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Old 06-20-2012, 07:20 PM
 
12,798 posts, read 16,453,374 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cpg35223 View Post
No. Actually creating a regulatory and tax environment where businesses can competitively manufacture in this country is what will create growth, not just building a bunch of high-speed rail lines to nowhere. Aiding entrepreneurial growth is critical as well, given how small companies are the ones that create growth.
Sure we should encourage businesses to manufacture, but wouldn't it be great if the businesses could move goods to and from the factories efficiently? How much does industry spend rerouting trucks around deficient bridges, for example.
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Old 06-20-2012, 07:29 PM
 
28,900 posts, read 49,099,920 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pvande55 View Post
Sure we should encourage businesses to manufacture, but wouldn't it be great if the businesses could move goods to and from the factories efficiently? How much does industry spend rerouting trucks around deficient bridges, for example.
Without question. But is that really an impediment to commerce right now? The essential proposition isn't whether or not our transportation could use an upgrade. The proposition is whether flinging hundreds of billions, even trillions, at the problem is how we'll dig our way out of this economic quagmire. And a gleaming rail network and newly-asphalted highways won't do us much good if there aren't enough domestic manufacturers to transport their products to market. All you'll need is a decent railway to ship imported products from container ports in places such as Long Beach, Houston, and Jacksonville to various distribution centers around the country.
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Old 06-21-2012, 08:17 AM
 
Location: Londonderry, NH
41,478 posts, read 54,159,970 times
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We move most of our intercity passengers by air. Ever think of the value of high speed electric powered rail when airplane fuel is over $10 per gallon?
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Old 06-21-2012, 08:34 AM
 
5,409 posts, read 10,331,858 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cpg35223 View Post
Actually, no. Can you say Hawley Smoot?
A common misconception -- but do you actually understand Hawley Smoot? You understand I am not knocking you on that? A LOT of effort at mis-education has been put upon US by the CFR and other Globalist / US operations to not question the Global Plantation Nation.

A common claim by the Free Traders (which are of course only [Tax] Free [Corporate] Traders), is that Hawley Smoot helped cause the Depression. Since we are smart enough to use Cause Based Analysis, we can look back and see that the Great Depression was already well into play before HS. Cause must precede events . . . so that is a No Go.

AND Hawley Smoot was brought about when the US was a Net Exporter. You also follow that difference between then and now? Import Tariffs -- such as would be good for US, now, are Good for Net Importers. Have to be a little bit smarter than the tools used, here.

We can agree that the US is a Net Importer, correct? The trade accounts are so out of whack that we nearly eclipse the rest of the world in this regard. Have you seen the numbers?

For folks not familiar with this . . . here is a backgrounder.

Balance of trade - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

List of sovereign states by current account balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Dead Last of 192 countries.

Bottom line is that since the Rise of "Wealth-Without-Work-Reaganomics" our only true growth has been debt.

America has become a farce and a lie.


Quote:
The problem is with the costs of doing biz in the U.S. The CEO of Intel did an interview recently, discussing manufacturing domestically versus doing so overseas. It costs roughly a billion dollars more to build a plant in the U.S. than it does in Asia, and only $100 million of that is in labor costs. The rest is taxation and regulation.
Just tax at the border (that Tariff thingy, again) and the numbers all balance. At the same time, by doing that we could eliminate all federal income tax on folks under $100K and come out much better.

Quote:
One of my clients is a large furniture manufacturer. Today, he has to manufacture roughly 50% of his lines overseas.
"Has to"? Interesting choice of words, there. Are roughly 50% of his sales overseas?

Quote:
This guy is the classic owner of a family company, who cares about his community and tries to take care of his workers. Yet, despite doing his level best to actually pull some of his manufacturing back to the U.S., he cannot figure out how to do it in a way that makes those particular lines cost-effective for the consumer.
Use small business subcontractors in the US. Is this really THAT hard to figure out?

Quote:
Because his plant is in Michigan, he has to deal with a book of Federal and State regulations that could choke a horse. His estimate? A good 20% of his costs are simply dealing with governmental affairs--the equivalent of half his AGI on his entry-level lines.
And he still will not use US subcontractors?

Quote:
Mind you, this isn't the kind of CEO who tries to cut corners. A highly ethical man. A guy you'd want to work for.
Probably not. If he cannot figure this one out.

Quote:
So when he talks about the millstone of government, you know he's shooting straight.
Sorry, but I deal with this in the Real World, too.

Most the business folks are bit . . . umm . . . lack-wit. Is that a kind enough term?

Quote:
So he has to suffer the problem of a 13- to 14-lag between order and delivery from China in order to provide a good price point, while his domestic stuff is out the factory door within six days of order.
I usually give up on the folks that are sort "stuck in the problem."


Quote:
What's more, an infrastructure approach to building the economy can be a dangerous path.
Again, the direction of the aim matters (MUCH) more than the method. If the Feds were actually taking US off Oil by the Stimulus / Infrastructure -- we would have a new Golden Era.

Quote:
China has relied on that extensively, with construction amounting to roughly 25% of their GDP for years. The problem is that they haven't been able to stop building without adverse economic effects, so now there is a huge oversupply. For example, in Shanghai and Beijing at this moment, there is a 10- and 11-year oversupply of housing in those markets. Just as a comparison, cities such as Las Vegas and Phoenix only had a year's excess inventory at the top of the real estate bubble. And of course there are the well-publicizied 'ghost cities' built in the middle of nowhere to house 1,000,000 residents or more that are completely uninhabited. The last time I checked, the occupancy rates in all those gleaming Shanghai skyscrapers is at the 25-35% mark, when profitability typically comes at the 75% occupancy rate. Even as we speak, there is an ongoing downward pressure on real estate values. This government-driven oversupply means we could be looking at an epic decline in real estate values in China, a drop that will make our real estate decline look like a hiccup in comparison. So all that ballyhooed Chinese growth and prosperity might be an illusion, the product of smoke and mirrors. Heck, even in our own economic history, the benefits have been dubious. After all, seven years into FDR's enormous spending program for infrastructure during the Great Depression, 1939 unemployment levels were 17.3%. So much for the notion that building a bunch of roads is the path to prosperity.
They have their housing mess, we have ours.

In all that, I think we can agree that following the means and methods of "the Market" is, by and for idiots -- whether .gov or the marketed masses?

Just saying that is a pretty convincing case you have made in that regard.


Quote:
All because someone had the bright idea that a bunch of make-work infrastructure and building projects could magically yield permanent economic health.
They did not/do not understand that WHAT you do tends to matter most.

Success is NOT a Just Do It -- whatever Do It is -- moronic Nike Commercial.

Something I heard when I first arrived in Texas is that Texas likes do-ers, not so much Thinkers. I usually just quip that I will "Think about Doing" when I hear that. But that George Bush level moronic thinking (no, not a political thing -- GW just tends to be an Icon Dummy), has infected America.

We cannot keep following the dictates of whims, greed and dumb -- and expect a good result.
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Old 06-21-2012, 08:39 AM
 
5,409 posts, read 10,331,858 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GregW View Post
We move most of our intercity passengers by air. Ever think of the value of high speed electric powered rail when airplane fuel is over $10 per gallon?

Of course.

The political interests of Boeing, various Fuel Corporations, Airlines and the FAA keep this dysfunctional, dirty, and noisy mess going.
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Old 06-21-2012, 08:56 AM
 
5,409 posts, read 10,331,858 times
Reputation: 4478
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lincolnian View Post
That's why my OP called for 21st Century infrastructure. It is not just roads. It's the power grid, natural gas lines, next-generation transportation systems, etc.

Theses variables are complementary and are interdependent with several other key business sectors. The multiplier effect is huge. And yes, it does include fixing existing roads that are in bad shape. Those are jobs that are essential to the lower-skilled workers that are currently having the most difficulty finding employment and have been on unemployment insurance the longest.

It's a win-win solution as it reduces social welfare costs while generating taxable income as well as expanding the business base.

It beats QE3, Twist and all the other smoke and mirror games being played with our money that has not resulted in any tangible products of lasting value or jobs for our American people.

Sure. BUT all that moves US towards:

1. Taking US off Oil, as the new transportation would not need it.

AND

2. Balancing Trade.

While I seem to get my posts deleted on here when I mention Exxon and sometimes Wal-Mart, do you follow who would be harmed by this?

Where we are is not an accident. Lot of effort put in to making US the mess we are.

The US has been intentionally mis-directed down a dead-end road to be pulled over, stabbed, and raped.

This is not some accident going on.
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Old 06-21-2012, 10:05 AM
 
28,900 posts, read 49,099,920 times
Reputation: 46320
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
A common misconception -- but do you actually understand Hawley Smoot? You understand I am not knocking you on that? A LOT of effort at mis-education has been put upon US by the CFR and other Globalist / US operations to not question the Global Plantation Nation.

A common claim by the Free Traders (which are of course only [Tax] Free [Corporate] Traders), is that Hawley Smoot helped cause the Depression. Since we are smart enough to use Cause Based Analysis, we can look back and see that the Great Depression was already well into play before HS. Cause must precede events . . . so that is a No Go.

AND Hawley Smoot was brought about when the US was a Net Exporter. You also follow that difference between then and now? Import Tariffs -- such as would be good for US, now, are Good for Net Importers. Have to be a little bit smarter than the tools used, here.

We can agree that the US is a Net Importer, correct? The trade accounts are so out of whack that we nearly eclipse the rest of the world in this regard. Have you seen the numbers?

For folks not familiar with this . . . here is a backgrounder.

Balance of trade - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

List of sovereign states by current account balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Dead Last of 192 countries.

Bottom line is that since the Rise of "Wealth-Without-Work-Reaganomics" our only true growth has been debt.

America has become a farce and a lie.




Just tax at the border (that Tariff thingy, again) and the numbers all balance. At the same time, by doing that we could eliminate all federal income tax on folks under $100K and come out much better.



"Has to"? Interesting choice of words, there. Are roughly 50% of his sales overseas?



Use small business subcontractors in the US. Is this really THAT hard to figure out?



And he still will not use US subcontractors?



Probably not. If he cannot figure this one out.



Sorry, but I deal with this in the Real World, too.

Most the business folks are bit . . . umm . . . lack-wit. Is that a kind enough term?



I usually give up on the folks that are sort "stuck in the problem."




Again, the direction of the aim matters (MUCH) more than the method. If the Feds were actually taking US off Oil by the Stimulus / Infrastructure -- we would have a new Golden Era.



They have their housing mess, we have ours.

In all that, I think we can agree that following the means and methods of "the Market" is, by and for idiots -- whether .gov or the marketed masses?

Just saying that is a pretty convincing case you have made in that regard.




They did not/do not understand that WHAT you do tends to matter most.

Success is NOT a Just Do It -- whatever Do It is -- moronic Nike Commercial.

Something I heard when I first arrived in Texas is that Texas likes do-ers, not so much Thinkers. I usually just quip that I will "Think about Doing" when I hear that. But that George Bush level moronic thinking (no, not a political thing -- GW just tends to be an Icon Dummy), has infected America.

We cannot keep following the dictates of whims, greed and dumb -- and expect a good result.
Nice long post with little substance.

Actually, it is more instructive to realize that the Great Depression did not start with the stock market crash of October, 1929. Yes, I know it's a convenient benchmark for lazy historians, but the Depression was already well underway, for the credit markets were already collapsing due to rural banks falling apart due to -- protectionism. So the stock market crash didn't signal the beginning of the Depression, but really was proof that it was well underway. In short a credit boom followed by a decisive credit bust. Add the fact that, due to new construction, housing inventory exceeded population by 25%, and you have some pretty spooky parallels to 2008.

For the legislation of the early 1920s designed to protect farmers wound up ruining farmers instead in a classic example of the Law of Unintended Consequences. In the early 20s, a bushel of wheat was typically sold for around a $1, due in large part to a healthy export market. By the time agriculture protection laws had run their course, after other countries had put retaliatory laws on their books that squashed American agricultural exports that same bushel of wheat sold for around 25¢, with the predictable results for farms and the rural bankers who financed them. To be sure, part of this effect was due to European farms going back into production in the wake of World War I, but that doesn't even begin to account for the problems that affected what was then 50% of the American population, the ones who lived in rural areas.

What's more, while you are fixated on the trade deficit, you ignore the much more important statistic of direct foreign investment in the United States, which totaled close to $328 Billion in 2008 and is looking to reach that same level in the next year -- particularly if the Euro and the Yuan tank. Such a development would pretty much slash the trade deficit. If you follow the arguments of Bastiat and Friedman, a budget deficit indicates a healthy economy, not an unhealthy one. Further, if you really care about the trade deficit so much, then you should support the development of domestic energy sources in this country rather than throw obstacles in its path, given how oil constitutes close to 40% of our current trade deficit.

Back to the topic at hand. Heck, in today's news, the Department of Energy's own report shows that $9,000,000,000 in Federal subsidies to renewable wind energy projects yielded a grand total of 910 jobs. Get out your calculator and that results in $9.8 million in government funds per job. Yet anyone who knows anything about economics, business, or government should not be terribly surprised by this number. They would have literally been better off handing a $100,000 check to 90,000 American households. Now that would have been a stimulus.

Last edited by cpg35223; 06-21-2012 at 10:13 AM..
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Old 06-21-2012, 05:19 PM
 
19,337 posts, read 16,935,945 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GregW View Post
We move most of our intercity passengers by air. Ever think of the value of high speed electric powered rail when airplane fuel is over $10 per gallon?

But we can't afford it, even as the real estate around it rises to the moon in price.
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Old 06-21-2012, 09:02 PM
 
12,798 posts, read 16,453,374 times
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Of course, this is getting off the subject, but though Smoot-Hawley, or Hawley-Smoot, didn't cause the Great Depression, but it was definitely bad legislation. It led to shrinking trade and commerce. And what about the role of Tariffs in the Civil war?
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Old 06-22-2012, 06:45 AM
 
Location: Metro Detroit, Michigan
17,972 posts, read 16,450,385 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pvande55 View Post
Of course, this is getting off the subject, but though Smoot-Hawley, or Hawley-Smoot, didn't cause the Great Depression, but it was definitely bad legislation. It led to shrinking trade and commerce. And what about the role of Tariffs in the Civil war?
Tariffs would only work if American consumers had the appetite for consumption. Today, they do not. Many of our products made in this country end up around the globe. Starting trade wars now would certainly hit them hard.
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