U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 11-03-2010, 10:41 AM
 
8,265 posts, read 11,224,668 times
Reputation: 4788

Advertisements

Interesting article from CNN

Will the economy save Obama's job? - Nov. 3, 2010

They have a survey of economists have employment improving at a pace that will position Obama well for reelection in 2012, since public sentiment on the direction of economic health is obviously such a large factor in elections.



I'm not much into politics but I would be interested in hearing others' thoughts on the rage on the unemployment survey from that graph.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 11-03-2010, 03:58 PM
 
2,592 posts, read 4,875,812 times
Reputation: 1947
Yea, it will be like FDR where nothing really gets better but we keep reelecting the same loser. Either that most of the people will be on unemployment or federal benefits so they will have to vote for Obama to keep their pay.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-03-2010, 04:11 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,661 posts, read 78,651,611 times
Reputation: 36335
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeavingMA View Post
Yea, it will be like FDR where nothing really gets better but we keep reelecting the same loser..
You mean like the way the depression lasted right up to 1946, when we finally got rid of him?
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-03-2010, 05:46 PM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 16,016,362 times
Reputation: 19288
Quote:
Originally Posted by slackjaw View Post
I'm not much into politics but I would be interested in hearing others' thoughts on the rage on the unemployment survey from that graph.
Then why don't you go to the BLS site?

The report published by the BLS states quite clearly that between 2008 and 2018 there are 50.9 Million projected job openings.

That means that the BLS is projecting on average about 5.09 Million job openings per year. That averages out to 424,166 per month.

The BLS states quite clearly that 67% of those job openings will be created by the retiring Boomers. Assuming the BLS is correct in their assessment, which was made in 2007 for the period 2008-2018, and understanding that the BLS did not anticipate a major recession, that would mean that 284,191 job openings would be available each month because a Boomer retired (some jobs will become available due to voluntary and involuntary terminations as well).

According to the BLS, the unemployment rate will remain over 8% for at least 5-6 years before starting to decline and would eventually drop to about 6% in 2018.

In order to significantly reduce the unemployment rate in the next two years, about 25 million jobs would need to be created or opened up. Don't forget there those who graduated high school or college who haven't been able to find work in the last 2-3 years or who are working menial labor jobs or part time jobs, and many are still living with their parents. The administration would be remiss to ignore them.

In reality, they probably have a better chance at employment than older workers who would demand more pay and benefits.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-03-2010, 07:20 PM
 
2,592 posts, read 4,875,812 times
Reputation: 1947
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
You mean like the way the depression lasted right up to 1946, when we finally got rid of him?
Yea, that was part of it.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-03-2010, 07:23 PM
 
2,592 posts, read 4,875,812 times
Reputation: 1947
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Then why don't you go to the BLS site?

The report published by the BLS states quite clearly that between 2008 and 2018 there are 50.9 Million projected job openings.

That means that the BLS is projecting on average about 5.09 Million job openings per year. That averages out to 424,166 per month.

The BLS states quite clearly that 67% of those job openings will be created by the retiring Boomers. Assuming the BLS is correct in their assessment, which was made in 2007 for the period 2008-2018, and understanding that the BLS did not anticipate a major recession, that would mean that 284,191 job openings would be available each month because a Boomer retired (some jobs will become available due to voluntary and involuntary terminations as well).

According to the BLS, the unemployment rate will remain over 8% for at least 5-6 years before starting to decline and would eventually drop to about 6% in 2018.

In order to significantly reduce the unemployment rate in the next two years, about 25 million jobs would need to be created or opened up. Don't forget there those who graduated high school or college who haven't been able to find work in the last 2-3 years or who are working menial labor jobs or part time jobs, and many are still living with their parents. The administration would be remiss to ignore them.

In reality, they probably have a better chance at employment than older workers who would demand more pay and benefits.
Although how many of those baby boomers are going to be able to retire now? That is what I would like to know. Also, like you stated the BLS made their assessment on how many jobs there were in 2007...well some of those jobs aren't coming back anytime soon. So some jobs will most likely never be filled.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-03-2010, 08:58 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,470 posts, read 18,229,914 times
Reputation: 4343
I don't think the unemployment is the primary issue, but rather asset values. If unemployment goes down to say 7.5%, but home values are down 15% from today and the DOW is trading in the 9,000 range then the biggest voting blocs (older folks) are still going to be doing poorly.

Also, I don't think most of those projections are considering the political shift, the recent shift to red could cause some serious problems. If the republicans are able to do what they want to do, then the unemployment situation could worsen, but more likely the government will be gridlocked for 2 years and things will just improve slowly over the next 2 years.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-03-2010, 09:15 PM
 
4,711 posts, read 11,510,869 times
Reputation: 3789
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
You mean like the way the depression lasted right up to 1946, when we finally got rid of him?

Wow, he must have been ripe, considering he died in April 1945...
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 11-04-2010, 08:20 AM
 
8,265 posts, read 11,224,668 times
Reputation: 4788
Quote:
Originally Posted by car54 View Post
Wow, he must have been ripe, considering he died in April 1945...
I've seen Mao, Lenin, and Ho Chi Minh they all looked fine in a Weekend at Bernie's sort of way.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2021, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top