"The U.S. Housing Bust is Over" - WSJ (cost, 200k)

[ChiGuy2.5]

Originally Posted by Willy702

Where is it? Many markets would sure like an opportunity to get access to it. The shadow market is theoretical and gets overstated and understated regularly based on one's persuasion. Demand is still lacking because so many buyers remain scared after the bust, but sentiment is a very fickle thing and all those renters now seeing near double digit increases annually could quickly become interested in buying. If they buy and values go up at all, pre-foreclosures could turn into non issues and many who might have walked away might work to stay in their homes.

Massive amounts of shadow inventory primarily exists in sprawling suburban cities which were all direct beneficiaries of the 2006 boom. You just may not notice it due to the fact that the banks try to keep it hush hush to prevent people from noticing any increase in supply. Smaller, older towns were not as affected. I can only speak to Illinois, but we definitely have a large amount of shadow inventory.

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by bbnetworking

I think it's bottom if the interest rates at this low forever, which we all know it's not gonna happen.

If the interest rate goes up same rate as inflation, then i think we won't see price decreases or increases.

People have to have jobs and credit to buy houses. Ain't happening yet.

[modeerf]

Originally Posted by liquidicevapor

The folks over at WSJ are showing their true colors. This article is most likely another attempt to drum up some consumer confidence and boost home sales. The evidence they site barely supports their own conclusion.

1. A single month's uptick in the Case-Shiller Index does not mean a recovery.
2. "The stock of newly built homes is back to 2005 levels." so they're still overbuilt?
3. Wells Fargo: "Overall economy slowing" yet "budding housing recovery." How does that work?
4. "Housing still far from healthy...." Yes, everything in this paragraph confirms that but regardless "rising home prices" will still keep the heart beating?

Every 'expert' quote has been spun to meet the conclusions of this article. There is nothing of substance to back up any of these claims and yet the article ends stating the bust is over.

Thoughts?

Over? With 3 million more foreclosure's this year?

They must be reading Zilla's BS stats.

The bottom won't be seen for another 5 yrs.

[GraniteStater]

Lots of Foreclosures and short sales are selling quickly with standard sales going for less than list price in NH. We didn't have much of a building boom but an asset fueled bubble as prices rose much faster than median household incomes could support. Prices have continually trended downward over the last several years. Property taxes are a bigger deal in NH as we depend more on property taxes to run entire cities and towns as we don't have a state income or sales tax. Property taxes on a house valued at $200-250K often run $6-7K in annual taxes in many towns in the southern half of the state. In the rurla areas it is less than half of that.

[texdav]

I thinik i most parts of the counttry that housing which has not reallt been growig for four eyars to nay extent is startig to become short.The problem is that with so mnay not wanting the home foreclose because of condition mostlky investortsd are buyig those not wanted and people are startig to buy new instead.Then we alos see rents are incrasing ans short si til i mnay areas. We are not by put rpose goig to resume the housig boom of the pre-2008. The aim is to get back to more n hisdtorical level of 655 of homeowenrship. So if you judge by the recent past your not goig to see thsoe days again.

[Bideshi]

Originally Posted by texdav

I thinik i most parts of the counttry that housing which has not reallt been growig for four eyars to nay extent is startig to become short.The problem is that with so mnay not wanting the home foreclose because of condition mostlky investortsd are buyig those not wanted and people are startig to buy new instead.Then we alos see rents are incrasing ans short si til i mnay areas. We are not by put rpose goig to resume the housig boom of the pre-2008. The aim is to get back to more n hisdtorical level of 655 of homeowenrship. So if you judge by the recent past your not goig to see thsoe days again.

The cost of building vs buying has come much closer together. It might make more sense to build now. Most "affordable" houses on the market need a lot of work.

[AlfredB1979]

Originally Posted by Bideshi

People have to have jobs and credit to buy houses. Ain't happening yet.

True enough. With GM selling cars to anyone with a pulse these days, it's sorta' dicey, no? Yep.


GM Ramps Up Risky Subprime Auto Loans To Drive Sales; Taxpayers Still Own 26.5% - Investors.com


I guess that economy built on selling cars and pestering folks to buy houses wasn't all that it's cracked up to be. I swear that's crossed my mind before...

[ducviloxi]

Originally Posted by Wartrace

Using Nashville as an example - Current "median home value" 160,000 dollars. Current median household income 48,000. Do the math.

Here in Southern California we would be lucky to have that kind of ratio. For example for Irvine, California:

Median home price: $589,000 (2011)
Median Income: $107,546 (2011)

[Marv101]

Folks throughout Texas and most of the nation's midsection have been wondering for several years running what all the hullabaloo is about regarding a housing crash; no major city in the Lone Star State suffered a housing crazh a la SoCal, vegas or Phoenix, and the key reason was that zoning restrictions in texas are non existent, which is why a $200K house in Houston would cost 3-5 times that in large parts of California due to environmental obstructionism, as well as those 'slow growth' or 'smart growth' imbeciles.

[myrc60]

Originally Posted by Marv101

Folks throughout Texas and most of the nation's midsection have been wondering for several years running what all the hullabaloo is about regarding a housing crash; no major city in the Lone Star State suffered a housing crazh a la SoCal, vegas or Phoenix, and the key reason was that zoning restrictions in texas are non existent, which is why a $200K house in Houston would cost 3-5 times that in large parts of California due to environmental obstructionism, as well as those 'slow growth' or 'smart growth' imbeciles.

Yes, restrictions. That is part of why the business sector isn't expanding and only contracting. Go EPA! Eventually those in power will stop all growth in this country by over extending their reach where it doesn't belong and ignoring areas where they really could be making a difference...natural gas over petrol.