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Old 10-13-2011, 09:13 AM
 
Location: NJ
28 posts, read 17,500 times
Reputation: 60

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lets go - time to make serious money




I just wanted to propose a hypothesis on what is going to move the markets and see what the learned folks here think about it.

I think the main game in town is Obama’s re election plan. He is colluding with Bernanke to actually flood the market with liquidity and regardless of what Beranke say’s there is QE3 actually underway. The only thing which was spoiling the party was Europe and finally the local populace in Europe is scared enough by the markets that the leadership in Europe finally has incentive and motivation to provide a reasonable backstop plan. Off course the political process is never a linear process and there will be more twists in this tale but I think that Q3 earnings will have enough positive surprise ( I think the recession fears are overblown here, look at the preorder stat for iPhone 4s) to drive the market higher. Also I do not think that dollar will strengthen anymore which will mean that smart money will start to enter BRICS market soon. So my game plan is
Buy growth sectors like Technology ( By the way avoid financial at all cost. Obama will make an example out of the Investment banks and because of massive de risking and compliance costs there earnings will continue to underwhelm)

Get Into BRICS - avoid materials
Buy Gold ( I think in 12 months further dollar devaluation)

What u guys think
Regards
SR
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:16 AM
Status: "But in the aggregate..." (set 26 days ago)
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
31,331 posts, read 69,479,051 times
Reputation: 37326
Quote:
Originally Posted by sr55662 View Post
Is it time to go Long ?

it's always time to go long and it's always time to go short
just as it's always time to get in and it's always time to get out

as always... the question is which specific stocks these apply to.

hth
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:24 AM
 
5,409 posts, read 10,329,247 times
Reputation: 4478
OP --

Do you mean to ask can we expect an Up in the overall economy based on QE?

I would say not. QE has generally went to the top end and just sat there.

Does really nothing for the overall economy.

On the other hand, sending money to the bottom -- at least partly -- ie, the Recovery Plan -- did arrest some of the collapse.

Since the Senate has blocked sending any more money to the bottom, I would look for a very real possibility of the collapse to resume.

So with that in mind, as Rational observed -- it is very selective ahead.
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:25 AM
 
2,515 posts, read 1,818,587 times
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Long on gold when it is in the 1600~1550 range.
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:51 AM
 
Location: NJ
28 posts, read 17,500 times
Reputation: 60
I am pretty sure that none of this will actually improve the economy. But am trying to figure out if there is high probability of market going higher in short to mid term (just like it happened in QE2).
This is based on the theory that all Obama is interested in is getting re elcted and he is also trying to time the market. General public sees markets as the proxy of economic health and that's what he is trying to exploit.
The same logic applies why I would short financial on any pop because he is going to try to exploit anti Wall street sentiment to hilt.
Offcourse I am bearish in the long run and truely believe that Gold will be the king.

SR
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:01 AM
 
Location: Wherever women are
19,011 posts, read 26,893,288 times
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My co-worker's invested in a Brazil ETF and she's down for quite a while now.

She's got a 6 to 7 million dollar portfolio and she is my Brazil guru.

The only area of the BRIC I see great returns is India
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:14 AM
 
Location: NJ
28 posts, read 17,500 times
Reputation: 60
I myself am from east Indian origin and totally agree with you about opportunity in India. I think RBI there is nearing the end of rate hike cycle. The market there is has big time underperformed US markets recently. And with a low risk of USD appreciating this is a good time to enter with Rate Sensitives ( banks and auto companies - BTW Indian banks have a very little international exposure). BTW some of the major Indian companies have ADR's listed in US and U do not have to go ETF route
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:24 PM
 
Location: Wherever women are
19,011 posts, read 26,893,288 times
Reputation: 11309
I'm trading India and Japan at the moment.

Japan's getting slammed with the Spain downgrade and India is holding good support.

As I mentioned earlier, India has been my sturdiest portfolio. No major losses year to date.
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:46 PM
 
Location: Wherever women are
19,011 posts, read 26,893,288 times
Reputation: 11309
The more and more I listen to Jim Rogers, the more and more I get paranoid of a total collapse of PIIGS and a cascading effect.

If there's a US-China trade war, that's gonna be terrific for some commodities. I'm especially getting bullish on REE's and HREE's


Jim Rogers on US-China trade war - YouTube
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Old 10-14-2011, 06:17 AM
 
Location: Wherever women are
19,011 posts, read 26,893,288 times
Reputation: 11309
SENSEX finished strongly, about 1% up, while Japan and Hong Kong showed some struggle. I bought about 10,000 Renuka Sugars earlier in the month for about 50 and it's approaching 60 and my sale target is like 65.

I wonder if it can get to 100, it's going strong. I was thinking of selling it at a profit of 7 rupees per share but then I fell asleep and the trade didn't clear, now I'm glad I fell asleep
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