 posts, read 31,549,264 times
Reputation: 30132
Quote:
Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE View Post
$10 a gallon gas? Never happen. What will happen is that the price will decline again. I bet we are way under $3 a gallon within a couple years.
Not gonna happen. It's too expensive to drill now. All the cheap oil has been drilled.
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Old 10-04-2010, 01:57 AM
 
86,824 posts, read 84,209,960 times
Reputation: 62514
you guys are tooooo funny: basically whatever happens happens and to try to predict is just silly. to be honest i wouldnt waste 1 minute trying to predict the future direction of things. i know i cant....

the real question is whats your financial plan? and what if your wrong?

thats whats important and that is where your thinking should be.

a good financial plan DOESNT RULE OUT UNCERTAINTY,IT PLANS FOR IT.

instead of trying to predict peak oil or the demise of the country your thoughts should be in better constructing a portfolio that allows you to profit and never be devastated by any economic event be it deflation or hyper-inflation etc. you need to think more about that plan no matter what the outcome is just in case your soothsaying is wrong.

generally you end up with analysis paralysis and never act once you start anayzing all the what ifs...the successful person puts more into planning then worrying about things that may never come to pass.
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Old 10-04-2010, 02:54 AM
 
86,824 posts, read 84,209,960 times
Reputation: 62514
Quote:
Originally Posted by wanneroo View Post
Um, the US wont be switching over to 95% ethanol in 15 months.

You can't run high concentrations of ethanol, even over 10% in regular engines without ruining them very quickly as ethanol corrodes certain materials.
higher quantities of ethanol in nyc then stated on the pump (10%)has caused many high pressure fuel pumps in the turbos to fail in bmws.at first bmw denied the warrany claims and said it was a fuel issue but now they issued an extended warranty to cover them. high ethanol destroys lots of components in a car.
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