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Old 11-19-2010, 10:03 AM
 
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I cannot conceive of such a thing. The US dollar is the basis upon which the entire world economy is built. I cannot accept that the Federal Reserve and other money minions who run the world would let the USA collapse and the FRN to become worthless, which would then cause much of their own wealth to evaporate. Even in the Great Depression the FRN held up. I can see a gigantic and cancer-level painful "correction" occurring worldwide, but a scenario where we are wheeling around wheel barrels full of dollars to buy a loaf of bread ala Weimar Germany is just not possible with the advanced technology we have. Please someone reassure me this could not happen as many of us here have several hundred thousand in CD's in banks and that's all we have.
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Old 11-19-2010, 10:25 AM
 
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It actually would have already collapsed if it were not the world's reserve currency. Regardless, no one knows when and if it will actually collapse. Personally, if I had hundreds of thousands of dollars in CD's I would cash them out and buy physical gold for wealth preservation.
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Old 11-19-2010, 11:38 AM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,795 posts, read 7,300,724 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
I cannot conceive of such a thing. The US dollar is the basis upon which the entire world economy is built. I cannot accept that the Federal Reserve and other money minions who run the world would let the USA collapse and the FRN to become worthless, which would then cause much of their own wealth to evaporate. Even in the Great Depression the FRN held up. I can see a gigantic and cancer-level painful "correction" occurring worldwide, but a scenario where we are wheeling around wheel barrels full of dollars to buy a loaf of bread ala Weimar Germany is just not possible with the advanced technology we have. Please someone reassure me this could not happen as many of us here have several hundred thousand in CD's in banks and that's all we have.
It is really not a matter of the dollar becoming worthless, that is not going to happen.
The problem is that the FED appears to be willing to impose higher imported goods prices on the American public in order to allow the banks to make billions in profits speculating with QE funds.
Higher inflation seems to be baked into the cake at this point, but the inflation will not be across the board.
The good news is that pressure is building to stop the FED from their current printing spree.
It looks as if political pressure both foreign and domestic will put an end to the FED / Banking using the world economy to enrichen themselves.
We have even got Ron Paul now as chair of the committee overseeing the FED.
The important thing is for the American people to wise up and begin to contact their elected representatives and tell them to support financial responsibility in government, or forfeit their votes in the coming elections.
It is time for the people to stand up and demand Washington work in their interests, and not the Banks.
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Old 11-19-2010, 11:43 AM
 
Location: Ohio
24,621 posts, read 19,208,282 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
I cannot conceive of such a thing.
Well, now you have something new to think about.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
The US dollar is the basis upon which the entire world economy is built.
Was. The operand here is "was."

You did that to yourselves. In the first place, you basically coerced the rest of the [free] world into adopting the US Dollar in order to get any assistance in rebuilding after WW II. Then, you conspired with the Brits to keep the East Bloc currencies from being traded on the world market, so people like me who traveled to the East frequently were forced to do illegal things like purchase Ost Marks in West German banks and then carry them across the border. Third, your foreign policy sucks. Go live in a US economic slave state for a few years, then report back. You'll have a different attitude. Finally, the rest of the world has decided it's time for a change, and you've been voted off the Island.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
I cannot accept that the Federal Reserve and other money minions who run the world would let the USA collapse and the FRN to become worthless, which would then cause much of their own wealth to evaporate.
The reason you can't accept it is because you aren't in touch with reality. might I suggest MediaFax as a news source in lieu of Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC or the network formerly known as the Clinton News Network.

Radio Moscow. The Financial Times. Any of the English language newspapers from India. Your local cable might have German news in English (Warner Cable in Cincinnati does).

You don't seem to be aware that other countries have been transforming their reserves. For example, Russia no longer has any US Dollars. They have Euros and Gold. The Swedes, Danes, Dutch, Saudis, Italians, French, Germans and about 80 other countries have either eliminated their US Dollar reserves or substantially reduced them. That may be in part why the US ceased publishing the M3 during Bush's first term.

I notice that so many here seem to have the greatest difficulty with numbers.

For example someone will say the US exported $4 Billion. That's just stupid.

There's a difference between exporting 40 Million items worth $4 Billion, and 40,000 things worth $4 Billion. So when you look at US export figures, the dollar amount is totally meaningless. You have to compare the dollar amount to the volume of trade.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
Even in the Great Depression the FRN held up.
No it didn't. The US Dollar was not the de facto currency for world trade or world banking reserves prior to the Bretton Woods Agreement (which you might want to read sometime).

Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
I can see a gigantic and cancer-level painful "correction" occurring worldwide, but a scenario where we are wheeling around wheel barrels full of dollars to buy a loaf of bread ala Weimar Germany is just not possible with the advanced technology we have.
Technology has nothing to do with it and the collapse of US currency need not result in hyper-inflation.

Not only that, but other countries are moving ahead of the US, spending far more in research and developing more things.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
Please someone reassure me this could not happen as many of us here have several hundred thousand in CD's in banks and that's all we have.
It'll be enough. You might have to move in with family members or share housing accommodations with total strangers to stretch it out, but you don't have to worry about hyper-inflation.

In fact it'll be about 15 years before you see any kind of inflation even remotely like the 1970s.
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Old 11-19-2010, 01:50 PM
 
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They have Euros and Gold.
I think the Euro is in greater danger of extinction than the dollar. There's talk of the European Union breaking up, commencing with Germany bailing and striking out on her own, while the PIIGS are cut loose to fend for themselves.
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Old 11-19-2010, 02:11 PM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,795 posts, read 7,300,724 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post
I think the Euro is in greater danger of extinction than the dollar. There's talk of the European Union breaking up, commencing with Germany bailing and striking out on her own, while the PIIGS are cut loose to fend for themselves.
It is kind of interesting to compare what is happening now, to WWII.
Only now it is more of an economic war, than a shooting one.
You have Germany reuniting, and basically crippling the rest of Europe financially.
And the US is wreaking havoc on economies world wide, and especially Japan.
Kind of makes you wonder if the world is going to end up as financially devastated in a few years, as it was physically devastated after WWII.
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Old 11-19-2010, 03:59 PM
 
Location: Backwoods of Maine
7,488 posts, read 10,507,792 times
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The Federal Reserve Note is already kaput. It has been since 1971 when Nixon stopped US creditors from redeeming dollars for gold. The only thing that keeps an unbacked fiat paper currency "alive" is confidence (read Martin Armstrong on this - good stuff). When the people lose confidence in a paper currency, it dies. Oftimes it dies via hyperinflation.

The Great Depression of the 1930's is no comparison to what's happening now. That was a stock market crash and a credit crunch; this is a currency crisis. Back then, the people had gold, until 1933 when it was confiscated and revalued, thus devaluing the dollar. But the people still had silver, in their coinage. After 1964, the dollar was devalued again, when they took our silver away. In 1971, it was devalued once again when Nixon did his "gold thing".

You should really read your history on this. Start by reading up on Argentina, 2001. Argentina took great pride in maintaining convertibilitad or convertibility to the US dollar, one - to - one. Then they corralled everybody's money into banks ("corallito") where they suspended convertibility, so that everyone held pesos again. Then they devalued the peso. People were prohibited from withdrawing more than $300 per month from the banks. Great distress and poverty ensued.

I second the motion to hold gold and silver. It is nobody's debt, nobody's promise to pay. It never goes to zero value. If you have hundreds of thousands, you should be holding 1/4 or more of that in precious metals. Don't expect a financial advisor to tell you this - they only make money if you are in a dollar-denominated investment.

As for us "bringing this on ourselves", I have only one thing to say: You don't know what you're talking about. We The People never authorized the un-Federal Reserve, never authorized it to print and devalue our currency. We have been impoverished by it. It transfers wealth from the working and middle classes to the very rich. Be thankful that hasn't happened in your own country - but I'll wager it has.
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Old 11-19-2010, 04:05 PM
 
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if Argentina is a case study for the USA, then things are looking up. Argentina took less than 7 years to get back onto her feet. Could we bounce back as quickly with a fresh start as well?
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Old 11-21-2010, 12:37 AM
 
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The US does not dictate or mandate pegged currencies anywhere. In fact it probably would argue against them most or all of the time.

Go ahead and hold metals if you really want to, but admit its speculation and taking a side. Be prepared for some good times and some bad times while you hold something you can't really do anything with. And if a financial collapse ever came about, good luck with easy use of all that metal.

In fact good luck holding onto it, I'd guess the real winners in such a scenario aren't the people with big stores of precious metals, but those with stores of big guns and knives. Just my "speculative guess".
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Old 11-21-2010, 04:03 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
9,400 posts, read 14,350,227 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thrillobyte View Post

The US dollar is the basis upon which the entire world economy is built.
I thought that the global economy was based on such things as interchangeable parts, assembly-line production, the steam engine, railways, the internal combustion engine, transforming the energy potential of fossil fuels, tractors for mass agricultural production, other motor vehicles and shipping for mass transport, electricity, pipelines and other transmission systems, telecommunications technology, information system technology, and management skills, social, political and economic.

In the past, empires rose and fell, along with their coinage, ideologies, even language, and there were still cattle to plow the fields, at least rivers and wells for water, in some cases acqueducts, carts and wooden boats and ships with rowers and sails to deliver things, stone cutters, carpenters, metal smiths, and so on.

The FRN could fade from history and we'd still have some combination of the above.

The agricultural powerhouses of 8,000 BC were not the same as those of 3,000 BC or 500 BC or 100 AD or 800 AD.

The industrial powerhouses of the 1800s-1900s may not be the same as those of the 2000s-2100s.

Some Roman frontier generals became the priests of local invading so-called tribes under various names looking to settle. Think about that deeply and compare it in due proportion to the relationship between contemporary politics and so-called terrorism.

My understanding is that some very wealthy US investors are giving up US citizenship and expatriating to certain Asian countries and elsewhere.

To be sure, history does not repeat, but it is helpful to know it, as some have already pointed out, and adjust accordingly.

In my view, what is at stake here is, economically, the viability going forward of the "classic" US suburban model in the face of the globalization of industrialization and competition for energy, on the one hand, and, ideologically and politically, US exceptionalism in world history, on the other.

My best guess is that the period of US exceptionalism in world history is over, the US is, in my view, increasingly more like any other country, though it will not collapse, but its classic surburban model will be transformed, domestically and globally, for better and worse, peacefully and violently, in the face of global competition, energy constraints, and its own social contradictions.

In my view, the main cause of the current Great Recession in the US, if we may agree use that term to describe the current situation, is the disconnect between domestic social policy and the realities of the globalization of industrialization. There are technical economic terms that also partially describe this, like loose monetary policy, trade deficit, budget deficit, unfunded entitlements, etc.

In any case, it is not too late for the US to come out of the Great Recession on balanced footing, but it would require better, even patriotic, leadership and the right set of policies, social and economic. But I do not recommend merely holding your breath, waiting for Godot, as it were.

One wild card may be the discovery/invention of energy forms that can supplement/replace fossil fuels on an equivalent basis. But the outcome of even that may depend on who gets there first and their ideology. Another wild card, of course, is another industrial global war, at some tension point in the competition for energy and control, and its outcome.

In the end, the reality of politics and economics is men in power, not institutions or acronyms like USA or FRN or even language or the -isms or -anities to describe the ideology of the day.

Good Luck!

Last edited by bale002; 11-21-2010 at 05:00 AM..
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