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Old 07-14-2012, 06:19 PM
 
Location: IN
22,191 posts, read 38,732,850 times
Reputation: 14797

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemlock140 View Post
With 10% unemployment rate 90% of people are working. While some areas are taking longer than others around here we see many companies hiring large numbers of people, new home developments starting up, and even new commercial buildings
going up. It's not like 2005 when there were 25 big cranes sticking up over the skyline, but there are half a dozen, and that's 6 more than 2008-2011.
That is not even the case, even if you are analyzing employment on a glass half full perspective. U6 unemployement is still elevated, on the order of many percentage points above the listed rate. Underemployement is an enormous problem that is being swept under the rug. Many people are having to work two jobs to keep their same income levels instead of the one they worked in the past. This isn't even factoring in the inflationary aspects of the past several years that include: food, energy, healthcare, and education costs that have rapidly outpaced income growth for the consumer. Either job growth will gradually increase or US population growth will dramatically slow as a lower percentage of the population can afford a dual income with a kid or kids. I have already analyzed all of the recent demographic trends and the middle class continues to move out of higher cost of living regions of the US into other cities that offer lower overall costs, but a "decent" job market.
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Old 07-14-2012, 06:26 PM
 
12,799 posts, read 16,463,600 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alphalogica View Post
No. Peak Oil is next.
True, Oil is too expensive in comparison to other fuels. Natural gas costs the moral equivalent of $2.00 per gallon. It is almost worth converting, in fact UPS has already converted some trucks. And oil production keeps going up. The price of oil has probably peaked, unlikely to peak again for many years.
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Old 07-14-2012, 06:31 PM
 
Location: IN
22,191 posts, read 38,732,850 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pvande55 View Post
True, Oil is too expensive in comparison to other fuels. Natural gas costs the moral equivalent of $2.00 per gallon. It is almost worth converting, in fact UPS has already converted some trucks. And oil production keeps going up. The price of oil has probably peaked, unlikely to peak again for many years.
And power plants are shifting to natural gas as the largest source of electricity production. The latest article stated that the percentage of electricity generated from coal has dropped to 35%.
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Old 07-14-2012, 07:19 PM
 
981 posts, read 2,201,785 times
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Exclamation If Peak Oil caused it, don't expect much relief

Quote:
Originally Posted by Veyron View Post
I haven't really been following the recession too much. I know about it but not the specifics and the latest information.

So will the economy ever come back or is this way of life here to stay?
Students of Peak Oil see this recession as unprecedented and very hard to reverse, short of some miracle energy replacement to match the scale of crude oil. Its cause goes much deeper than financial irresponsibility. Physical resources have always underlain money. Most recessions were preceded by energy shocks, but this one includes a global, physical oil supply shortfall. World oil production peaked in 2006, per the conservative IEA, which had long been hesitant to acknowledge what graphs showed.

"Peak Oil" means that the cheapest-to-extract oil is gone, not that oil has physically run out. It also means we can't pretend marginal sources like tar sands and shale are the equivalent of free-flowing crude. Those sources were already included in the peak curve.

The fundamental problem is the long-standing assumption of perpetual economic growth to pay off credit debt (fiat money) which demands endless cheap energy, which is declining in terms of petroleum (the most versatile energy source). And on top of that, the population keeps growing by 75-80 million people each year, all demanding their share of the world's bling. Economists keep saying "job creation barely kept up with population growth" but it's never made sense that either could grow forever. The benchmark is unrealistic.

No net energy growth means no sustained economic growth, and on a finite planet endless growth of any kind is mathematically impossible. Notice how oil spikes whenever the economy tries to return to its glory days, then demand falls off and oil prices drop. At this moment we are in that drop-off phase, but oil will spike again, and so on.

Mass denial is a common reaction to all this, of course. "Where's our God-given growth?!"

good interview/article on the topic

Quote from above link: The US has experienced six recessions since 1972. At least five of these were associated with oil prices. In every case, when oil consumption in the US reached 4% percent of GDP, the US went into recession. Right now, 4% of GDP is $80 oil. So that’s my current view: If the oil price exceeds $80, then expect the US to fall back into recession.

Last edited by ca_north; 07-14-2012 at 07:34 PM..
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Old 07-15-2012, 05:18 PM
 
12,799 posts, read 16,463,600 times
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Economic growth, which is imperative to bring back the much needed jobs and more to accommodate the growing workforce, depends less and less on energy. The energy-intensive industries have left the U.S., in fact the world. Less than 10% of the workforce is in manufacturing, the heaviest energy user.
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Old 07-15-2012, 05:37 PM
 
Location: Bay Area
1,663 posts, read 2,459,200 times
Reputation: 1031
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donn2390 View Post
No one will ever compromise with a communist. You are watching the rebirth of Hitler and are to blind to watch it happen right before your eyes...
Fortunately for the sheep who blindly follow the corrupt leader to the destruction of our country, We will save you all in November...
If you believe what you say, you have no clue about politics, find a new hobby because you suck at this one...
you are truly frightening.
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Old 07-16-2012, 06:41 AM
 
12,799 posts, read 16,463,600 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donn2390 View Post
No one will ever compromise with a communist. You are watching the rebirth of Hitler and are to blind to watch it happen right before your eyes...
Fortunately for the sheep who blindly follow the corrupt leader to the destruction of our country, We will save you all in November...
If you believe what you say, you have no clue about politics, find a new hobby because you suck at this one...
Indeed, Hitler's Nazis got elected because about half of tradesmen were out of work. After they took power they started building the Autobahns, which put them all to work. If you wonder why Germans at the time cheerfully cried out "Heil Hitler," now you know. BTW, Hitler, who was such a car nut (excuse me, automobile enthusiast) never had a driver's license.
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Old 07-16-2012, 02:12 PM
 
Location: Palo Alto
12,152 posts, read 7,552,563 times
Reputation: 4178
Of course it will. Economic cycles are as old as mankind.
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Old 07-16-2012, 02:32 PM
 
Location: Ontario, NY
3,058 posts, read 6,779,142 times
Reputation: 3310
Quote:
Originally Posted by pvande55 View Post
BTW, Hitler, who was such a car nut (excuse me, automobile enthusiast) never had a driver's license.
I would love to see a Police officer brave enough to pull Hilter over and issue his a ticket for driving without a license.
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Old 07-17-2012, 10:15 PM
 
48,508 posts, read 88,499,335 times
Reputation: 18187
It will come back but it will be much changed just as happened in the 70's recession.
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