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Old 04-29-2011, 07:57 PM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 21,902,787 times
Reputation: 15773

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Quote:
Originally Posted by rkcarguy View Post
Watch the oil inventory reports posted each wednesday. You'll see that we log a surplus most of the time and that PURE WALL ST. SPECULATION is driving up prices. Europeans pay alot for gas but they get the perk of universal health care rolled into that hefty price per gallon...all we get is a kick in the crotch.
With refiners at ~80% capacity, $2.80 a gallon at the pump was the wash point where demand met supply....shipping was reasonable and therefore inflation was minimal....that price area is sustainable. This $4+ robbery is not, and will bring the 2nd dip in our double dip guaranteed.
With the $6 figure being bandied about the news for this summer, everyone around here is saying naw, that will never happen, people will revolt, it will cripple us, etc etc. Somehow I don't think that this driveup is like others in the past that eased back down (before creeping back up). Remind me if in the past the incline was as steep and as steadily (daily) as it is today??

So with pure WS spec, when is the leveling off if ever?

 
Old 04-29-2011, 08:01 PM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 21,902,787 times
Reputation: 15773
Quote:
Originally Posted by bradykp View Post
prices go up around this time of year because of the change at refineries to the cleaner summer blend. this has some, short term, effect on gas prices as useable capacity is lwoer.

$4/gallon and people are still paying it and driving their Tahoes to work....so apparently not everyone thingks it's robbery.
In my generally affluent "education" corridor on this fine spring day, people are driving around freely in huge vehicles singing away, don't seem to be affected by the amount they just paid to fill up their tank. Today I filled my little Corolla tank and there went 40$.

Now I know Europeans have been paying much higher, but I repeat...they live generally close-in and drive minicars. I'd love to see a documentary on their lifestyle and how they handle their fuel prices.

CNN Money reported in March that Norwegians pay almost $10/gal.

How is it in the rest of Europe?
 
Old 04-29-2011, 10:10 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,943 posts, read 17,186,715 times
Reputation: 4680
Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
With the $6 figure being bandied about the news for this summer, everyone around here is saying naw, that will never happen, people will revolt, it will cripple us, etc etc. Somehow I don't think that this driveup is like others in the past that eased back down (before creeping back up). Remind me if in the past the incline was as steep and as steadily (daily) as it is today??

So with pure WS spec, when is the leveling off if ever?
The increase in 2008 was very much like today. This is pretty much a carbon copy of what happened three years ago. In 2008 the gas prices had catastrophic implications on the economy ($4 gas was the reason I was laid off from my first job), and the overall economy was stronger then than it is now. Things are going to get very ugly later in 2011. I don't believe in the Mayan doomsday in 2012, but its possible that America will see its own doomsday before then.
 
Old 04-29-2011, 10:18 PM
 
5,760 posts, read 11,496,974 times
Reputation: 4949
Quote:
Originally Posted by rkcarguy View Post
Watch the oil inventory reports posted each wednesday. You'll see that we log a surplus most of the time and that PURE WALL ST. SPECULATION is driving up prices. Europeans pay alot for gas but they get the perk of universal health care rolled into that hefty price per gallon...all we get is a kick in the crotch.
With refiners at ~80% capacity, $2.80 a gallon at the pump was the wash point where demand met supply....shipping was reasonable and therefore inflation was minimal....that price area is sustainable. This $4+ robbery is not, and will bring the 2nd dip in our double dip guaranteed.
Sooooo . . . it is the greedy speculators and NOT the dumb US folks who keep buying from a maxed out production market?

At this point -- despite Drill, Baby, Drill -- conventional source production is falling and extreme deep offshore + unconventional sources, while growing, are falling behind . . .

but still, still, still, it must be "Them" (OPEC or, Ay-rabs, or Speculators, or Space Aliens) and Never, Never, Us?



 
Old 04-29-2011, 11:37 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 29,372,032 times
Reputation: 9305
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
Sooooo . . . it is the greedy speculators and NOT the dumb US folks who keep buying from a maxed out production market?

At this point -- despite Drill, Baby, Drill -- conventional source production is falling and extreme deep offshore + unconventional sources, while growing, are falling behind . . .

but still, still, still, it must be "Them" (OPEC or, Ay-rabs, or Speculators, or Space Aliens) and Never, Never, Us?


Lay worldwide petroleum consumption figures on top of that graph and you would see just how big a trouble we and the world are in as far as petroleum goes. Of course, that is pretty much what the Peak Oil theorists have been predicting for a long time, but nobody wants to hear that.

There are three points of view on our energy situation: the "Doomers," the "Idiots/Liars," and the "Realists." I consider myself a "Realist," but I will describe the types with this analogy:

A man goes to a clinic. He has been a 2-pack-a-day smoker since he was a teenager. He now is suffering from a persistent cough, increasing shortness of breath, and is actually coughing up some blood occasionally. He is given a battery of tests, which are transmitted to three doctors who each proceed to give the man their opinion.

The Doomer tells the man, "Your X-ray shows that you have a tumor on your lung, and you are suffering from emphysema. You are going to die, so you can quite smoking, but it won't matter much. So, if you like to smoke, keep it up. Either way, your kids are going to have go on without you pretty soon."

The man next hears from the Idiot/Liar. He tells the man, "There is nothing to worry about. You're not sick, you just think you are. Those test results are just a bunch of propaganda. I know, because the people making cigarettes and regulating them tell me so. After all, who would know better the effects of smoking than the people who make, sell, and tax the cigarettes, right? In fact, they say you should smoke even more--it will be good for both you and them. Just ignore those symptoms and go on--it'll be fine. Really."

Finally, the man sees the Realist. He tells the man, "You have a tumor on your lung and you have the beginning symptoms of emphysema. If we don't treat the tumor, it is likely to grow and metastasize though out your whole body. That would be fatal. The surgery to remove the tumor will be risky and painful. You will never be the same again after the surgery, but you have a good chance of survival and a fulfilling life if we can stop your cancer. As for your emphysema, we can probably arrest it and even lessen its effects, but you absolutely must quit smoking. I know you like to smoke and you have smoked your whole adult life, but if you want a chance to survive your cancer and emphysema and have some decent quality of life, you have to stop. I can't guarantee that you will survive the surgery and treatment for your emphysema, but I can guarantee that you WON'T survive very long at all without the treatment."

Now, who would someone with a lick of common sense listen to? The Realist. Translate the analogy to our energy/oil situation in this country. Who are Americans listening to? Mostly, the Idiot/Liars who tell us that we don't have anything to really worry about. Meanwhile, the Doomers and Realists do have one thing in common: The belief that doing nothing to end our addiction to oil is going to have disastrous results for this country. But the realists actually think we might be able to survive the trauma of ending our addiction to oil if we confront the problem right now; the Doomers think it's already too late. Problem is, if America keeps listening to the Idiot/Liars and keeps ***ing around, it WILL be too late.
 
Old 04-29-2011, 11:59 PM
 
10,494 posts, read 27,124,829 times
Reputation: 6716
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
Lay worldwide petroleum consumption figures on top of that graph and you would see just how big a trouble we and the world are in as far as petroleum goes. Of course, that is pretty much what the Peak Oil theorists have been predicting for a long time, but nobody wants to hear that.

There are three points of view on our energy situation: the "Doomers," the "Idiots/Liars," and the "Realists." I consider myself a "Realist," but I will describe the types with this analogy:

A man goes to a clinic. He has been a 2-pack-a-day smoker since he was a teenager. He now is suffering from a persistent cough, increasing shortness of breath, and is actually coughing up some blood occasionally. He is given a battery of tests, which are transmitted to three doctors who each proceed to give the man their opinion.

The Doomer tells the man, "Your X-ray shows that you have a tumor on your lung, and you are suffering from emphysema. You are going to die, so you can quite smoking, but it won't matter much. So, if you like to smoke, keep it up. Either way, your kids are going to have go on without you pretty soon."

The man next hears from the Idiot/Liar. He tells the man, "There is nothing to worry about. You're not sick, you just think you are. Those test results are just a bunch of propaganda. I know, because the people making cigarettes and regulating them tell me so. After all, who would know better the effects of smoking than the people who make, sell, and tax the cigarettes, right? In fact, they say you should smoke even more--it will be good for both you and them. Just ignore those symptoms and go on--it'll be fine. Really."

Finally, the man sees the Realist. He tells the man, "You have a tumor on your lung and you have the beginning symptoms of emphysema. If we don't treat the tumor, it is likely to grow and metastasize though out your whole body. That would be fatal. The surgery to remove the tumor will be risky and painful. You will never be the same again after the surgery, but you have a good chance of survival and a fulfilling life if we can stop your cancer. As for your emphysema, we can probably arrest it and even lessen its effects, but you absolutely must quit smoking. I know you like to smoke and you have smoked your whole adult life, but if you want a chance to survive your cancer and emphysema and have some decent quality of life, you have to stop. I can't guarantee that you will survive the surgery and treatment for your emphysema, but I can guarantee that you WON'T survive very long at all without the treatment."

Now, who would someone with a lick of common sense listen to? The Realist. Translate the analogy to our energy/oil situation in this country. Who are Americans listening to? Mostly, the Idiot/Liars who tell us that we don't have anything to really worry about. Meanwhile, the Doomers and Realists do have one thing in common: The belief that doing nothing to end our addiction to oil is going to have disastrous results for this country. But the realists actually think we might be able to survive the trauma of ending our addiction to oil if we confront the problem right now; the Doomers think it's already too late. Problem is, if America keeps listening to the Idiot/Liars and keeps ***ing around, it WILL be too late.
That is a great post that deserves a rep. Unfortunately, I would venture to say over half of the members on city data follow and listen to the "idiot/liar" MSM.
 
Old 04-30-2011, 12:45 AM
 
Location: West Orange, NJ
12,546 posts, read 21,333,403 times
Reputation: 3730
Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
In my generally affluent "education" corridor on this fine spring day, people are driving around freely in huge vehicles singing away, don't seem to be affected by the amount they just paid to fill up their tank. Today I filled my little Corolla tank and there went 40$.

Now I know Europeans have been paying much higher, but I repeat...they live generally close-in and drive minicars. I'd love to see a documentary on their lifestyle and how they handle their fuel prices.

CNN Money reported in March that Norwegians pay almost $10/gal.

How is it in the rest of Europe?
when i was in italy almost 10 years ago, gas was around $3 per liter. which is close to $12 per gallon.

there are rural areas in most of europe just like here. they live near cities and drive small cars because of the culture there. the high prices of fuel help keep things that way. majority of americans' trips still fall under a very small distance. it's not like we're all driving around the midwest from one city to another. people here generally don't live far from their work either. we just choose to drive large, powerful vehicles.
 
Old 04-30-2011, 09:03 PM
 
4,709 posts, read 12,623,673 times
Reputation: 3813
I have a silly question. Exxon just posted gangbuster profits for the quarter. If high gas prices are due to high crude oil prices, then it seems like profits would be flat, barring a large increase in demand....which I don't think has occurred. The same thing happened during the big price spike a few years ago....what gives?

(I didn't read the whole thread, so if this has been covered, please excuse me)
 
Old 05-01-2011, 12:06 PM
 
5,760 posts, read 11,496,974 times
Reputation: 4949
Quote:
Originally Posted by car54 View Post
I have a silly question. Exxon just posted gangbuster profits for the quarter. If high gas prices are due to high crude oil prices, then it seems like profits would be flat, barring a large increase in demand....which I don't think has occurred. The same thing happened during the big price spike a few years ago....what gives?

(I didn't read the whole thread, so if this has been covered, please excuse me)
We see this on the refinery side of things.

Maybe think of this as a Cash Flow thing?

Cash Flow = Price X Volume.

Big Price X Big Volume = Big Cash Flow, right?

But like you say -- Big Price X Normal Volume = Still pretty good Cash Flow.

What happened in Late 2008 -- was a drop in Both Price and Volume.

Mathwise: Much Lower Price X Lower Volume = Big Drop in Cash Flow.

That is what happened in late 2008. Some refineries shut down due to that, most were sent into a tailspin.

As far as timing -- Cash Flow issues -- good or bad -- tend to show up in the following quarter. And there is also a lag in how quickly folks can or do cut back in their spending -- so reductions due to price increases show up a little later, as well.
 
Old 05-01-2011, 12:17 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 29,372,032 times
Reputation: 9305
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
We see this on the refinery side of things.

Maybe think of this as a Cash Flow thing?

Cash Flow = Price X Volume.

Big Price X Big Volume = Big Cash Flow, right?

But like you say -- Big Price X Normal Volume = Still pretty good Cash Flow.

What happened in Late 2008 -- was a drop in Both Price and Volume.

Mathwise: Much Lower Price X Lower Volume = Big Drop in Cash Flow.

That is what happened in late 2008. Some refineries shut down due to that, most were sent into a tailspin.

As far as timing -- Cash Flow issues -- good or bad -- tend to show up in the following quarter. And there is also a lag in how quickly folks can or do cut back in their spending -- so reductions due to price increases show up a little later, as well.
The pattern in the US in the last 20 years isn't hard to figure out. The refiners that survive are the ones that, either contractually or by vertical integration, have secured long-term supplies of crude to keep running. Each succeeding shortage of crude supplies puts more of the small independent refiners under, further strengthening the position of the few remaining refineries that do have relatively secure crude supplies. Those refiners will only expand their facilities if they have sufficient long-term crude supplies to do so. Since acquiring those supplies has become more and more difficult to do economically, it should be no surprise that there is relatively little expansion in American refining capacity occurring. Meanwhile, idiots that we Americans are, we just continue to use more fuel, importing more refined petroleum products, and further crippling are already tenuous national security. A real disaster in the making . . .
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