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Old 07-19-2012, 05:41 AM
 
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I think we still have not reached the new normal in our economic situation. Outsourcing, downsizing, service economy, fed printing money, low interest rates, etc...we just don't produce enough good jobs anymore.
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Old 07-21-2012, 03:24 PM
 
Location: IN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by totsuka View Post
I think we still have not reached the new normal in our economic situation. Outsourcing, downsizing, service economy, fed printing money, low interest rates, etc...we just don't produce enough good jobs anymore.
The Fed is doing a severe diservice to those people not invested in the stock market, and dependent on interest from savings. With interest rates near 0% this is an idiotic policy.
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Old 07-21-2012, 03:55 PM
 
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Yes but it will be a different economy.

I'm positive that we're heading toward what's referred to as an hourglass economy. There will be more high end, well payed, and well taken care of employees but even more poorly paid and inconsistent low wage work. The middle class will be the minority.
No more average joes living sold middle class lives (unless you get government work).
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Old 07-21-2012, 04:17 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wawaweewa View Post
Yes but it will be a different economy.

I'm positive that we're heading toward what's referred to as an hourglass economy. There will be more high end, well paid, and well taken care of employees but even more poorly paid and inconsistent low wage work. The middle class will be the minority.
No more average joes living sold middle class lives (unless you get government work).
We're already there, aren't we?

I think we could reverse some of the middle class decline if we didn't have such high out of wedlock and divorce rates. Even the liberal New York Times is starting to agree:

Two Classes, Divided by 'I Do'


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/us...?_r=1&emc=eta1

From the article:

Robert Lerman of the Urban Institute, comparing lower-middle- and upper-middle-income families, found that single parenthood explained about 40 percent of inequality’s growth. “That’s not peanuts,” he said.
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Old 07-22-2012, 09:45 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
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I think we'll continue to bumble along for quite a while with little to no growth and perhaps even recession. Both Europe and the US still have major underlying structural problems to address.

Hopefully we'll get back on a track towards a healthier economy by the end of the decade...one not ridden with cheap credit and debt.
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Old 07-23-2012, 07:20 PM
 
Location: IN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90 View Post
I think we'll continue to bumble along for quite a while with little to no growth and perhaps even recession. Both Europe and the US still have major underlying structural problems to address.

Hopefully we'll get back on a track towards a healthier economy by the end of the decade...one not ridden with cheap credit and debt.
By the end of this decade I think their will be an even starker contrast regarding the states that are performing decently and adding jobs compared to the ones that aren't. Younger people are moving and following the jobs. Those states that can't retain younger talent will definitely stagnate or decline unless they address the structural problems they have in more abundance.
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Old 07-23-2012, 09:46 PM
 
Location: US Empire, Pac NW
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History is replete with turning points and the housing crash was one of them.

In fact, if you want other examples of crashes in American history, take a look at the "Panics" of the 1800s. Some estimate that the "Panic of 1873" was the second worse economic crisis in this nation, and much of it was fuelled by speculation on land and overexpansion of railroads and a collapse in corn and wheat prices.

In fact, prior to 1929, the Panic of 1873 was called the Great Depression, and afterwards, was called the Long Depression.

I would rank our current depression to be no worse than that Panic.

Further, this country's population is still growing, which fuels demand for services, and unless you haven't noticed, wages haven't kept pace or so it seems because we keep buying crap we don't need. Also, our divorce rate isn't helping (single parentage is a SIGNIFICANT cause of home poverty).

But we won't suffer indefinitely. To assume such means you assume that technological progress is ceasing and the population is stopping and such. Which is not correct at all.
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Old 07-24-2012, 12:10 AM
 
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No. Things will never return to the way they were. Technology & outsourcing have made our unemployment high and it isn't going away anytime soon. In the next few decades most jobs will be utterly replaced by machines. The only "jobs" left will be thieves attempting to swindle off of each other such as financial institutions, banks, etc...
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Old 07-27-2012, 07:49 PM
 
Location: US Empire, Pac NW
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason28 View Post
No. Things will never return to the way they were. Technology & outsourcing have made our unemployment high and it isn't going away anytime soon. In the next few decades most jobs will be utterly replaced by machines. The only "jobs" left will be thieves attempting to swindle off of each other such as financial institutions, banks, etc...
There's over 600,000 jobs out there now, waiting for Americans to take them.

Only thing is - there aren't any experienced or qualified people to take them.

A lot of CNC machinists, computer maintenance, robot maintenance, etc. that requires basic math skills. Well guess what our schools AREN'T preparing people for.

The new economy will be dominated by people who have the ability to maintain the robots, to understand the 3D drawings the engineers give them and be able to spot flaws in translating the drawings to cutting instructions determined by the program, etc.

Technology and outsourcing are two things that go hand in hand. An increase in technological prowess yields bigger productivity and causes the labor-dominant industries to look for cheaper labor markets. Then eventually the economy turns full circle, and more jobs are at home. This continues until the next tech boom.

We are in the jobs-coming-back-home cycle now. One need look no further than many many companies who have actually closed shops overseas for various reasons (i.e. labor in China no longer cheap, intellectual property rights not being followed, etc). Google it.
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Old 07-27-2012, 08:17 PM
 
27,965 posts, read 36,030,059 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eskercurve View Post
There's over 600,000 jobs out there now, waiting for Americans to take them.
The last JOLTS news report says:
Quote:
Construction.....| 100,000
Manufacturing....| 227,000
Trade, transportation, and utilities(2)....| 513,000
Retail trade....| 303,000
Professional and business services........| 626,000
Education and health services (3)........| 575,000
Education andhealth ser-vices3........| 575,000
Leisure and hospitality.....| 301,000
Arts, entertainment and recreation.....| 33,000
Accommodation and food services.....| 268,000
Government(4).....| 303,000
State and local government......| 257,000
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey News Release
Quote:
Originally Posted by eskercurve View Post
Technology and outsourcing are two things that go hand in hand. An increase in technological prowess yields bigger productivity and causes the labor-dominant industries to look for cheaper labor markets. Then eventually the economy turns full circle, and more jobs are at home. This continues until the next tech boom.
This time it's global and China isn't the only game in town. You have SE Asia, Central Eurasia, MENA, India, S. America, Southern Africa, etc.

It's virtually an unlimited supply of cheap labor for a very long time.

For the next few decades you will see large increases of pressure on resources which will cause increases in the COL and the loss of disposable income for countries that were formerly on top i.e. the West.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eskercurve View Post
We are in the jobs-coming-back-home cycle now. One need look no further than many many companies who have actually closed shops overseas for various reasons (i.e. labor in China no longer cheap, intellectual property rights not being followed, etc). Google it.
Jobs might ebb and flow in some manner but it will never come back in the manner that I think you're referring to. The pressures on resources are unrelenting and will be for a very long time with the only exception being a major catastrophe like an X-class solar flare taking out large sections of the industrialized world, a world war or some combination of both.
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