Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Get ready for civil unrest, food riots, martial law, rationing, mass starvation in some areas.
I take it you plan on watching Soylent Green non-stop for 8 years, because that's oonly place you'll see that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02
Wouldn't be surprised to see some fracturing if not breakup of the United States before this thing is over. By Census 2020, we will be looking at a very different America than in 2010.
Right. Bankrupt States are going to go it alone. That makes sense. Maybe they can borrow from the IMF.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02
And about the Depression, in some parts of the country the Great Depression wasn't really that bad. In other parts, it was total apocalypse.
It was many things, but it was never total apocalypse. People were much stronger morally and ethically, and there was a greater sense of community, even when outsiders came into the community seeking work or food.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02
The parts of the country that had it the worst during the last Great Depression (Texas, Oklahoma) seem to be getting spared the brunt of this one.
That might be because the Dust Bowl sent huge black clouds of dust storms over Oklahoma and Texas, at some points turning day into night the dust was so thick. Other areas were affected as well. In Chicago, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Washington DC, people had to drive with their headlights on in the day time to see.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02
My economic prediction for June 8, 2012.
Dow: 4980
Nasdaq: 610
S&P: 380
That would be totally contrary to the history of the DOW. If there is an economic collapse, the DOW will soar to about 18,000 or maybe even 20,000.
You seem to be ignorant or oblivious of the undisputed fact that DOW soared every time the economy tanked, and that the DOW collapsed when the economy started to improve.
US enters recession January 1928, the DOW soars breaking records. The economy starts to show signs of recovery and the DOW starts collapsing and then the crash in 1929. March 1930, the Republican-controlled Congress enacts what was then the largest tax hike in history and levies destructive import tariffs causing an international trade war. The economy collapses 3 months later and the DOW soars setting new records.
The Democrats gain control in the 1930 elections, and March 1931 they slash taxes and end the tariffs. The economy starts to recover and the DOW crashes.
FDR wins in 1932 and in March 1933 starts enacting his first round of New Deal taxes. The economy collapses, the DOW reaches record highs. Then in 1935 the economy starts to recover, the DOW crashes again. New round of New Deal legislation in 1937 and the economy tanks, the Dow soars. Then by late 1938 the economy is recovering, not because of government spending or programs, but because of WW II, and the DOW crashes. The economy grows at the outrageously ridiculous rate of 12.5% on average per quarter for the next 68 quarters and the DOW just languishes in the gutter. It isn't until 1942 when the economy stabilizes that the DOW starts coming back.
Same thing in 1958. The economy starts to tank, but the DOW soars setting new records and then the recession ends in late 1960 and the DOW collapses.
Lather, Rinse, Repeat for every economic problem after that.
If you see the DOW collapse now, it would be because the economy is starting to recover. However, I don't think anyone will see that because there are safeguards in place to keep the markets from tanking (which is actually harmful and delays recovery) and because the economy simply isn't going to recover anytime soon.
Might see 18-20,000 on Dow but the value of the dollars supporting that price will be worth much less than today. Try pricing in gold or silver and see the real value of the market.
Saw an interesting analogy regarding price of gasoline in silver coins. Actually cheaper today than it was in 1930's if you could buy gasoline with silver.
41+ million people are on food stamps now. The percentage is shooting to the moon. That is unsustaninable when Uncle Sam is borrowing 42% of every dollar he spends.
The only reason we are not seeing more direct evidence of how bad things are is because of the government safety net. Take that away and you would see Zombieland in MANY areas of the US overnight.
I know plenty of friends who are doing fine (they work for Wells Fargo and Wachovia), but I also know that my husband just lost his job and my brother's entire division is closing (science related).
IF we ever see any meaningful cuts from Congress, the ripple affect would be huge. So many "private sector" jobs are anything but. They depend in large part on government funds.
What little growth we are seeing now is the direct result of huge government pumping and deficit spending. It cannot continue. In fact, given the magnitude of the bezzle in the system now, the fact that we are seeing another slowdown is pretty scary.
So many of of us are conditioned to believe in the eternal optimism of the USA and we don't want to hear anything "bad" because it's depressing and sad. Well, we need to put on our big girl/boy pants and face the facts. The longer we kick this can, the worse the impact will be.
41+ million people are on food stamps now. The percentage is shooting to the moon. That is unsustaninable when Uncle Sam is borrowing 42% of every dollar he spends.
The only reason we are not seeing more direct evidence of how bad things are is because of the government safety net. Take that away and you would see Zombieland in MANY areas of the US overnight.
I know plenty of friends who are doing fine (they work for Wells Fargo and Wachovia), but I also know that my husband just lost his job and my brother's entire division is closing (science related).
IF we ever see any meaningful cuts from Congress, the ripple affect would be huge. So many "private sector" jobs are anything but. They depend in large part on government funds.
What little growth we are seeing now is the direct result of huge government pumping and deficit spending. It cannot continue. In fact, given the magnitude of the bezzle in the system now, the fact that we are seeing another slowdown is pretty scary.
So many of of us are conditioned to believe in the eternal optimism of the USA and we don't want to hear anything "bad" because it's depressing and sad. Well, we need to put on our big girl/boy pants and face the facts. The longer we kick this can, the worse the impact will be.
So when they cancel food Stamps, throw the elderly out of the nursing homes by cutting Medicaid, destroy Medicare with the voucher system and millions are without. Then we will have a depression. Until then most Americans won't put their Wii down long enough to worry about it
Then by late 1938 the economy is recovering, not because of government spending or programs, but because of WW II, and the DOW crashes.
Now that is pretty interesting, since WWII didn't start until the back half of 1939.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02
My economic prediction for June 8, 2012.
Dow: 4980
Nasdaq: 610
S&P: 380
Unemployment (U3): 31%
Q1 2012 GDP -11.9%
Oil: $67/bbl
Gold: $3167/troy oz
Do you have puts or a trade on to back up this prediction? Out of the money puts on SSO are very cheap(as well as GLD calls) with the VIX still under 20.
Take this a little deeper than the US 8th grade history books.
Preparation and spending for the war was already in Full Swing well before the war started.
Oh, right, because the US knew they were going to be attacked in 41-- so we secretly started working on new warships early, but made it look like they only took a year or 2 to complete when it really took 5?
Do you also subscribe to the idea FDR let the attack on Hawaii happen so we had a reason to directly enter the war? I'm not faulting that the war is what brought the world out of depression, clearly it did -- that isn't the question.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
