The Economy Is About To Get A Whole Lot Worse.....

[shaker281]

Not a single credible economic source can produce evidence we are in a "world wide recession". Youtube videos of extremist opinions do not constitute evidence. Emerging markets are doing fine and the US economy has been showing continual signs of improvement for the last 3 years. Europe may go into recession, hardly world wide though.

In the US, the unemployment situation continues to improve. Corporate balance sheets (P/Es and cash on hand) are stronger than ever and the housing situation is coming off the bottom.

Home resales at 1-1/2 year-high, supply falls - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/existing-home-sales-1-1-2-yr-high-150611022.html - broken link)

Jobs returning to the US:

Made in USA: Companies bringing overseas jobs home - Jun. 17, 2011
Guess What? utsourced USA Jobs May Be Coming Back!
The Return of the Outsourced Job - BusinessWeek
The Case Against Shifting Production To China; Hidden Costs And Growing Risks Make U.S. Attractive For Manufacturing

In fact, once you factor in rising (emerging market) labor costs, lower productivity, shipping costs and delays, there is a strong case that the US will see the balance tip in it's favor by 2015.

Too little oversight is how the credit crisis was allowed to percolate. it is not about how much regulation is imposed, it is about what kind of regulation is implemented.

Despite all politically motivated claims to the contrary, in the face of health care legislation, the health care industry in the US is thriving. It is in fact one of the best economic sectors of the past two years. Waivers are being given, so as not to overburden small business. Provide proof they are being given indiscriminately or without cause.

If people spent less time spouting political rhetoric, conspiracy theory and foretelling doom, they might have the time and energy to better themselves intellectually and financially. While some folks were calling for food riots and chaos, others were moving to take advantage of the opportunities that the last 3 years have afforded us.

The DJIA has gone from 6500 to 13000 since 2008. Who should we believe? The same folks banging the same old drum for the past 3 years, or the folks who doubled their money or paid off debt believing the fundamentals? While interest rates were at historical lows, that was the time to refinance debt. While equity valuations were at rock bottom, that was the time to invest in great companies. While bond returns were at all time highs that was the time to invest in fixed income.

Some day folks will look back at the last several years as a once in a lifetime opportunity. The only question will be whether you grasped that opportunity or missed that opportunity, due to a stubborn refusal to face reality. Honestly, I believe, some of you folks should talk to a health care professional. Maybe some medication would improve your quality of life. I am not being facetious.

[floridasandy]

Originally Posted by shaker281

Not a single credible economic source can produce evidence we are in a "world wide recession". Youtube videos of extremist opinions do not constitute evidence. Emerging markets are doing fine and the US economy has been showing continual signs of improvement for the last 3 years. Europe may go into recession, hardly world wide though.

In the US, the unemployment situation continues to improve. Corporate balance sheets (P/Es and cash on hand) are stronger than ever and the housing situation is coming off the bottom.

Home resales at 1-1/2 year-high, supply falls - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/existing-home-sales-1-1-2-yr-high-150611022.html - broken link)

Jobs returning to the US:

Made in USA: Companies bringing overseas jobs home - Jun. 17, 2011
Guess What? utsourced USA Jobs May Be Coming Back!
The Return of the Outsourced Job - BusinessWeek
The Case Against Shifting Production To China; Hidden Costs And Growing Risks Make U.S. Attractive For Manufacturing

In fact, once you factor in rising (emerging market) labor costs, lower productivity, shipping costs and delays, there is a strong case that the US will see the balance tip in it's favor by 2015.

Too little oversight is how the credit crisis was allowed to percolate. it is not about how much regulation is imposed, it is about what kind of regulation is implemented.

Despite all politically motivated claims to the contrary, in the face of health care legislation, the health care industry in the US is thriving. It is in fact one of the best economic sectors of the past two years. Waivers are being given, so as not to overburden small business. Provide proof they are being given indiscriminately or without cause.

If people spent less time spouting political rhetoric, conspiracy theory and foretelling doom, they might have the time and energy to better themselves intellectually and financially. While some folks were calling for food riots and chaos, others were moving to take advantage of the opportunities that the last 3 years have afforded us.

The DJIA has gone from 6500 to 13000 since 2008. Who should we believe? The same folks banging the same old drum for the past 3 years, or the folks who doubled their money or paid off debt believing the fundamentals? While interest rates were at historical lows, that was the time to refinance debt. While equity valuations were at rock bottom, that was the time to invest in great companies. While bond returns were at all time highs that was the time to invest in fixed income.

Some day folks will look back at the last several years as a once in a lifetime opportunity. The only question will be whether you grasped that opportunity or missed that opportunity, due to a stubborn refusal to face reality. Honestly, I believe, some of you folks should talk to a health care professional. Maybe some medication would improve your quality of life. I am not being facetious.

the only thing i see improving is the DJIA, and that is because we have a plunge protection team, and a HUGE amount of leverage still being allowed.

what other industry has that?

i don't see an answer forthcoming for the unsustainability of the newly increased food stamp, social service, and disability claims, nor do i see a solution to the fact that social security is paying out more than it is taking in currently, and the money people put away (trusted to the government to manage) has been already spent.

i don't see the point of posting those charts yet again, as i am sure that everyone who wants to see them has seen them already.

i can't even tell you how much fraud is going on in the existing housing market-but needless to say that the government is heavily involved with the fraud and the artificial propping up of existing home sales-even as sale prices continue to decline.
from econoday's latest release:
Highlights
The home builders' housing market index may be indicating a surge of strength underway in the new home market, but this surge has yet to appear in current sales of new homes. New home sales fell 2.2 percent to a disappointingly soft annual rate of 307,000 vs the Econoday consensus for 320,000. Details show a swing lower in the South which in this series is by far the largest and most important region. Nationally, the number of new homes on the market slipped slightly but not enough to offset the larger decline in sales, making for an uptick to 6.1 months of supply. This is the first time in six months that this reading failed to improve.


new home sales are down yet again, and so are prices, and i haven't shown that chart before:


if you think we aren't in a worldwide recession perhaps you should start reading some of the foreign newspapers that are readily available online, or watch all the riots on the you tube videos from various countries.

if there this massive world recovery, why do we have the need for yet another bailout package in greece? why is the bank of london embarking on another round of quantitative easing? why is greece pledging their gold reserves to the technocrats?(see mish's global economic analysis).

[floridasandy]

i will say, though, that some of the wall street people DO get very wealthy on all this insane leverage-as shown in the zero hedge graph:
Presenting The Only Beneficiary From Record Global Leverage | ZeroHedge

my favorite line so far has been from charles hugh smith:

when risk is disconnected from consequence, the system itself is at risk.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb12/...uence2-12.html

our government has chosen to eliminate the consequences of bad behavior, thereby absolutely guaranteeing that there will be much more bad behavior.

[HappyTexan]

And one thing everyone is doing is ignoring the growing deficit.
Spend and cut taxes while social programs operate in the red.

Just how long do you think we can ignore this ?

[texdav]

Do you really think that taxing and spending will work at these level. Nope .It takes growth and cuts just as when Clinton was presdient. The problem now is that we cannot cut military budget as then because its stayed at level of 4%. Remmeber the clinton peace dividend. Cuts like Greece are comig but not really as servere as greece hasn't seen growth and has massive debt based on high bond yields that increases the bill owed.

[Be Free]

It kills me that people grab onto that "corporations are sitting on money!" propaganda. I just saw a chart at the ticker forum that shows how much DEBT those corporations have. It's unreal. The MSM doesn't mention that part though, do they? Everything's fine!! We're recovering! Go shopping!

[floridasandy]

Originally Posted by floridasandy

i will say, though, that some of the wall street people DO get very wealthy on all this insane leverage-as shown in the zero hedge graph:
Presenting The Only Beneficiary From Record Global Leverage | ZeroHedge

my favorite line so far has been from charles hugh smith:

when risk is disconnected from consequence, the system itself is at risk.

charles hugh smith-When Risk Is Disconnected From Consequence, the System Itself Is at Risk

our government has chosen to eliminate the consequences of bad behavior, thereby absolutely guaranteeing that there will be much more bad behavior.

speaking of getting very wealthy, i saw this today:
The news that disgraced former European Commission President, Jacques Santer has been appointed as boss of the EU's bailout fund, improbably named the Special Purpose Investment Vehicle (Spiv), is 'almost laughable,' said Nigel Farage MEP, the UKIP leader.

story:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...bail-outs.html


also interesting- from wikipedia - is that the guy has connections to nadhmi auchi, (convicted of fraud) who also has connections to tony rezko (also convicted of fraud), blagojevich (also convicted of fraud) and obama. (not yet)

small world.

this should work out well.