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Old 02-16-2013, 05:42 PM
 
621 posts, read 594,853 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by french paris View Post
I hope it for you but i am quite pessimist for US and Europa.
Me too.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
...

Quote:
Originally Posted by pie_row View Post
Short term only. But it will get us full employment. With full employment, and the income to tax, then we can grow our economy in a direction that will return us to long term economic health.
No, you can't.

Look at your GDP growth....

2001-2010 1.68%
1991-2010 2.55%
1981-2010 2.79%
1971-2010 2.89%
1961-2010 3.16%

1961-1970 4.22%

1971-1980 3.21%
1981-1990 3.27%
1991-2000 3.41%
2001-2010. 1.68%

Average 2.89%

When a State first starts electromechanical industrialization, GDP increases. It is not unusual to see annual GDP growth of 8%-10%, or even 12%.

But once the process of electromechanical industrialization is finished, GDP no longer increases at such high rates.
There are several ways to measure GDP in dollars and in inflation adjusted dollars. In inflation adjusted dollars you are very correct. But as measured in actual dollars you can run a very high inflation rate and get non inflation adjusted GDP growth of 100% a day. That is with 100% a day hyperinflation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post

...

No, it doesn't work that way. Real Inflation in the US is insignificant.
Not even with QE infinity. We are printing huge amounts of money and getting nowhere with it because there isn't equity in houses to loan against. Now the counter argument against upping the minimum wage as far as I've been talking about is that it will cause inflation. The Fed can't print enough money to get inflation. But that along with the minimum wage law can get inflation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post

Since the US left the Gold Standard, Real Inflation has averaged 3% or less. That's outstanding and only 2 countries on Earth have performed better than the US --- Switzerland and some sultanate out in the South Pacific (I can never remember the name).

Cost Inflation? Yeah, lot of that going round, and depending on the commodity, it's approaching 90%, but the government has nothing to do with Cost Inflation --- that's all on you.

You cause Cost Inflation to happen. Really there is no such thing as Cost Inflation. That's just a special term I use here on C-D because the majority of people are too dumb to understand Inflation. Cost Inflation is a melding of Cost-push Inflation and Demand-pull Inflation.

Those have absolutely nothing to do with monetary systems and everything do with Supply & Demand issues.
Hmm. The price of oil tracks the world's monetary base relative to its population growth nicely over the last decade and a bit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post

Food prices and gasoline prices are rising due to Cost Inflation --- if you want it to stop, you have two choices: produce more or consume less.....like I said, that's on you, and what you need to produce more of is corn.
The world's monetary base went from $3 trillion to $10 trillion that growth relative to the population growth over the same time matches nicely with the price change in gasoline.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post

I suppose you could argue the government is partially responsible.
Not the government but the world's central bankers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
EPA regulations bar new entrants to agriculture, and FDA regulations hamper small and family farmers, causing corn production to stagnate (or decline as they have the last several years) and then EPA fuel standards like Tier 3 reducing Sulfur from 30 ppm (under Tier 2) to 10 ppm drives up the price of gasoline.

But none of that has to do with the Federal Reserve.
Not the Fed but with the other central banks that printed money to buy debt with in the US that was used to finance the housing bubble that started to pop in 2007 ish.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post

Fiscally...


Mircea
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Old 02-16-2013, 06:30 PM
 
12,798 posts, read 16,447,730 times
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Notice the first step is fire all the politicians and start over. Theoretically the US voters can do so but in most cases are so hoodwinked by their own politicians they get re-elected.
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Old 02-17-2013, 03:26 PM
 
Location: Ohio
22,798 posts, read 15,928,648 times
Reputation: 19273
Quote:
Originally Posted by pie_row View Post
There are several ways to measure GDP in dollars and in inflation adjusted dollars. In inflation adjusted dollars you are very correct. But as measured in actual dollars you can run a very high inflation rate and get non inflation adjusted GDP growth of 100% a day. That is with 100% a day hyperinflation.
Not even with QE infinity. We are printing huge amounts of money and getting nowhere with it because there isn't equity in houses to loan against. Now the counter argument against upping the minimum wage as far as I've been talking about is that it will cause inflation. The Fed can't print enough money to get inflation. But that along with the minimum wage law can get inflation.
Hmm. The price of oil tracks the world's monetary base relative to its population growth nicely over the last decade and a bit.
The world's monetary base went from $3 trillion to $10 trillion that growth relative to the population growth over the same time matches nicely with the price change in gasoline.
Not the government but the world's central bankers.
Not the Fed but with the other central banks that printed money to buy debt with in the US that was used to finance the housing bubble that started to pop in 2007 ish.
And what flavor Kool-Aid is that?

I'm guessing crackpotwebsite.com forgot to mention the change in the US monetary base in 2012 was a whopping 0.2%.

Monetarily....


Mircea
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Old 02-17-2013, 03:41 PM
 
28,900 posts, read 49,086,984 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pawporri View Post
The US should takes notes on how Iceland beat the problem
we are facing today. The whole scheme foisted on America
was developed there and then used here.

Failing Economies Take Note: Iceland's Silent Revolution May Hold the Solution to Financial Woes | Wake Up World
Iceland's GDP is 25% that of Birmingham, Alabama. Not exactly sure how any sapient person could advocate nationalizing banks, forgiving debts, and defaulting for a country of 310,000,000 people.
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Old 02-17-2013, 04:02 PM
 
Location: Someplace Wonderful
5,178 posts, read 4,168,551 times
Reputation: 2568
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
So you think Americans ought to squander their resources and their labor and their time amd every discretionary penny to the highest possible degree, in order to achieve the ultimate virtue of civilization, Jobs?
I have heard a fair share of right wing ideologues blame the mortgage meltdown on Government forcing lenders to make bad loans, (which of course, led to the prosperity we had during the Bush era, which those same people were crowing about). Why dont we take a page from Barney Frank, and force businesses to hire employees? After all, if it worked for mortgages lending it should work even better for business employment. Once people have jobs, they will spend, creating demand-pull on the economy and economic growth will skyrocket and the problem will have been solved!



Betcha if Obama heard the idea he'd exclaim "Now why didn't I think of that?!?
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Old 02-17-2013, 04:10 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,661 posts, read 78,396,225 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckmann View Post
Why dont we take a page from Barney Frank, and force businesses to hire employees?
Actually, there is a way to do that. Just raise or lower the capital gains tax according to the unemployment rate. If unemployment goes down, capital gains tax rates go down. That would encourage and reward investors to put their money into corporations that actually hire people, and withhold their investments on companies that don't. And then earmark the capital gains taxes to pay assistance and benefits to the unemployed.
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Old 02-17-2013, 04:18 PM
 
Location: Someplace Wonderful
5,178 posts, read 4,168,551 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
gasoline prices are rising due to Cost Inflation ---
I disagree. The recent run up in oil prices is due entirely to the Goldman Sachs trading desk, just as the run up from Jan 2007 through Nov 2008 was due to Goldman speculation.

If whomever is regulating the commodities markets were to require 100% margin on oil futures contracts (except for real buyers, meaning refineries for the most part) the price of oil and gasoline would fall to their natural market levels.

That would not stop the speculators from bidding up the prices on some other commodity, but one devil at a time.

As for the topic, I agree with those who state that what Iceland does is irrelevant. Tiny population. Tiny usable land area. Volcanoes and geothermal for heat. Lots of rivers and snow melt for hydro (something the anti-energy enviro people here in California have fought against for decades, forcing us into other dirtier means for generating electricity). Iceland is a special case, fun to read about, but essentially irrelevant in the European economy, let alone the world economy, and therefore able to get away with things would would cause major super depression worldwide is the US were to do it.
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Old 02-17-2013, 04:24 PM
 
Location: Someplace Wonderful
5,178 posts, read 4,168,551 times
Reputation: 2568
Quote:
Originally Posted by jtur88 View Post
Actually, there is a way to do that. Just raise or lower the capital gains tax according to the unemployment rate. If unemployment goes down, capital gains tax rates go down. That would encourage and reward investors to put their money into corporations that actually hire people, and withhold their investments on companies that don't. And then earmark the capital gains taxes to pay assistance and benefits to the unemployed.
First of all, I agree completely that one of the biggest keys to recovery is to lower capital gains on new investment and on businesses. (not on paper investment like gains on stocks and bonds, but that is a minor argument.)

Regarding your tying of capital gains to the unemployment rate, does that mean that capital gains rates are to be raised when unemployment climbs? Wouldnt that lead to a negative feedback loop? Maybe something like tinkering with the capital gains rate along the lines of the Fed tinkering with interest rates might be worth considering?

I know this is off topic. Maybe there is another more appropriate thread where this is being discussed.
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Old 02-17-2013, 04:54 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,661 posts, read 78,396,225 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckmann View Post

I know this is off topic. Maybe there is another more appropriate thread where this is being discussed.
I think I raised exactly this point in a separate thread about a year ago, and it died almost without comment.

Yes, conversely if the unemployment rate went up, capital gains taxes would rise. Companies, in order to maintain their share values, would have to promise to invest in job creation, present some credibility that they actually would, and fulfill that promise. Investors would reward that, employment would rise, and tax benefits would be reaped.
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Old 02-18-2013, 04:46 AM
 
621 posts, read 594,853 times
Reputation: 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post

t to mention the change in the US monetary base in 2012 was a whopping 0.2%.



Quote:
Originally Posted by pie_row View Post
world's monetary base went from $3 trillion to $10 trillion

Thank you for using the net change in US monetary base to refute my net change in world's monetary base argument.


What flavor of cool-aid is it that you use?
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