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Old 10-27-2011, 07:48 PM
 
20,587 posts, read 19,249,140 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
Very funny. My ex-neighbor graduated with a PhD in art history and got three or four job offers. Her husband, a chem engineer (Worcester Polytech) in his thirties, got laid off from a good job and has not been able to find another in his field for over two years. He is working at a local brewery. The son of a student of mine just graduated with a fine arts degree and immediately got a tech job at a TV station, many of his fellow grads are out of work. So much for such theories.

What do you mean not in his field? Have you no respect for organic chemistry that makes people so happy and good looking?
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Old 10-27-2011, 07:51 PM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 21,918,038 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gwynedd1 View Post
What do you mean not in his field? Have you no respect for organic chemistry that makes people so happy and good looking?
Yup you've got a point there. Maybe he'll climb the corporate ladder to the top of the vat, proving that those outrageous bucks for his pricey education was worth it....
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Old 10-27-2011, 07:54 PM
 
143 posts, read 377,686 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
Very funny. My ex-neighbor graduated with a PhD in art history and got three or four job offers. Her husband, a chem engineer (Worcester Polytech) in his thirties, got laid off from a good job and has not been able to find another in his field for over two years. He is working at a local brewery. The son of a student of mine just graduated with a fine arts degree and immediately got a tech job at a TV station, many of his fellow grads are out of work. So much for such theories.
...because as we all know, a couple of examples out of a sample space of several million is enough to prove something.
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Old 10-27-2011, 08:10 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,910,049 times
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The true problem with hnsq's proposal is as more majored in STEM for reasons of lower costs to them, supply demand changes, and its impossible to manage changing tons of interest rates in real time, while being fair to kids who majored in X based on rate differential. Plus, quite frankly, we need majors in EVERY field. While the quantity varies, the mix must be complete.
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Old 10-28-2011, 06:18 AM
 
9,855 posts, read 15,168,255 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cletus Awreetus-Awrightus View Post
i wouldn't call that simple. you're relying on the modeler to produce a mathematical model that represents real-world phenomenon, and you're relying on the people who managing the input data to do so correctly. Every model bears the assumptions and flaws of the modeler.

who lends the money? private banks? the government?
Private banks would lend the money, in my ideal system. Government is never the most efficient option, and frankly, the government does not have the money to spare right now. And obviously every model has flaws, but we use such models every day. How do you think SS taxes are calculated? How do you think investment percentages in your 401k are calculated? How do you think routes that UPS drivers take are calculated? Obviously you rely on people doing their jobs correctly. That is the way the world works.

Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
Very funny. My ex-neighbor graduated with a PhD in art history and got three or four job offers. Her husband, a chem engineer (Worcester Polytech) in his thirties, got laid off from a good job and has not been able to find another in his field for over two years. He is working at a local brewery. The son of a student of mine just graduated with a fine arts degree and immediately got a tech job at a TV station, many of his fellow grads are out of work. So much for such theories.
Are you serious? Stop and think for just two seconds before you post something like this. Would you look your son in the eyes and tell him that art history has a better chance of making him a good salary than engineering? Would you loan $100k of your own personal money to a random person to have them major in art history? My god...the stupidity on this forum.

If you want to borrow money from another person, it is entirely reasonable for that person to structure the loan to maximize the chance they get their money back. If you want to study a field with a high risk of non payment (such as philosophy), then you pay a higher interest rate. An art history major might get an 18% interest rate on a student loan where an engineer major gets a 3% rate. The 18% drives enough people out of the market for art history degrees so that the only people who end up actually choosing that major are the ones who are reasonably certain they can get their money back from it (such as your ex-neighbor).

Risk management is not about eliminating risk. Obviously there are still going to be philosophy majors who do well financially and obviously there are still going to be computer scientists from MIT who struggle, but you can minimize those risks through strategically setting interest rates on loans.
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Old 10-28-2011, 06:24 AM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 21,918,038 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TEnterprises View Post
...because as we all know, a couple of examples out of a sample space of several million is enough to prove something.
For every iron-clad "theory" built on "statistics" there is empirical evidence to prove it wrong. There are many exceptions to a rule as there are individuals.
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Old 10-28-2011, 06:36 AM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 21,918,038 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hnsq View Post
Are you serious? Stop and think for just two seconds before you post something like this. Would you look your son in the eyes and tell him that art history has a better chance of making him a good salary than engineering? Would you loan $100k of your own personal money to a random person to have them major in art history? My god...the stupidity on this forum.
I live within one of the highest volume College/University areas of the country, where graduates are being ground out by the thousands at the end of each semester. Those who majored in sure-fire degrees are NOT necessarily getting the jobs that were practically promised on a platter. Ask any young waiter or retail salesperson (or freelancer) around here what s/he majored in and you'll get some startling answers. Oddly, a good number of those with more "creative" degrees have been able to isolate or combine different skill sets and reinvent their career track after graduation. They are not necessarily the bulk of those going to job fairs waiting for a job to fall out of the sky in their specific field, unemployed for months or years. (How many lawyers and engineers can the market bear?) The Americorps programs are full of grads whose degrees were supposed to net them a job or allow them to keep the job they had. As much as what you say sounds like it should be true, we've entered a new era in which there are no simplistic answers to the complexity of our new jobs environment within the context of a global economy.
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Old 10-28-2011, 06:44 AM
 
9,855 posts, read 15,168,255 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
I live within one of the highest volume College/University areas of the country, where graduates are being ground out by the thousands at the end of each semester. Those who majored in sure-fire degrees are NOT necessarily getting the jobs that were practically promised on a platter. Ask any young waiter or retail salesperson (or freelancer) around here what s/he majored in and you'll get some startling answers. Oddly, a good number of those with more "creative" degrees have been able to isolate or combine different skill sets and reinvent their career track after graduation. They are not necessarily the bulk of those going to job fairs waiting for a job to fall out of the sky in their specific field, unemployed for months or years. (How many lawyers and engineers can the market bear?) The Americorps programs are full of grads whose degrees were supposed to net them a job or allow them to keep the job they had. As much as what you say sounds like it should be true, we've entered a new era in which there are no simplistic answers to the complexity of our new jobs environment within the context of a global economy.
I agree, which is why we need to build statistical models to mitigate the risk of giving student loans to people with a low chance of payback.

There are obviously a lot of factors, and not only degree, but rank and reputation of the school makes a big difference. A computer science degree from MIT and a computer science degree from the university of the phoenix are two very different things.

All models are wrong. Some are useful. What I am proposing is not a 100% solution, it is a 70% solution, but that 70% solution is much better than where we are today.
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Old 10-28-2011, 07:20 AM
 
Location: Near a river
16,042 posts, read 21,918,038 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hnsq View Post
I agree, which is why we need to build statistical models to mitigate the risk of giving student loans to people with a low chance of payback.

There are obviously a lot of factors, and not only degree, but rank and reputation of the school makes a big difference. A computer science degree from MIT and a computer science degree from the university of the phoenix are two very different things.

All models are wrong. Some are useful. What I am proposing is not a 100% solution, it is a 70% solution, but that 70% solution is much better than where we are today.
Look, the main problem is that college is not for everyone. It is simply not needed if high school and vocational education is top notch, which it will never be in our country.

Before WWII, college was for the elite. That generation's lower and middle classes completed high school and went directly into the work force, or they were wealthy enough to go to college. There were no loans, mommy and daddy or grandpa paid the bill. The grads in that era were not personally burdened with paying off thousands upon thousands in student loans over their lifetime.

So the elite upper professions in medicine, law, etc. stayed in the realm of the upper classes. But the lower and middle class could ALWAYS find a job. Some went to night school and got certificates in something, like CAD, and got promising entry level jobs and climbed the ladder over the years till retirement with a nice pension.

Post WWII, the boom years, the boomer kids....started getting sold the American Dream bill of sale...go to college! anyone can do it, just get good grades, be on the football team or the debate club, write a good application essay, and you'll have your pick! Can't pay for college?? Not to worry! Just have dad fill out this FAFSA form here, and we'll get you a mix of private and public loans...you'll get a great job and can pay these loans back in no time! Now hit the books, and be a good student...you'll see!

Well, it worked that way for the boomer generation, in large part. But it now appears, for the boomer's kids, that the whole thing is being exposed for the sham it is. Grads are coming out of college and U burdened with crippling debt, and even those who thought they were choosing well in the major are not finding jobs in their field. Some, with money behind them, turn to being a realtor, driver, ESL teacher, or other that only required a GED and training certificate in the first place! Why did they waste all that time and money in a liberal arts degree or a specific degree in which they cannot even compete on a global level?? (i.e., such as the situation with Chinese engineers/contractors getting the contract to rebuild the U.S. infrastructure).

It is a global economy now. Many of these U.S. grads are going global with their job search, but they're up against medical and engineering grads/professionals from other lands (India, China, etc). So in a very real sense, we cannot talk about "our country" anymore, for who owns the U.S. really? It's ironic we want to "secure our borders" but we cannot secure the good jobs being sucked away beyond them.
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Old 10-28-2011, 07:23 AM
 
9,855 posts, read 15,168,255 times
Reputation: 5481
Quote:
Originally Posted by newenglandgirl View Post
Look, the main problem is that college is not for everyone. It is simply not needed if high school and vocational education is top notch, which it will never be in our country.

Before WWII, college was for the elite. That generation's lower and middle classes completed high school and went directly into the work force, or they were wealthy enough to go to college. There were no loans, mommy and daddy or grandpa paid the bill. So the elite upper professions in medicine, law, etc. stayed in the realm of the upper classes. But the lower and middle class could ALWAYS find a job. Some went to night school and got certificates in something, like CAD, and got promising entry level jobs and climbed the ladder over the years till retirement with a nice pension.

Post WWII, the boom years, the boomer kids....started getting sold the American Dream bill of sale...go to college! anyone can do it, just get good grades, be on the football team or the debate club, write a good application essay, and you'll have your pick! Can't pay for college?? Not to worry! Just have dad fill out this FAFSA form here, and we'll get you a mix of private and public loans...you'll get a great job and can pay these loans back in no time! Now hit the books, and be a good student...you'll see!

Well, it worked that way for the boomer generation, in large part. But it now appears, for the boomer's kids, that the whole thing is being exposed for the sham it is. Grads are coming out of college and U burdened with crippling debt, and even those who thought they were choosing well in the major are not finding jobs in their field. Some, with money behind them, turn to being a realtor, driver, ESL teacher, or other that only required a GED and training certificate in the first place! Why did they waste all that time and money in a liberal arts degree or a specific degree in which they cannot even compete on a global level?? (i.e., such as the situation with Chinese engineers/contractors getting the contract to rebuild the U.S. infrastructure).

It is a global economy now. Many of these U.S. grads are going global with their job search, but they're up against medical and engineering grads/professionals from other lands (India, China, etc). So in a very real sense, we cannot talk about "our country" anymore, for who owns the U.S. really? It's ironic we want to "secure our borders" but we cannot secure the good jobs being sucked away beyond them.
Rep for this. I couldn't agree more. I think my plan would prevent some people from going to college (you want to major in dance at a low ranked school? Pay 18% interest, which causes the person to decide to do something else).

We have made it so easy to go to college, when realistically loans should be somewhat difficult to find for the average American.
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