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Old 10-29-2010, 04:19 PM
 
Location: San Diego California
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Guess What's Coming To Dinner: Inflation! | FINANCIAL SENSE

The author makes a case that we may already be in an environment of stagflation, and that QEll will only make things worse.
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Old 10-29-2010, 04:50 PM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
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Anyone else experiencing deja vu here?
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Old 10-29-2010, 05:11 PM
 
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stagflation is historically only a short term temporary condition that leads to one of the 4 main possibilities.

prosperity
inflation
recession
depression

which one ? beats me ..i wont even guess
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Old 10-29-2010, 05:39 PM
 
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Stagflation in Germany after WW1 destroyed the German. And how long does it take them to rebuild the country?
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Old 10-30-2010, 03:06 AM
 
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stagflation in america has never been very long at all. the 70's was about the worst we ever saw. its hard to actually define stagflation as its when you teeter totter back and forth between recession and inflation which are 2 of the main scenerios.

i guess stagflation is that period of time when general price increases are happening around you but wage growth hasnt happened to you yet. as soon as you see that wage growth happen to you your no longer in stagflation. your neighbor may be but your not. when his raise comes thru ,well then hes not in stagflation and so on and so on....its tough to define exacley when that term ends country wide but its never been considered one of the 4 main economic scenerios as its basically a bridge to one of the 4 eventually..

Last edited by mathjak107; 10-30-2010 at 03:37 AM..
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Old 10-30-2010, 07:40 AM
 
Location: Ohio
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I don't see any evidence of real inflation.

I mean between 1970 and 1980 inflation was running about 11% per year.

That means if you put $100 in the bank in June of 1970 and left it there by June of 1980 it was worth -$13, yeah, you lost the entire $100 and then some.

The last 10 years have been really mild.

If you put $100 in the bank in June of 2000 then now it would be worth roughly $74-$75, so that isn't too bad (about 2.5% per year).

Over the last 20 years the US has had one of the lowest inflation rates of all countries, and it has generally been about 1%-3% per year (with a few odd years here and there).

The writer of the article needs to do a lot more research, preferably after he gets a degree in economics.
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Old 10-30-2010, 07:46 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
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We have explained this many times over: the average US worker lacking competitiveness on a global scale is experiencing and will continue to experience "stagflation", probably over the next 15-30 years, while those with internationally competitive skills, both companies and individuals, are and will be able to ride the wave of the ongoing global spread of industrialization.

It really is as simple as all that. The ugly part is how the transition is brokered, like making sausage, or an omelette as Vladmir used to say.

Good Luck!
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Old 10-30-2010, 07:50 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
I don't see any evidence of real inflation.

I mean between 1970 and 1980 inflation was running about 11% per year.

That means if you put $100 in the bank in June of 1970 and left it there by June of 1980 it was worth -$13, yeah, you lost the entire $100 and then some.

The last 10 years have been really mild.

If you put $100 in the bank in June of 2000 then now it would be worth roughly $74-$75, so that isn't too bad (about 2.5% per year).

Over the last 20 years the US has had one of the lowest inflation rates of all countries, and it has generally been about 1%-3% per year (with a few odd years here and there).

The writer of the article needs to do a lot more research, preferably after he gets a degree in economics.
Did you read the part of the article where they discussed measuring inflation the same way it was measured in the 70's? Measured using the same methodology we would now have inflation of 8%+.
Attacking the author instead of the facts of the article is a cheap underhanded trick and undermines the credibility of the poster.
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Old 10-30-2010, 08:08 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,640,067 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
We have explained this many times over: the average US worker lacking competitiveness on a global scale is experiencing and will continue to experience "stagflation", probably over the next 15-30 years, while those with internationally competitive skills, both companies and individuals, are and will be able to ride the wave of the ongoing global spread of industrialization.

It really is as simple as all that. The ugly part is how the transition is brokered, like making sausage, or an omelette as Vladmir used to say.

Good Luck!
It is a little disingenuous to blame the current economic situation on the US worker. The crux of the problem is and always has been the multinational corporation’s greed and willingness to sell out the people of the US for greater profits.
The problems started with free trade agreements designed to allow multinationals to exploit foreign labor to expand profits. The explosion of the stock market during the 80's and 90's is proof of the wealth made from this process. The environment of easy credit was created parallel to this free trade in order to deceive the people and encourage the belief that free trade was working for them also.
The truth is their incomes stagnated, and their gains in lifestyle were based on ever increasing levels of debt, perpetrated on fraudulent property values.
Compare this period of time to the 60's when the working people were receiving a larger percentage of the pie, and the stock market was showing very slow growth.
There is only so much pie, and when the wealthy steal the lions share, the working people become impoverished, and recession results.
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Old 10-30-2010, 01:31 PM
 
Location: Ohio
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Did you read the part of the article where they discussed measuring inflation the same way it was measured in the 70's?
I don't have to read the article. You posted it, so everyone with a brain knows it's crap.

I already knew the methodology changed since we covered that in class and actually crunched numbers.

Apparently, everyone except you and the author is aware that the old method usually overstated inflation, but sometimes it actually understated the amount of inflation. Other than that, the difference is negligible.

I'm aware that people claim the new method understates inflation for the heinous purpose of denying COLA raises for Social Security beneficiaries and military members, and as soon as someone actually provides credible evidence other than mere speculation, I'll actually look into it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Measured using the same methodology we would now have inflation of 8%+.
Again, I would point out that the old method often overstated inflation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Attacking the author instead of the facts of the article is a cheap underhanded trick and undermines the credibility of the poster.
Well, then post something by authors who actually state facts.
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