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NJBEst:"I suspect unemployment will drop to lows somewhere between 2015 and 2020. I honestly doubt it will take any longer."
Why? What structural change would cause that? Bear in mind, BC had both dotcom and Y2K hiring greatly reducing unemployment. 8 million axed during 1.5 years; corps did not fail to operate. Why would they add 8 million new jobs, on top of 1.8 mill/year needed to keep pace with population growth.
To get to 6% by 2020, we'd need 8 mill/96 months (assumes start 1/1/2012) or 80k new jobs per month PLUS the 150k month for pop growth or an 8 year average of 230k per month. BC's 2nd term average was 240k, for a far shorter period of time. Any double-dip just magnifies the 230k enormously.
We're down 15-0 going to the top of the ninth, and you are expresssing optimism. LOL!
Odd, Escort Rider, you seem less concerned for the root causes of potential violence, than a discussion of its possibility. I was just a kid in the 60s, and I am white, but I do understand why the inner cities saw massive amounts of blocks burned down in the late 60s, particularly after the murder of MLK. The 1928ish distribution of wealth amongst an elite few, will most likely have nasty side effects at some point, just as occured in the early part of the 20th century. Wishing and hoping will not stop that, and speech is not the problem. Root Cause time is long past due; corrective action time is long past due. Ignoring problems of this sort, just as was done in the 50s and 60s, is gasoline on the fires. The old adage "Those who are not part of the solution, are part of the problem" renders true.
I responded to a specific post. I have no quarrel with "a discussion of [the] possibility" of violence. Indeed that is a very important discussion at this time in our history. Such a discussion is not the same as the advocacy of a killing frenzy, or as the position that mass killings are to be welcomed and encouraged, or as the demonization of any particular group of people to the point where they are no longer considered human.
I agree you responded to ONE post, but I find such posts to be essentially non-threatening. I worry more about people who are NOT talking. Those are the kettles about to explode. The Tim McVeigh's and office massacre type killers get quiet, stop associating with people, more often than not, just before the event. Our enemies always said capitalism would destroy itself from within, and I am beginning to think they may have a valid point. Many here are unaware of how routine violence was just 90 years ago, and at that time, the working population/sq foot, and the ability to cause harm, were far less conducive to massive problems vs 2011.
A growing disconnected segment of society , IMO, is our biggest threat now.
There seems to be more and more of it as time goes on. It's seriously amazing to see how things changed so fast.
I work for the Government and regularly dealt with "do you know who I am?" folks... you know the type, the "supersize my life" McMansion and chromed Hummer crowd that has virtually disappeared in the last three years. No one has used that line with me since 2008; seriously.
These days, if you are wealthy you are scorned and shamed and demonized and joked about like never before in this country. It's as if everyone with a positive bank account suddenly became a ridicule-worthy clown like this:
I don't consider myself to be rich, but I come from a family that is. Their crowd seems to have switched their Mercedes and Cadillacs for Toyotas and Chevys, their vacations are now to Colorado or California instead of Europe or Bali, even though they really aren't any poorer than they were back in the glory days of conspicuous consumption. They seem to try very hard to not stand out anymore.
So am I just imagining this? Is being rich bad for your health these days? It's just amazing to me that we went from "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous" to the French Revolution mentality in only a couple of years... and the trend seems to show no signs of slowing. Maybe it isn't a bad thing, but then again, maybe it is... whatdayathink?
I'm relatively well off, and I haven't changed a thing. In fact, I started taking trips to Europe rather than to Myrtle Beach. I couldn't care less what anybody thinks.
Then again though, I am generally not a conspicuous consumer, and I'm very low key and unassuming in the way I act. The more people pull that 'do you know who I am?' stuff, the less wealth they usually have. They are usually just going for the appearance of wealth as a substitute for the real thing.
NJBEst:"I suspect unemployment will drop to lows somewhere between 2015 and 2020. I honestly doubt it will take any longer."
Why? What structural change would cause that? Bear in mind, BC had both dotcom and Y2K hiring greatly reducing unemployment. 8 million axed during 1.5 years; corps did not fail to operate. Why would they add 8 million new jobs, on top of 1.8 mill/year needed to keep pace with population growth.
To get to 6% by 2020, we'd need 8 mill/96 months (assumes start 1/1/2012) or 80k new jobs per month PLUS the 150k month for pop growth or an 8 year average of 230k per month. BC's 2nd term average was 240k, for a far shorter period of time. Any double-dip just magnifies the 230k enormously.
We're down 15-0 going to the top of the ninth, and you are expresssing optimism. LOL!
What can I say.... I'm an optimist.
As long as we don't hit a depression, I still consider us within the normal business cycle. So far this holds true.
You do understand the enormity of the math involved, right? Quite frankly, we have NEVER faced such an uphill battle. Even during the Great depression, as with women not working until wartime production needed them, the quantity needing to be re-employed was far lower as a percentage of the employment base.
I was equally optimistic at the start of this mess, but not now. When one is down 5-0 at end of 1 inning, that is still winnable. When its 15-0 after 8, game, set, match.
No offense, but business cycles fail to measure the effect on society. GDP, Productivity, etc..are good measures, but business schools do not do a good job, nor do they attract, people interested in things they cannot objectify. So your ending sentence in your last post reminds me of a doc saying "Operation went well, you may visit your relative in the morgue anytime you wish".
You do understand the enormity of the math involved, right? Quite frankly, we have NEVER faced such an uphill battle. Even during the Great depression, as with women not working until wartime production needed them, the quantity needing to be re-employed was far lower as a percentage of the employment base.
I was equally optimistic at the start of this mess, but not now. When one is down 5-0 at end of 1 inning, that is still winnable. When its 15-0 after 8, game, set, match.
This is not a normal business cycle. We have had longer-term structural economic problems that have been masked by successive debt bubbles. I am pessimistic also about any major improvement in the forseeable future. It just doesn't seem to be happening. We can fight our way back, but it's going to take more than just waiting for the economy to recover. In sum, we need to sell more abroad and import less, so that we're paying our own people rather than exporting our wealth to others. We need to find the right policies to bring about that result, and nobody is offering anything real in that regard.
That's a personal thing. I was talking from a macroeconomic standpoint.
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