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Old 12-02-2011, 09:20 AM
 
11,184 posts, read 10,728,339 times
Reputation: 35826

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Doomers, the statistics just don't support your view about the economy collapsing.

The unemployment rate is down to 8.6% today.

We are adding new jobs (and have been for the last three months) at a rate of 120,000 - 140,000 new jobs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI reflects that in the last 12 months that retail prices increased by 3.5%

GDP or national income increased at a rate of 2.5% the last quarter.

Energy prices fell this last month. I'm buying gasoline where I live for $3.15 a gallon.

Factory orders are increasing.

Auto sales were up in November (which is unusual--its a lackluster month for car dealers)

"Black Friday" sales were up 6% over last year.

I realize most of you "true doomers" will reject all this. You'll say the government statistics are made up. Have you ever contemplated if that were true how many hundreds (perhaps thousands) of people would have to be in on such a fraud?

This economy is recovering. Its doing it slowly. Its not producing as many jobs as fast as we would like it too. However, after an awful recession, we are on the way back. By the election day, I'm betting the unemployment rate will be just below 8%. Not great, but enough to re-elect "O".
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Old 12-02-2011, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Texas
2,847 posts, read 2,139,208 times
Reputation: 1754
I guess we will know in January or February when the credit card bill come due and when all the temp xmas employees are laid off. May be a real awakening.
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Old 12-02-2011, 10:00 AM
 
Location: IN
22,309 posts, read 38,935,535 times
Reputation: 14872
UE is down due to holiday temp hiring. Consumer spending is up due to the holidays obviously, but the consumer is likely taking on more debt again. I don't expect the UE to go lower unless hiring is sustained above the 150-175K per month level at the bare minimum for a long period of time. Even then, we have to make up the 8 million jobs lost during the recession.
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Old 12-02-2011, 10:35 AM
 
3,335 posts, read 2,714,674 times
Reputation: 921
Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
It is not "info" you are sharing, but opinions and predictions. A world of difference.
Okay ER.. i've never shared any info. It's all opinion.
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Old 12-02-2011, 10:37 AM
 
3,335 posts, read 2,714,674 times
Reputation: 921
Quote:
Originally Posted by slackjaw View Post
Typical spin for all the "collapse is coming" morons after their predictions end up looking so foolish, they imply they were right afterall it was everyone else who didn't understand what collapse meant. Other tactic is to yammer about how if the numbers weren't manipulated we'd see they were right afterall.
Moron's? Yammer? Your a rude person.

There's a solution to your stress. Don't click on a Modeerf thread, and use the ignore function.
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Old 12-02-2011, 10:47 AM
 
3,335 posts, read 2,714,674 times
Reputation: 921
Quote:
Originally Posted by markg91359 View Post
Doomers, the statistics just don't support your view about the economy collapsing.
Your right, i'm going to buy 10,000 shares of BAC and 10,000 of C today.
Tired of my cash just sitting on my kitchen table.

Quote:
The unemployment rate is down to 8.6% today.
And we all know how figures don't lie, yet liars figure.

Quote:
We are adding new jobs (and have been for the last three months) at a rate of 120,000 - 140,000 new jobs.
We need over 200,000 per month for 2 yrs. before you'd see any real rebound toward growth.

Quote:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI reflects that in the last 12 months that retail prices increased by 3.5%
What does that mean to you?

Quote:
GDP or national income increased at a rate of 2.5% the last quarter.
month to month or annualized? Either way, basically anemic.

Quote:
Energy prices fell this last month. I'm buying gasoline where I live for $3.15 a gallon.
Good for you, Diesel fuel hasn't, and that is how most things get to your home.
Quote:
Factory orders are increasing.
Compared to what? Last yrs. great numbers?

Quote:
Auto sales were up in November (which is unusual--its a lackluster month for car dealers)
Fleet purchase time?

Quote:
"Black Friday" sales were up 6% over last year.
Here is a hint of a crappy economy. When people are about to lose everything, they use their credit last. Credit sales were up over last yr. by over 7% in stores. Over 50% for online purchases.
Lots of bankruptcies in Americas future.

Quote:
I realize most of you "true doomers" will reject all this. You'll say the government statistics are made up. Have you ever contemplated if that were true how many hundreds (perhaps thousands) of people would have to be in on such a fraud?
Yeh, gov't is so honest, financial institutions would never manipulate anything.
You got me there.

Quote:
This economy is recovering. Its doing it slowly. Its not producing as many jobs as fast as we would like it too. However, after an awful recession, we are on the way back. By the election day, I'm betting the unemployment rate will be just below 8%. Not great, but enough to re-elect "O".
The only path to recovery is WWIII. Too many unemployed, underemployed, indebted gov'ts and people. The numbers don't work when it comes to any entitlement promises, or consumption, but if your world is insulated, good for you.
O will be re-selected, but not because things are improving.
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Old 12-30-2011, 11:10 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles area
14,017 posts, read 18,953,685 times
Reputation: 32445
Quote:
Originally Posted by modeerf View Post
With EU governments scrambling to cover their sins. The people are feeling the pinch.

ALL ONE BIG Distraction.

Our economic system is on the verge of a total collapse. The US taxpayer is being set up to pay the bills of failing Bank investments.
Well, it's been a little over two months since your thread title predicted that "Financial collapse is upon us". Is that too early for me to be nit-picking by saying that we seem no nearer to collapse than we were two months ago? You did leave yourself some wiggle room as "on the verge" of total collapse is sufficiently vague. Should I check back here in two more months?
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Old 12-30-2011, 11:12 PM
 
Location: southern california
61,305 posts, read 79,754,076 times
Reputation: 55458
u r so right but how strange the average poster on CDF will jeer and mock u when u say this stuff.
collective denial.
ants on a burning log.
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Old 12-31-2011, 02:33 PM
 
3,335 posts, read 2,714,674 times
Reputation: 921
Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
Well, it's been a little over two months since your thread title predicted that "Financial collapse is upon us". Is that too early for me to be nit-picking by saying that we seem no nearer to collapse than we were two months ago? You did leave yourself some wiggle room as "on the verge" of total collapse is sufficiently vague. Should I check back here in two more months?
You can nit pick at will, doesn't affect me or my opinions in the least. In fact, thanks for being the Yin to my Yang. That said.

Its collapsing as we speak.

Sure world oligarchs (FED, IMF, WORLDBANK etc..) are propping it up with brass bracing (printing more fake money).

But the design is for it to collapse, create chaos and engineer a new system that takes more freedom and provides less quality in our lives.

There is more crime, homelessness, civil unrest, poverty, increased entitlements, on and on... if this isn't a collapsing system, i don't know what is.

Maybe you do.
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Old 12-31-2011, 04:10 PM
 
Location: Metro Detroit, Michigan
18,228 posts, read 16,648,778 times
Reputation: 18205
Collapse? I don't necessarily think so. Contraction? Better believe it! Unless we go through more rounds of QE, we are going to find out if the economy can stand on it's own two feet. How will people react if they see negative GDP numbers next quarter? Will this cause a mass sell off? Who knows. European debt situation doesn't seem to be getting any better. As I have mentioned before, that will probably stunt any natural growth in China, and stunt demand for commodities from Brazil and Australia. Australia looks like one big bubble just itching to pop... The housing market situation there appears much like ours just before it popped. I can't even imagine how toxic the situation is in China. Government manipulation did our economy great damage, and I'm sure it will have the same effect in China. The commodity market bubble itself may soon be on the verge of a hard contraction. Big question if that happens is... Will it be more favorable to hold currency, assets or commodities? What is going to decline in value faster?

In my opinion, collapse is always possible. It's happened before and it will undoubtedly happen again. More likely however, the system will continue to be stretched, volatility will be the norm, and many will end up on the wrong side of the equation. Recklessness does not go unpunished, but those responsible may not necessarily be the ones to pay the price. The financial sector grew while our natural GDP producing industries declined. Now we have a big hole that cannot be filled. Thus far, the government has just been trying to prop up the fake economy instead of focusing on encouraging growth in real GDP producing industries. Clearly, the answer to our economic woes will not come from big government, although they will continue to throw our tax dollars away trying. Not good.
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