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The good news is that the much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen. That is the message from leading business cycle indicators, which are unmistakably veering away from the recession track, following the patterns seen in post-World War II slowdowns that didn't lead to recession.
For 25 years, we've personally spent every working day studying recessions and recoveries. Based on our work and that of our colleagues at ECRI, we've called the last three recessions and recoveries without any false alarms, including an accurate forecast of the end of the most recent recession in the summer of 2009.
After completing an exhaustive review of key drivers of the business cycle, ranging from credit to inventories and measures of labor market conditions, we can forecast with confidence that the economy will avoid a double dip.
But the bad news is that a revival in economic growth is not yet in sight. The slowing of economic growth that began in mid-2010 will continue through early 2011. Thus, private sector job growth, which is already easing, will slow further, keeping the double-dip debate alive.
I definitely agree with the feeble economic growth. I remember a year ago when people were bickering what shape the recovery would be with some advocating a sharp V, that just didn't seem reasonable with the housing and unemployment situations showing little sign of improvement.
I called "L" shape last year. I couldn't see any "V" with so much debt outstanding. And it's still outstanding. Only the government can pile debt on top of debt and still be rated A.
We seem to be holding at this point..very anemic. Almost like a holding pattern.
I hope this is bottom that we're skimming but I'm not totally sure of that.
Seriously how much impact do you think technology has? I mean imagine if we still had key-punch operators, or were using the "stubby pencil" method of accounting.
With the technology, things happen faster and a lot smoother. Financial transactions take place in a matter of minutes or hours, instead of 3 to 15 days (or longer).
I definitely agree with the feeble economic growth. I remember a year ago when people were bickering what shape the recovery would be with some advocating a sharp V, that just didn't seem reasonable with the housing and unemployment situations showing little sign of improvement.
Definitely agreed we are not going to have double-dip, because we still on the first dip. The recession never recover. Unless you are refer to Wall Street, which they never have a recession. They still paying out billions of bonus.
The recession never recover. Unless you are refer to Wall Street, which they never have a recession. They still paying out billions of bonus.
So I should dismiss the more common definitions of recession that pegged the last one as ending in 2009, and use the one where it is defined as whether a billion dollar bonus can be paid out? Nope.
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