U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 10-28-2010, 01:16 PM
 
8,265 posts, read 11,245,360 times
Reputation: 4788

Advertisements

Economic Cycle Research Institute: No double-dip recession - Oct. 28, 2010

Quote:
The good news is that the much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen. That is the message from leading business cycle indicators, which are unmistakably veering away from the recession track, following the patterns seen in post-World War II slowdowns that didn't lead to recession.

For 25 years, we've personally spent every working day studying recessions and recoveries. Based on our work and that of our colleagues at ECRI, we've called the last three recessions and recoveries without any false alarms, including an accurate forecast of the end of the most recent recession in the summer of 2009.

After completing an exhaustive review of key drivers of the business cycle, ranging from credit to inventories and measures of labor market conditions, we can forecast with confidence that the economy will avoid a double dip.

But the bad news is that a revival in economic growth is not yet in sight. The slowing of economic growth that began in mid-2010 will continue through early 2011. Thus, private sector job growth, which is already easing, will slow further, keeping the double-dip debate alive.
I definitely agree with the feeble economic growth. I remember a year ago when people were bickering what shape the recovery would be with some advocating a sharp V, that just didn't seem reasonable with the housing and unemployment situations showing little sign of improvement.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 10-29-2010, 07:01 AM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 77,067,933 times
Reputation: 27654
I called "L" shape last year. I couldn't see any "V" with so much debt outstanding. And it's still outstanding. Only the government can pile debt on top of debt and still be rated A.

We seem to be holding at this point..very anemic. Almost like a holding pattern.
I hope this is bottom that we're skimming but I'm not totally sure of that.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-29-2010, 08:27 AM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 16,064,047 times
Reputation: 19294
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
I called "L" shape last year.
That's funny.

Seriously how much impact do you think technology has? I mean imagine if we still had key-punch operators, or were using the "stubby pencil" method of accounting.

With the technology, things happen faster and a lot smoother. Financial transactions take place in a matter of minutes or hours, instead of 3 to 15 days (or longer).
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-29-2010, 05:06 PM
 
3,469 posts, read 3,376,709 times
Reputation: 1552
Quote:
Originally Posted by slackjaw View Post
Economic Cycle Research Institute: No double-dip recession - Oct. 28, 2010



I definitely agree with the feeble economic growth. I remember a year ago when people were bickering what shape the recovery would be with some advocating a sharp V, that just didn't seem reasonable with the housing and unemployment situations showing little sign of improvement.

Definitely agreed we are not going to have double-dip, because we still on the first dip. The recession never recover. Unless you are refer to Wall Street, which they never have a recession. They still paying out billions of bonus.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-31-2010, 12:10 PM
 
8,265 posts, read 11,245,360 times
Reputation: 4788
Quote:
Originally Posted by cw30000 View Post
The recession never recover. Unless you are refer to Wall Street, which they never have a recession. They still paying out billions of bonus.
So I should dismiss the more common definitions of recession that pegged the last one as ending in 2009, and use the one where it is defined as whether a billion dollar bonus can be paid out? Nope.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2021, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top