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Old 09-20-2012, 08:44 AM
 
Location: NC
6,032 posts, read 8,746,191 times
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What are your potential Black Swan indicators for a potential collapse?

" What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives."
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Old 09-22-2012, 08:04 PM
 
Location: Nebraska
2,235 posts, read 3,012,293 times
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By the definition that I know a "Black Swan event" is one that is completely unexpected. So no one on this forum should be able to envision it.

Now, if what you meant was what seemingly insignificant event could trigger a financial collapse then I could think of a few.

If Bernanke did a press conference, and said that he expects gold to go much higher in the near future then I would know that it's time.

If I was listening to the Dennis Miller radio show and he was interviewing Liz Claman from Fox business channel and she said that she was talking to a US Senator that just came out of a closed door meeting with Bernanke and the senator said that he was not scared before the meeting but he was now. (true story from Thursday)

If I read a small story in the USA Today newspaper that said the charge card companies have reported high usage and topping out of a unusual number of cards in the Washington DC area.

When treasuries have to be offered at higher interest rates then collapse is close.

If sporting goods shops started to report problems keeping the shelves stocked.

These are just some of the possibilities.
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Old 09-22-2012, 08:31 PM
 
12,918 posts, read 17,699,928 times
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Among the predictions nobody is making:

Labor shortages pandemic. Companies report being unable to fill orders due to lack of help.

Energy glut causes huge losses by oil companies. Gas stations closing nationwide due to lack of demand.

20% of hospitals expected to close due to outbreak of healthy living.

Record low turnout in Congressional election due to general voter satisfaction with incumbents.
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Old 09-24-2012, 08:42 AM
 
706 posts, read 1,247,028 times
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If I was listening to the Dennis Miller radio show and he was interviewing Liz Claman from Fox business channel and she said that she was talking to a US Senator that just came out of a closed door meeting with Bernanke and the senator said that he was not scared before the meeting but he was now. (true story from Thursday)

I believe this to be true. We may have crossed a line. We have to cut spending but the resultant impact will be negative in the real economy-layoffs, reduced revenues etc. We can raise taxes but the resultant impact on the real economy will be negative, reduced spending etc. In a consumer based economy increased taxes/reduced spending is disastrous.

That said Bernanke should face the music now. We have to go thru a painful period similiar to a surgery. Bernanke's policies are simply administering morphine. They may make you feel better for a while but you are not solving the problem. This is all kicking the can.
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Old 09-24-2012, 07:34 PM
 
12,918 posts, read 17,699,928 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmyP View Post
If I was listening to the Dennis Miller radio show and he was interviewing Liz Claman from Fox business channel and she said that she was talking to a US Senator that just came out of a closed door meeting with Bernanke and the senator said that he was not scared before the meeting but he was now. (true story from Thursday)

I believe this to be true. We may have crossed a line. We have to cut spending but the resultant impact will be negative in the real economy-layoffs, reduced revenues etc. We can raise taxes but the resultant impact on the real economy will be negative, reduced spending etc. In a consumer based economy increased taxes/reduced spending is disastrous.

That said Bernanke should face the music now. We have to go thru a painful period similiar to a surgery. Bernanke's policies are simply administering morphine. They may make you feel better for a while but you are not solving the problem. This is all kicking the can.
Havent we been through enough hell already? Depression lasting four years, many out of work for over three. Depression that started here spreading to other countries. Will it take a world war to pull us out?
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Old 09-24-2012, 08:51 PM
 
982 posts, read 1,547,007 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pvande55 View Post
Havent we been through enough hell already? Depression lasting four years, many out of work for over three. Depression that started here spreading to other countries. Will it take a world war to pull us out?
I truly do not understand why people equate war with recovery. The only reason the US fared so well after world war II was that the devastation wrought upon Europe was not experienced here. None of the European economies were better off after the war. They were significantly depressed by it. Furthermore, a modern world war would likely result in everyone dying from nuclear war and the ensuing nuclear winter. The very last thing you should hope for is another world war because you and all of the people you care for would die and die miserably. And that would be it for humanity.

Regardless, this isn't over by a long shot. The worst has yet to come.
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Old 09-24-2012, 09:38 PM
Status: "Smash Communism" (set 7 days ago)
 
Location: Metro Detroit, Michigan
24,333 posts, read 20,151,499 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BadJuju View Post
I truly do not understand why people equate war with recovery. The only reason the US fared so well after world war II was that the devastation wrought upon Europe was not experienced here. None of the European economies were better off after the war. They were significantly depressed by it. Furthermore, a modern world war would likely result in everyone dying from nuclear war and the ensuing nuclear winter. The very last thing you should hope for is another world war because you and all of the people you care for would die and die miserably. And that would be it for humanity.

Regardless, this isn't over by a long shot. The worst has yet to come.
It wasn't so much about the devastation as one other thing... Since available labor during the war was scarce, manufacturing wages took a big leap. This caused the wage structure to shift upward, and more wealth to be transferred to the middle class. That certainly didn't hurt. Too bad the effects only lasted till about the 80's, when wages stagnated and the middle class went on a big loosing streak. The middle class was the underdog then, and they are facing elimination today. Will be interesting to see what happens next. Time to grab some popcorn...

Occupukes, class warfare and false messiahs, oh my!
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Old 09-25-2012, 07:32 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles area
14,016 posts, read 19,946,834 times
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Default Hyperbole

Quote:
Originally Posted by pvande55 View Post
Havent we been through enough hell already? Depression lasting four years, many out of work for over three. Depression that started here spreading to other countries. Will it take a world war to pull us out?
Aren't things bad enough without resorting to hyperbole to make them appear even worse? You must know that we have suffered a recession, not a depression. If we were to have a real depression, then what would you call it? You would have run out of language. It's like calling a hill a mountain. Then when you get to a real mountain you call it a cliff. Then when you get to a real cliff, there are no more words left to describe it.
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Old 09-25-2012, 07:36 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles area
14,016 posts, read 19,946,834 times
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Default Source of quote, please?

To the OP: You started with a quote, or at the very least you used quotation marks. It is considered standard practice to cite the person who stated it, together with the book or newspaper or other media source. I would be interested in that information.
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Old 09-25-2012, 06:25 PM
 
12,918 posts, read 17,699,928 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
Aren't things bad enough without resorting to hyperbole to make them appear even worse? You must know that we have suffered a recession, not a depression. If we were to have a real depression, then what would you call it? You would have run out of language. It's like calling a hill a mountain. Then when you get to a real mountain you call it a cliff. Then when you get to a real cliff, there are no more words left to describe it.
Sounds like someone who wasn't even out of work six months! I read an article by some reporter: "Isn't an extended period of high unemployment a depression?" "Not if you're Ben Bernanke. Then it's a recovery." At least Bernanke is doing more about than Congress. Heck, a trained monkey could do a better job. If he even needed to be trained.

Last edited by pvande55; 09-25-2012 at 06:26 PM.. Reason: Speling
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