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Old 09-07-2011, 09:52 AM
 
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I know technically the last recession supposedly ended when we started experiencing miniscule growth to our economy. But I feel that, with the perpetual Doom and Gloom conveyance in the media, that we've been in a recession since around 2007. We're going on nearly four years now. Do you guys feel this attitude towards our economy will ever change? Will we get out of this funk, this mindset?


Talk of slowdown causes recession in market confidence
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Old 09-07-2011, 10:12 AM
 
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I was in the company of a handful of economists yesterday. One guy was VERY confident that we're heading towards a global recession and was citing indicators left and right. Another was skeptical, while two others (one of which work for Berkshire) were sure that the economy was stronger than appears (primarily citing how strong balance sheets are). ALL were certain that we came out of the recession, by that minor growth as you stated. I'm optimistic and go with the numbers. Even a tiny amount of positive growth is significantly better than negative growth. So yes, the last one ended.

The whole conversation left me in a state of . Here are people who do this for a living that cannot agree on anything.

Anyways, they did bring up a good point. Corporate balance sheets are extremely healthy (forgiving the financial sector). You would think that once confidence is restored, those earnings have to pour back into the economy, wouldn't you?

CNBC is all over this second recession thing btw. If you want different people's opinions, tune in.

Last edited by NJBest; 09-07-2011 at 10:21 AM..
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Old 09-07-2011, 11:08 AM
 
Location: Here.
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When your neighbor is out of a job, it's a recession.
When you're out of a job, it's a depression.
When Barack Obama is out of a job, it's a recovery.
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Old 09-07-2011, 12:33 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Retroit View Post
When your neighbor is out of a job, it's a recession.
When you're out of a job, it's a depression.
When Barack Obama is out of a job, it's a recovery.
I love how people make their own definitions with no merit. Anyways, back to topic.
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Old 09-07-2011, 12:53 PM
 
362 posts, read 742,193 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NJBest View Post
...

Anyways, they did bring up a good point. Corporate balance sheets are extremely healthy (forgiving the financial sector). You would think that once confidence is restored, those earnings have to pour back into the economy, wouldn't you?...
Nah. The fatcats at the top are doing awesome. Why would they start looking out for the little people?

Though, historically, in theory, I would agree with you, but imo, the norm is no more, and further widening the separation of classes seems to be the direction, sadly.
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Old 09-07-2011, 12:59 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Troof View Post
Nah. The fatcats at the top are doing awesome. Why would they start looking out for the little people?

Though, historically, in theory, I would agree with you, but imo, the norm is no more, and further widening the separation of classes seems to be the direction, sadly.
But sitting on cash has limited returns in comparison.... Wouldn't the investors want the bigger returns that come with risk at some point?
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Old 09-07-2011, 01:15 PM
 
Location: NJ
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The new fear in corporate America, NJBest, feeds on itself. They'll keep sitting on ever larger piles of cash, just as people left banks after the Great depression for a long, long time, using mattresses instead. Corp Bal Sheet cash 2011 = Individual Mattress 1938
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Old 09-07-2011, 03:07 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 27,047,586 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NJBest View Post
I was in the company of a handful of economists yesterday. One guy was VERY confident that we're heading towards a global recession and was citing indicators left and right. Another was skeptical, while two others (one of which work for Berkshire) were sure that the economy was stronger than appears (primarily citing how strong balance sheets are). ALL were certain that we came out of the recession, by that minor growth as you stated. I'm optimistic and go with the numbers. Even a tiny amount of positive growth is significantly better than negative growth. So yes, the last one ended.

The whole conversation left me in a state of . Here are people who do this for a living that cannot agree on anything.

Anyways, they did bring up a good point. Corporate balance sheets are extremely healthy (forgiving the financial sector). You would think that once confidence is restored, those earnings have to pour back into the economy, wouldn't you?

CNBC is all over this second recession thing btw. If you want different people's opinions, tune in.
Like the old saying goes, "If all the economists in the world were laid end to end, they would never reach a conclusion." By the way, I was trained in economics.

As for corporate balance sheets, corporations are sitting on tons of cash for the same reason that a lot of prudent individuals are: they know that they may need it in the coming economic meltdown, and they want to be positioned to do some serious "bottom fishing" once the meltdown happens. Just like some smart people made a killing during the last Great Depression.

By the way, "negative growth" is an inane double-speak oxymoron. You can either have growth, stability, or shrinkage.
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Old 09-07-2011, 06:40 PM
 
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Personally - financially - things have gotten progressively worse for us after 9/11 - the mini-recession with the "original jobless recovery"... I had a layoff then along with many others.
you know how long ago that was!
No one's salaries have kept up - there is not going to ever be a "recovery" to the levels everyone is thinking. Ever. Welcome to the global economy.
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Old 09-07-2011, 08:54 PM
 
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Originally Posted by gardener34 View Post
Personally - financially - things have gotten progressively worse for us after 9/11 - the mini-recession with the "original jobless recovery"... I had a layoff then along with many others.
you know how long ago that was!
Sure. The water level has hit different decks at different times and places, but the overall trend has been towards sinking -- every since Carter told US so.

Reagan and everyone else since has been Wall-to-Wall Corporate liars, running US deeper in Debt, while bull****ting the lower end with tales of "How Great US Is!" and winking and nodding to the top end sending more and more money that way.

That is the basic way it has been done since the Indians were cheated out of this country. Bull***** the bottom, buy-off the top. And kill the middle if they give you a problem.


Quote:
No one's salaries have kept up - there is not going to ever be a "recovery" to the levels everyone is thinking.

Ever.
Most likely true.

B U T we still could recover it.

But it would involve taking the country back from the Corporations.

Quote:
Welcome to the global economy.
See about that part . . . . That was just a made-up marketing term for Selling US Out.

So folks would shrug and say goofy stuff like -- "It is a Global Economy." Like there were nothing that could be done about it all.

We can end the Global Economy game anytime we want to.
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