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Old 10-29-2011, 02:21 PM
 
3,335 posts, read 2,714,127 times
Reputation: 921

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Depressions and recessions look very similar in their early stages.
The main difference between recessions and depressions is that depressions come in two waves.
The first wave make the problems apparent. But not necessarily the solutions
Then comes the process of tying to deal with those problems. So long as people have confidence that the solutions have some hope, the economy improves, temporarily.
If dealt with successfully, there will be no second wave and the economy will recover.
If dealt with unsuccessfully, there is a second wave, which confirms the lack of confidence in the solutions attempted.
It is not hard to anticipate what is coming when you look at the success of what we have done.
We have attempted many things to repair the economy, none of which addresses the underlying causes.
We tried tax rebates, which were supposed to avert a recession, they were unsuccessful.
We tried Bail outs when the recession began, they were unsuccessful.
We tried QE1. It was unsuccessful.
We tried economic stimulus in several forms from unemployment benefits, to jobs bills. They were unsuccessful.
We tried QE2, and extending the tax cuts, it was unsuccessful.
We are now trying more FED easing and additional jobs bills. None of these things were successful because none of them address the underlying cause of economic decline which is loss of industries and the jobs that went with them.
Unemployment and economic deterioration continue to grow.
Depressions come as admission that all attempts to end economic decline did not work.
That is the point we are approaching.
It is also prudent to note that the second wave of a depression is usually worse than the first.
As well as the second great depression will be worse.

Especially in a A-moral society.
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Old 10-29-2011, 02:27 PM
 
2,515 posts, read 1,826,917 times
Reputation: 362
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Depressions and recessions look very similar in their early stages.
The main difference between recessions and depressions is that depressions come in two waves.
The first wave make the problems apparent. But not necessarily the solutions
Then comes the process of tying to deal with those problems. So long as people have confidence that the solutions have some hope, the economy improves, temporarily.
If dealt with successfully, there will be no second wave and the economy will recover.
If dealt with unsuccessfully, there is a second wave, which confirms the lack of confidence in the solutions attempted.
It is not hard to anticipate what is coming when you look at the success of what we have done.
We have attempted many things to repair the economy, none of which addresses the underlying causes.
We tried tax rebates, which were supposed to avert a recession, they were unsuccessful.
We tried Bail outs when the recession began, they were unsuccessful.
We tried QE1. It was unsuccessful.
We tried economic stimulus in several forms from unemployment benefits, to jobs bills. They were unsuccessful.
We tried QE2, and extending the tax cuts, it was unsuccessful.
We are now trying more FED easing and additional jobs bills. None of these things were successful because none of them address the underlying cause of economic decline which is loss of industries and the jobs that went with them.
Unemployment and economic deterioration continue to grow.
Depressions come as admission that all attempts to end economic decline did not work.
That is the point we are approaching.
It is also prudent to note that the second wave of a depression is usually worse than the first.
My plan that everyone is tired of hearing about does things to get temporary relief of the effects of the loss of industry and it does something to address long term rebuilding of those industries. An effective national savings plan should balance trade and rebuild our industrial base.
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Old 10-29-2011, 03:29 PM
 
3,335 posts, read 2,714,127 times
Reputation: 921
Quote:
Originally Posted by newonecoming2 View Post
My plan that everyone is tired of hearing about does things to get temporary relief of the effects of the loss of industry and it does something to address long term rebuilding of those industries. An effective national savings plan should balance trade and rebuild our industrial base.
Rebuilding our industrial base will take some degree of rebellion.
The greens, epa, and various enviro "not see" clubs will fight it.
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Old 10-29-2011, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles area
14,017 posts, read 18,950,146 times
Reputation: 32445
Quote:
Originally Posted by modeerf View Post
Rebuilding our industrial base will take some degree of rebellion.
The greens, epa, and various enviro "not see" clubs will fight it.
Damn! I didn't think I would ever see the day! I agree totally with a post by Modeerf.
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Old 10-30-2011, 02:00 PM
 
2,515 posts, read 1,826,917 times
Reputation: 362
Quote:
Originally Posted by modeerf View Post
Rebuilding our industrial base will take some degree of rebellion.
The greens, epa, and various enviro "not see" clubs will fight it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
Damn! I didn't think I would ever see the day! I agree totally with a post by Modeerf.



All it would take is a stable regulatory environment. It doesn't matter restrictive or not. Just as long as it is stable. If the economy does crash then “they” mint see the light. There are people that are using the environmental movement as a power base and to justify actions that are otherwise not in everyone best interest. Here is an argument for doing industry here. When they do it in China they do it dirty when they do it here they do it clean. We are down wind from China. So doing it here makes it cleaner everywhere.
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Old 10-30-2011, 02:05 PM
 
28,833 posts, read 31,509,733 times
Reputation: 30047
Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
I don't think so. More a muddling through. You've fallen into the "hysteria" trap where you equate stagnation with collapse. I think things will continue on as they are until the next great boom cycle. Right now is quite similar to how things were in the mid-70s. That was not followed by collapse.
The huge flaw in this kind of thinking is that in the 1970s we did not have the huge wave of people about to retire and draw Medicare and Social Security benefits.
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Old 10-30-2011, 02:25 PM
 
2,515 posts, read 1,826,917 times
Reputation: 362
Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
I don't think so. More a muddling through. You've fallen into the "hysteria" trap where you equate stagnation with collapse. I think things will continue on as they are until the next great boom cycle. Right now is quite similar to how things were in the mid-70s. That was not followed by collapse.
http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkl...ow-vs-gold.jpg
http://www.bearishnews.com/wp-conten...l-debt-gdp.jpg I'd say it has more in common with the 1930's than the 1970's. The total debt is in particular out of whack. The 1970's were followed by the biggest debt bubble ever. We are looking at the biggest debt bubble pop ever. Doom and gloom. Yep that is what we are in for.
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Old 11-03-2011, 12:37 PM
 
2,401 posts, read 4,245,545 times
Reputation: 2188
If the economy goes up... I am fine with that.
BUT...
If it all goes down hill from there.... lets just say I am prepared for that as well.

It all depends on the self...
on how one will adapt to that very situation thrown at you.
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Old 11-04-2011, 07:23 PM
 
Location: World
4,184 posts, read 3,983,443 times
Reputation: 2773
Quote:
Originally Posted by mooguy View Post
I don't know if we will have a complete collapse or not but we are certainly going to go into a very major recession or depression.
I could definately see another 1930s depression. The water and subways still ran and so to did the schools and hospitals but unemployment soared, real wages and standard of living plunged, and poverty, hunger, and dispair were rampant.
The situation today is not even comparable to the 1970s. Although the 70s was stagnant economically the US was the world's only true economic powerhouse, your currency was the world standard, your manufacturing sector was the world's largest, you didn't have low wage China to compete with, your government and household debt levels were half what they are today, the middle class was the largest it had ever been in your history, your banks were strong and the population was still relatively young as opposed to heading into retirement with the massive medical and social secuity costs that it will bring.
Also the world was a far less "connected" place were a recession in one country didn't neccesarily mean a recession in another. Today our economies and banking sectors are so intwined that a tiny little economy like Greece's { which only represents 3 % of Europes GDP} can bring our entire global banking system to it's knees.
The situation today is much, much, much worse than in the 1970s.
Since the 1980s the western world's growth has, in large part, come from money growth but not growth in productivity or actual wealth. In the last 30 year there has been little real growth in wages or household income when ajusted for inflation yet we ssem to still have more "toys". Our house sizes have soared but the number of people in them has dropped.
How did we achieve this?................it's called debt. We have made the transition from wealth economy to a money economy is a shockingly short amount of time. We have built a global economy based on a pozi scheme were everyone was happy as long as they could pay their debt to the other guy so he could pay his. Now we have just one tiny country on the edge of default and the whole house of cards implodes.
That's the trouble with a debt economy.......if just one person decides to withdraw from the game
and not pay their bills then no one gets paid.
The emporor has no clothes.
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Old 11-04-2011, 08:19 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,068 posts, read 76,995,336 times
Reputation: 27653
The imbalances are very similar to the era of the Great Depression.
Remember the market crashed in 1929 and it wasn't until 4-5 years later that they officially acknowledged "depression".

The roaring 20's led to imbalance and lots of debt with easy access. Kinda mirrors what we had for a while with the housing boom, stock market boom and easy "credit" boom.
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