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Old 08-05-2012, 10:51 AM
 
3,335 posts, read 2,701,717 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vaughanwilliams View Post
Good thing I've spent my career practicing a marketable trade instead pushing paper.
Well do something good with it, in your community. Can you produce your own food, and fuel?

Dollars don't taste real good, and gold is hard to digest.
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Old 08-05-2012, 11:10 AM
 
85,393 posts, read 82,887,213 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by modeerf View Post
There is a demand for dollars. The problem is that the productive people of this country, have seen their credit numbers tank, thereby making it impossible for them to regain a foot hold in the economy.

It is rigged for depression, and war. There is historical repetitiveness going on here and it's clearly out of the Oligarch world citizen playbook.

The Banking Cartels are not spending because they see a bigger collapse coming, because they are part of the design. They will let their greed guide them, and wait till values drop another 50%.

The JP Morgan Great Depression model, is here. It will be and already is, far worse. The only reason it's not soup lines and riots, is because of the Fed printing Trillions in debt, allowing this criminal administration to fill the USDA with food dollars, and extending a unprecedented amount on unemployment extensions.

70% consumer economy, makes for a real cluster .... of an economy.
the reason inflation is low with all this stimulus is the lack of demand for credit and spending.

and your right, im very concerned about this for a country that depends on 70% of its gdp from consumer spending.

if more dollars chasing goods can cause inflation then the de-leveraging of us and the world and less use of credit is sucking away those dollars tilting more and more to at least a short term out look of some deflation.

in the cpi index everyone is figured as a renter. when homes were soaring it tempered the index and made inflation understated.

today doing that overstates inflation and if an index like case schillers is substituted we are actually deflating even though certain sectors like food ,medical costs and energy are high.
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Old 08-05-2012, 01:06 PM
 
Location: US Empire, Pac NW
5,008 posts, read 11,307,060 times
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I was thinking about this last night, as I was watching extreme preppers on the Discovery channel. It tracked three jobs, one for a woman who lives 15 miles from a nuclear power plant who started preserving her own food in bottles and keeping everything necessary for a few weeks' survival for her and her family and bought a $150,000 underground bunker. Another was about a family in the countryside who were buying bullets, training to shoot for both food and defense, and also preserving food and they had a steel and lead reinforced underground bunker for both flood/tsunami and nuclear fallout. Finally a guy running a business was helping another business owner create a storm shelter.

A common theme among them all was "better prepared than not" taken to an extreme. In principle, I agree. And am I saying that the world won't end anytime soon? That it's impossible? No. It's wholly possible.

Just astronomically improbable.

And if its one thing that my study of nature and human systems is, even if there were a powerful organization of people who attempted to chart our futures, is that as with all natural systems, unexpected things occur, and the end results of even the most controlled of experiments can have unexpected or undesired outcomes. I think most powerful people or entitled people would rather preserve their stature at the expense of others, and I don't see how a cataclysmic series of events culminating in a "culling" of a few billion people makes any sense.

Why? It's bad for business. And politics. If I were a business owner, I'd want to develop the next few billion people in this world to become middle class (read: SE Asia, India, and Africa). That's an incredible business opportunity. And if I were a politician, I'd see that war is at best a means to an end. And over the course of the last couple hundred years, every single monarchy, dictatorship, or totalitarian regime has found its power dwindle at best, or at worst, get overthrown. The Arab Spring is proof of that.

So that leads me to the conclusion that not only is it astronomically improbable of an end-world or radical shift scenario, but also bad for business and thus extremely improbable for such events to be attempted by humans. Bad for business = lowered profits = loss of stature. And the killing of billions would just ensure chaos, not consolidation of power.

The most likely scenarios are natural, like Yellowstone caldera erupting blanketing the earth in ash, or asteroid impact, or a mega-tsunami caused by a massive earthquake. And for those, I think I'm prepared enough.

Take care.
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Old 08-05-2012, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 15,935,395 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
the reason inflation is low with all this stimulus is the lack of demand for credit and spending.
And the fact that the EU is absorbing US Dollars and the fact that the US Dollar is still the de facto currency of trade, so nearly every country has to sell or trade something for US Dollars to buy goods on the world market.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
and your right, im very concerned about this for a country that depends on 70% of its gdp from consumer spending.
You understand we're in uncharted territory here, right?

You want me to explain ZERO Level Economies? We got 7,000 years of data to back that up. You want me to explain 1st Level Economies? We got 5,000 years of data to back that up.

You want me to explain 4th Level Economies? We got about 20 years of data.

When in history have you had a technological economy driven in part by the consumption of consumer technology (as opposed to industrial, agricultural or military technology)?

Never, except for the last 20 years or so.

And when have we have ever seen household consumers driving an economy?

Never, except for the last 20 years.

When did that change happen? You have to go back to the change in banking laws during the Carter Administration which leads to the proliferation of consumer credit. That's one reason why your economy is driven by household consumers --- they have credit.

The Gold Standard retards don't understand that.

The second you switch to the Gold Standard, personal credit ceases to exist -- there are no more credit cards -- you pay cash or die of Penis Envy or Butt-implant Envy.

No more households with 5 cars -- his-n-her SUVs, his-n-her sporty cars and the family car. If you are lucky enough to have two cars then you are the Jonses'.

That would be very traumatic for your economy -- and so will the permanent contraction of your GDP.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
if more dollars chasing goods can cause inflation then the de-leveraging of us and the world and less use of credit is sucking away those dollars tilting more and more to at least a short term out look of some deflation.
That would be true for Australia or New Zealand, but then their currencies are not the de facto international banking reserve currencies and not the de facto international currencies of trade.

For countries whose currencies are internationally traded, meaning BIS (Bank of International Settlements) accepts it or recognizes it, we use a Co-efficient of Absorption to determine how much currency a system can handle. For countries whose currency is not traded, it's a simple matter of GDP vs Money Supply. For all other counties, the system is the country itself -- but not the US whose currency is international -- so the "system" is global.

I suppose it would be easier for me to say that for the US, GDP vs Money Supply isn't relevant, rather what is relevant is GDP vs Money Supply factoring in Global Demand for US Dollars.

I did that about a 2 yeas ago, and the global system can handle about $9 TRILLION to $13 TRILLION US Dollars, but after that, those dollars would be excess and start causing Real Inflation in the US (and also to a lesser extent in those countries tied or pegged to the US Dollar -- like the Argentine Dollar which I think is still pegged to the US Dollar).

Not much point in looking at it now, because the economic problems in the EU would generate false conclusions. Even so, I'm confident in the $9 TRILLION to $13 TRILLION figure, and I already know that America doesn't have the moral courage or the stomach to balance their budget, so the US will run budget deficits averaging $1.5 TRILLION until the rest of the world cuts off the US, about 2023 or so, and then Americans will get slapped in the face with Real Inflation running about 35%-45% percent annually for about 8-9 years, before the annual rate of Real Inflation starts slacking off.

And people thought the 1970s was bad. They'll be begging for the post-WW I Real Inflation (which was much greater than the 1970s).

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
in the cpi index everyone is figured as a renter. when homes were soaring it tempered the index and made inflation understated.

today doing that overstates inflation and if an index like case schillers is substituted we are actually deflating even though certain sectors like food ,medical costs and energy are high.
The CPI is totally irrelevant and meaningless.

A proper index would show Real Inflation, Cost Inflation and Interest Inflation, instead of combining all three together leading people to make false conclusions about the economy.

For example, right now and for some time to come, the price of corn is inflating. What is that? That is Cost Inflation. What does the Federal Reserve have to do with that? Absolutely nothing, unless someone is such a nutter they believe the Federal Reserve controls the weather. What does that have to do with interest rates? Absolutely nothing, so increase the Prime Rate, or paying higher yields on treasury bonds or notes will not affect the price of corn.

The only thing that will affect the price of corn here is Supply & Demand.

Economically...

Mircea
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Old 08-05-2012, 04:50 PM
 
85,393 posts, read 82,887,213 times
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i disagree ,,,rises in prices in certain sectors are not inflation. all we are doing is pulling money that should be buying goods and services in other areas of the economy .


when all areas of the economy are rising along with our wages and employment thats my definition of inflation.

i have no clue what your saying about dollars and the esu. the fact that dollars are accepted the world over has nothing to do with how the stimulus money was absorbed .


deflation creates more demand for dollars as they buy more ... the stimulus money and rates have done nothing to spurr us because the world is de-leveraging and with de-leveraging goes reduced demand for credit no matter what rates are and the good and services that that credit would buy is reduced. all my indicators show us heading more towards deflating then any inflation for now...

ill tell you whats scarey is im a wholesaler and i was updating contract pricing for this year. the drop in prices since last year on so many products blew me away.

Last edited by mathjak107; 08-05-2012 at 05:10 PM..
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Old 08-05-2012, 06:28 PM
 
85,393 posts, read 82,887,213 times
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The point is you can print all the money you want to spur the economy.

You can make interest rates to borrow zero.

But you cant create demand for credit and loans to businesses and consumers when they dont want them so in this case there is just no takers and demand here for that money. corporations today have huge amounts of their own cash they cant find a use for, they certainly arent borrowing more.

Thats our situation and there is no real answer. the proof is so far nothing really worked. unemployment is stuck, housing prices are still a mess ,wage increases are slim to none and we all are feeling poorer as certain sectors pull money we had ear marked for other sectors.

im no economist and what i know about real economics and money supply is next to nothing but the issues seem very obvious to me.

yeah im sure some economists and gov't spokes people can twist , turn and distort the reasons but just go by what you see and usually thats the truth.

Last edited by mathjak107; 08-05-2012 at 06:41 PM..
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Old 08-05-2012, 07:05 PM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
31,341 posts, read 69,519,228 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
...corporations today have huge amounts of their own cash they cant find a use for,
they certainly arent borrowing more... unemployment is stuck... wage increases are slim to none
...but just go by what you see and usually that's the truth.
What I see is a reluctance to take greater risk by those already in business...
and a palpable fear of starting up from scratch by those with any sense who aren't in business.
Everyone pretty much just laying low and tending to their hoard (as it devalues).

Some I suspect are still waiting to see if the wind will blow differently after November.
Most of them have been doing that for four years now.

But regardless of how many dollars -from whatever source- that might be poured into business
the fundamental underlying problem remains one of finding a way for the surplus 30 million warm
bodies in the working age bracket to earn enough to have something that resembles a middle class
existence paid for FROM that work.

I don't think the people with the serious money have any desire to see that happen.
I think they LIKE having such a disproportionate pool of unemployed.
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Old 08-05-2012, 07:37 PM
 
85,393 posts, read 82,887,213 times
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There is a total de-leveraging going on world wide.

While all the borrowed money would buy more goods and services when you stop borrowing it has the opposite effect.

Even dealing with the fiscal cliff spells de-leveraging as debt is cut and less and less money is buying less and less goods. Thats just the opposite of inflation.

Companies are gun shy about spending much cash at all.

After all why not hold on to your cash as cash becomes more valuable as we deflate.

The reason congress is so not together on what to do is because there is no immeadiate answer.

Zero interest rates are not something the fed plotted . They are zero in a number of countries around the world with some even at negative rates.

All with the same results,they have not helped since you cant create demand in a market where there is no demand .

Think about the fact wall street wants you to buy stocks when the same companies they are telling you to buy wont even by their own stock or another companies,thats why many have huge amounts of cash.

Im not a speculator anymore but if i were i would bet the ranch on zero coupon treasuries for my long term money.

If things are really headed near term the way it looks your downside is you will get 2-3% in interest with the potential for a 25-30% capital gain.

Last edited by mathjak107; 08-05-2012 at 08:10 PM..
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Old 08-06-2012, 08:01 PM
 
Location: SoCal
1,529 posts, read 3,601,739 times
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SImple..

The Illumanti, New World Order etc have reign over Japan.. The Japanese government are nothing more than just a bunch of puppets.. Btw the Illumanti are behind this whole 'green' idea of global warming etc etc..

Their goals are simple to deacrease wealth, prosperity & population..

It's happeining in EUrope and it's starting to happen in USA..

We need to wake up and seriously change things!
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Old 08-06-2012, 10:53 PM
 
3,335 posts, read 2,701,717 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yowps3 View Post
SImple..

The Illumanti, New World Order etc have reign over Japan.. The Japanese government are nothing more than just a bunch of puppets.. Btw the Illumanti are behind this whole 'green' idea of global warming etc etc..

Their goals are simple to deacrease wealth, prosperity & population..

It's happeining in EUrope and it's starting to happen in USA..

We need to wake up and seriously change things!
It can start in your home town. Build up men that can handle the truth. The rest of the world is fooked.

They love their lives, and will lose them.
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