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Old 10-23-2011, 11:30 PM
 
8,265 posts, read 11,196,577 times
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Feb 2009:
Quote:
Originally Posted by las vegas drunk View Post
It is almost comical how nieve the American public is. Very soon the whole banking industry is going to collapse and everyone's savings are going to be history just like it did in the 1920's. There is no turn around in the future, period. For one thing, inflation is going to rise so bad this year that the dollar will become worthless.

July 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by las vegas drunk View Post
Actually, it is the opposite. As soon as the stimulus runs out later this year the collapse is imminent.

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Old 10-23-2011, 11:50 PM
 
10,494 posts, read 24,388,658 times
Reputation: 6696
Quote:
Originally Posted by slackjaw View Post
Feb 2009:



July 2010


Yes, I was wrong back then as you have pointed out at least 100 times. Do you have nothing better to do than go through all my posts over 1-2 years ago? I guess not. I merely laughed at the fact that a poster said we are going to have a boom, and you have to bring all this back up again.

Last edited by las vegas drunk; 10-24-2011 at 12:06 AM..
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Old 10-24-2011, 03:48 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
8,033 posts, read 11,811,142 times
Reputation: 7985
Plenty of newly industrializing countries (emerging markets) are more or less booming, investment opportunities abound.

The "collapse" is that the standard of living of the average worker in the countries of early industrialization is stagnating or in some sectors on the decline compared to the standard of living of the average worker in newly industrialized countries which is on the ascent. Over the next decade or two, they will more or less meet at a mediocre middle.

Scary!!!

Nobody really knows who invented and developed agriculture some 10,000 years ago, and some 8,000 or so years later the agricultural powers of the day were not the ones of 8,000 years previously.

Two hundred years of history is nothing. In 200 years from now, it may be that only historians remember that countries like UK, France, USA and Japan invented and developed industrialization and the industrial powers going forward may not be the ones of the past 200 years or so.

So what? In the long-run, we're all dead men.

Good Luck!
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Old 10-24-2011, 07:13 AM
 
11,018 posts, read 10,608,055 times
Reputation: 35346
Quote:
Yes, I was wrong back then as you have pointed out at least 100 times. Do you have nothing better to do than go through all my posts over 1-2 years ago? I guess not. I merely laughed at the fact that a poster said we are going to have a boom, and you have to bring all this back up again.

I think what many of us are tired of the number of people who come on here and constantly predict "economic collapse" and are never held to account when it doesn't happen. Perhaps, a starting point would be for the person predicting "economic collapse" to provide their definition of the term. Does "economic collapse" mean temporary unemployment of 10% or 20%? Does it mean that the US dollar becomes worthless in the sense that it takes 100 dollars to buy one Euro? Does it mean that gasoline prices reach 10 dollars a gallon?

What makes this forum something bordering on a joke are the posters who seem to constantly post nightmarish, Chicken-Little scenarios that end up consuming much of the energy of those of us who live in a rational, normal world. This is really nothing new. If you search history, you'll find that during recessions some people are always quick to interpret circumstances as a sign that the world is ending. I think its a sort of "throwback" to the early Christians who believed that the Second Coming of Christ was imminent.

I think a lot of us would love to have a real discussion about economics. Its enough for most of us that the economy is in a recession. Better questions that would actually be worth debating might include:

1. When will unemployment reach 7%?'
2. Will the inflation rate be 3% or 5% next year?
3. Will oil prices stay below $100 a barrel until at least next summer?
4. When should the payroll tax cuts be restored?
5. When will interest rates rise?
6. What are the best government policies in the present situation (I'm not interested in those who either advocate more reckless government spending or drastic cuts either)

Last edited by markg91359; 10-24-2011 at 08:14 AM..
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Old 10-24-2011, 07:20 AM
 
8,265 posts, read 11,196,577 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markg91359 View Post
I think many of us are tired of about the number of people who come on here and constantly predict "economic collapse" and are never held to account when it doesn't happen.
Exactly. For that poster to post a picture in an economic collapse thread mockingly laughing at another's opinion after having made such asinine calls on economic collapse previously, come on.
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Old 10-24-2011, 07:33 AM
 
3,457 posts, read 3,286,157 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
Right now is quite similar to how things were in the mid-70s.
How do you figure?
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Old 10-24-2011, 07:41 AM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,131 posts, read 28,399,190 times
Reputation: 6841
Quote:
Originally Posted by modeerf View Post
What do you base the next great Boom point of view around?
Nobody knew the impact of the internet 5 years before it happened. The probability of somethng like that happening again is greater than the whole economy melting down.
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Old 10-24-2011, 08:32 AM
 
Location: Sierra Vista, AZ
16,516 posts, read 21,969,821 times
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Iceland suffered a Financial Collapse yet the sun still rises and the grass still grows. Even though some parasites lost their silver coins the children still go to school, the government still provides Health Care and pensions.
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Old 10-24-2011, 09:53 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
8,033 posts, read 11,811,142 times
Reputation: 7985
You can play around with financial variables and macroeconomic statistics all you want, but they tell only half the story.

Here is the real economy definition of collapse.

Economic collapse means failure to deliver water, food, basic housing (and I mean basic, not debt-financed McMansions), and electricity to the bulk of the population, implying a serious disruption in energy supply and transportation.

The rest is trivial, dispensable consumption, and the undeserving spoiled of the countries of early industrialization, whose living standards are in at least relative decline among average workers, can complain all they want, but a decline - or, more likely, a 0%-2% average growth rate over the next 10-20 years -, in such consumption probably won't lead to collapse.

To be sure, financial mismanagement - e.g. of housing, medical care, retirement of an aging population, plus, however, in the real economy, inefficient transportation policy and zoning, especially in the US > reconnects back to housing and energy consumption - can play a major role in an eventual economic collapse.

But a more probable direct cause would be a major defeat in one of the several ongoing and planned oil wars (e.g. Iran and South America), but so far, despite some foibles, that does not seem to be happening either. Nevertheless, one can never rule it out completely.

Good Luck!

Last edited by bale002; 10-24-2011 at 10:10 AM..
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Old 10-24-2011, 10:47 AM
 
3,335 posts, read 2,701,717 times
Reputation: 921
Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
You can play around with financial variables and macroeconomic statistics all you want, but they tell only half the story.

Here is the real economy definition of collapse.

Economic collapse means failure to deliver water, food, basic housing (and I mean basic, not debt-financed McMansions), and electricity to the bulk of the population, implying a serious disruption in energy supply and transportation.

The rest is trivial, dispensable consumption, and the undeserving spoiled of the countries of early industrialization, whose living standards are in at least relative decline among average workers, can complain all they want, but a decline - or, more likely, a 0%-2% average growth rate over the next 10-20 years -, in such consumption probably won't lead to collapse.

To be sure, financial mismanagement - e.g. of housing, medical care, retirement of an aging population, plus, however, in the real economy, inefficient transportation policy and zoning, especially in the US > reconnects back to housing and energy consumption - can play a major role in an eventual economic collapse.

But a more probable direct cause would be a major defeat in one of the several ongoing and planned oil wars (e.g. Iran and South America), but so far, despite some foibles, that does not seem to be happening either. Nevertheless, one can never rule it out completely.

Good Luck!
Economic (designed) collapse.

1.The European union continues to bailout Greece, Ireland, Spain, and Italy.

2.Riots in the streets stop 50% of production in the aforementioned countries.
due to austerity measures.

3.Credit default swaps bring down the trading floors.

4.Class warfare brings about world warfare.

5.American Exports to Europe slow to a trickle.

6.Riots on American streets cause Politicians and Bankers to beat the war drum in order to distract attention of misdeeds, and financial corruption.

7.Israel Strikes Iran. (Very probable before the end of the year).
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