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Old 04-01-2011, 05:39 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,740,290 times
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YouTube - Peak oil and possible out come

Complete economic collapse, riots, unrest, martial law, and only the prepared will survive. The end of society is at our doorstep, and nobody, not even the US government, cares.
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Old 04-01-2011, 08:00 PM
 
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I watched the 7 minute video. I agree that could happen if Saudi Arabia is attacked and the oil fields were shut down. The likelihood of that happening though is slim.
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Old 04-01-2011, 08:44 PM
 
2,024 posts, read 4,822,075 times
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Well currently oil inventories are quite high due to an economy stuck in a depression but a United States collapse may happen due to the usual suspects like a overextended military, debt, financial crisis, broken political system, corporate welfare, out of control central bankers, etc.
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Old 04-01-2011, 11:12 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
7,090 posts, read 11,165,026 times
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Peak oil was a theory developed in 1956 by M. King Hubbert of Shell Oil where by 1970 oil production was supposed to decline. The original prediction was for all oil production. Well, it has been 40 years and peak oil morons still crow every year it's going to happen and everything will go to hell. Survivalists force fit the assumption when a number of years later US oil production peaked...to keep themselves terrified of the world at night with their gold, guns, and canned goods.

Considering OP's prediction of that happening in January (twice actually), overnight on March 11th, then 2 weeks ago, I would give little credence to anything the OP "predicts". Even if the OP's prediction was the sun rising tomorrow morning, I would still see it for myself before believing it.

The threads of economic apocalypse and doom seem to have all come directly after a thread written by the OP about an issue that doesn't seem to have been resolved. (//www.city-data.com/forum/chris...ind-peace.html) Please, find help and peace in life and you will find answers to stop the obsession.
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Old 04-01-2011, 11:37 PM
 
3,853 posts, read 12,033,340 times
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I used to believe in peak oil - not anymore. Heres why:

First, we have the technology to produce synthetic oil. Second, we have domestic energy sources that can fully sustain us. These energy sources are natural gas and coal.

If the above scenario were to play out here is what would happen. There would be a short term economic crisis. However, we would begin to switch over to converting cars and trucks to natural gas. Then we would then start converting coal to oil using various reactions. We haven't switched over yet because oil is still cheap and switching to natural gas or synthetic fuels requires lots of capital investment. However if oil is over 150$/barrel then you can convince investors to drop the 1-2$ billion to build large scale coal liquefaction plants.

So there you have it. No need to worry the free market will handle it.


YouTube - Coal to Diesel Conversion using State-of-the-Art Pyrolysis (Gasification) System (Revised Ver.)
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Old 04-02-2011, 01:52 AM
 
Location: The North
5,575 posts, read 9,855,092 times
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The funny thing is the peak oil theorists have no answer for an obvious question: Won't people just scale back their gas purchase/use if prices spike?

Oil and its products will get priced up long before they ever run out. People will start to decide the drive on the weekend isn't worth it first, then they'll resort to carpooling or taking public transit second. Those alone will effectively ration the supply in a few months time until even bigger longer lasting changes take hold such as people changing their choices in jobs, employers allowing for more flexible scheduling or working from home, and shippers and businesses changing how they deliver goods and how much they charge. Then a few years later choices of cars bought and where to live puts an even bigger dent in oil demand.

Where are the peak oil people on that? Or do they truly believe oil will go from 85 million barrels of production to near zero overnight?
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Old 04-02-2011, 09:24 AM
 
1,320 posts, read 3,334,085 times
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Even IF this were true or could hapen, bchris has started sooo many 'the world is ending topics', and been wrong, that they don't warrant serious thought. Never had I read anything positive from this poster. Must be in the middle of a very bad life.....
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Old 04-02-2011, 09:41 AM
 
Location: Troy, Il
764 posts, read 1,457,021 times
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The first two minutes of this video are fairly reasonable but then after that it is just one long stretch after another until the world ends.
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Old 04-02-2011, 09:49 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,661 posts, read 78,387,913 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Willy702 View Post
The funny thing is the peak oil theorists have no answer for an obvious question: Won't people just scale back their gas purchase/use if prices spike?

Oil and its products will get priced up long before they ever run out. People will start to decide the drive on the weekend isn't worth it first, then they'll resort to carpooling or taking public transit second. Those alone will effectively ration the supply in a few months time until even bigger longer lasting changes take hold such as people changing their choices in jobs, employers allowing for more flexible scheduling or working from home, and shippers and businesses changing how they deliver goods and how much they charge. Then a few years later choices of cars bought and where to live puts an even bigger dent in oil demand.

Where are the peak oil people on that? Or do they truly believe oil will go from 85 million barrels of production to near zero overnight?
Peak oil is not what happens when oil goes from 85 million barrels to zero. It happens when it needs to go above 85 million, and can't.

You're failing to take into account that most people have already locked themselves into a lifestyle that is oil/gas dependent. How are 100-million people going to abandon their homes which are not in walking distance to their work, their shopping, or even public transportation? People can't "start to decide" to do things different, when their lifestyle is already locked in place. Over a period, new families can make non-gas dependent choices, but you can't have construction of 100-million new homes in places where gas dependency is not a factor, and just board up the windows of most existing houses. Especially, with no gas to fuel the transport of all those building material to appropriate new sites.
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Old 04-02-2011, 10:43 AM
 
5,409 posts, read 10,328,301 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Willy702 View Post
The funny thing is the peak oil theorists have no answer for an obvious question: Won't people just scale back their gas purchase/use if prices spike?
Of course.

Peak Oil Theory -- or any other modeling of a resource that is taken and consumed -- is just a model of if you keep taking something, eventually you will run short of it. Not exactly rocket science.

All the Doomer nonsense glued on it was/is just that. Doomer nonsense. If demand stays high all down the production decline, prices stay high. If folks head off or stop Oil down the decline, prices collapse. Again, not rocket science.

Quote:
Oil and its products will get priced up long before they ever run out.
Yeah. That matches the legit theory.

Quote:
People will start to decide the drive on the weekend isn't worth it first, then they'll resort to carpooling or taking public transit second.
And if it goes per the typical pattern, they will cause a demand drop to the point the entire market goes into surplus (again, again, again)

Quote:
Those alone will effectively ration the supply in a few months time until even bigger longer lasting changes take hold such as people changing their choices in jobs, employers allowing for more flexible scheduling or working from home, and shippers and businesses changing how they deliver goods and how much they charge.
Truly sad part is that business folks are probably the hardest and last to change. Mind-boggling thing to behold. Anymore I have to caution myself -- Never underestimate the stupidity of the average US MBA.

In real practice, the folks that have the flexibility to go off Oil can do fine. Folks on the top can buy the electric / hybrid / whatever car.

Folks without jobs . . . not so much. They get the Oil hungry hand-me-downs, at best. My best guess in the Hummer -- H1, H2, H3 whatever -- will become the new ghetto-cruisers.

Sort of like the Titanic. Not such a big deal . . . if you had a seat in a lifeboat. Otherwise . . . your mileage may vary.

Quote:
Then a few years later choices of cars bought and where to live puts an even bigger dent in oil demand.
CAFE ratings did that very effectively in the 1980s.

Reason I am mentioning that is the CAFE rating system was direct .gov involvement AND it worked. None of the mythical magic free market nonsense.

Various .gov levels create, design and maintain the road systems that require Oil. They are built without bicycle and pedestrian ways, and no electric options. All with direct .gov guidance and involvement.

.Gov helped create the transportation Oil use, and profits from it (BIG taxes), and .gov will have to be directly involved in taking US off Oil.



Quote:

Where are the peak oil people on that? Or do they truly believe oil will go from 85 million barrels of production to near zero overnight?
You are correct, there is NOTHING in the legit theory like that. What you are observing are the antics of DDQ's (Doomer Drama Queens) who are sticking their own drama onto some basic science.
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