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Old 03-13-2012, 07:59 PM
3,327 posts, read 3,812,361 times
Reputation: 2859


Yes, he does run a Hedge Fund and those folks have done pretty well even through the recession/depression. However, Dalio is a big shot even among Wall St. and I think he has a point here.

Considering that the bubble that popped in '07-'08 was as big or even greater than the one in '29, times aren't that bad. Yes, the underemployment rate is around 16% but the unemployment rate during the depression was at least 10 points higher. A lot of people are on food stamps but what should we do? Let them starve just to show how bad it can be? Yes, there is a generational shift in the labor market but UEC has been extended and the feds have been granting SSDI like it's going out of style.

It can all blow up eventually especially if debt levels don't further subside. However, it isn't that bad considering it is a depression.


Ray Dalio
Man and machine
The economic ideas of the world’s most successful hedge-fund boss
“THE most beautiful deleveraging yet seen” is how Ray Dalio describes what is now going on in America’s economy. As America has gone through the necessary process of reducing its debt-to-income ratio since the financial crash of 2008, he reckons its policymakers have done well in mixing painful stuff like debt restructuring with injections of cash to keep demand growing. Europe’s deleveraging, by contrast, is “ugly”.

Ray Dalio: Man and machine | The Economist

Last edited by wawaweewa; 03-13-2012 at 08:08 PM..
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Old 03-15-2012, 01:28 AM
Location: US Empire, Pac NW
5,008 posts, read 11,344,703 times
Reputation: 4125
I would have to read his papers more thoroughly to get an idea of his theories, but I think his central tenet of tracking the money is smart. Track the capital inflows and outflows and you get a good idea of who has the money and who is on borrowed time.

And he admits to being wrong at least some of the time, which is good.

And he doesn't fall into the pitfall of trying to show "cycles" or "waves" or other gobbledygook that others have tried and failed to apply to the market.

SO on the surface he looks intelligent and has interesting ideas.

Though like everything in investing, I won't put all my eggs into what he says.
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