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They are talking about a oil crisis in a few years that will make the gasoline lines of the 1970s look like a picnic. Due to mega growth in the developing world, China and India have bought most of the world's oil. Terror attacks have cut off most of the oil from the Middle East. The War with Iran, started by Bush shortly before he was to leave office, is still going on. The cost for gasoline in America is $9.00 a gallon. Only the elites drive. Most of us are either unemployed or working in pick up day labor type jobs. Our wages due to global competition, are now closer to third world levels. We are in a economic depression.
The mortgage crisis has continued when most banks lost so much money that they were not able to give mortgages any more. The only mortgages available now are for elites and require a 20% down payment. Millions of homes stand empty and abandoned due to mass foreclosures. Many have been taken over (informally) by the illegal aliens who can't find a job after the government finally cracked down and the economy crashed and white people started working in fast food again.
No... I agree that with the modernization of China and India we will be in a really bad position in terms of oil. We are trying to find alternative sources for energy and it is going slow for various reasons but we won't be in a depression. Ending corruption in the government with be PIVOTAL if we want to turn our economy around. If we don't and there is a good chance things are going to get worse before they get better. Problems with overspending and spending in areas that have no benefits in America is a major problem. If we do the right thing, we still have a bright future. America can probably survive 20-30 more years before change is absolutely mandatory... PAINFUL change, if it isn't done now when its ripe for change.
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
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Nah.
Nah.
Even though I truly believe 2008 and 2009 is going to suck for us economically as a nation. We're not going to get into the nightmare scenario you posted.
with the housing debacle:
At about 2010 we should bottom out in the worst markets. The recovery start 2 years later. Granted this is all guess work by me. But alot of these so called experts everybody listen to are also guessing . they can be just as wrong as anyone else. And of recent they have been really wrong.
With the fuel and cars:
Look if we have to we have the largest shale oil reserves in the country, largest coal that can be liquefied for diesel, and there's always bio diesel. Of course these are only short term solution. Maybe if gas goes to $5.00 a gallon on the east coast. Maybe.......Just Maybe we might actually get serious about renewable energy sources.
The Government is the source of all economic problems. They ignore the people, give the control over money to a handful or crooks, and spend money created out of nothing. If we can reduce Government by at least 50% the next step is to reduce personal debt. I am looking forward to an oil crisis as it will slow down globilazation and unless we end up in civil war, reduce the need to send our citizens all over the world to fight and/or die. Remember without us to consume the goods, who will China sell to? If the USA fails, the rest of the world goes with us.
Too short a timeline. This is not likely to happen if at all, and especially not that quickly. The economy of China and India will both continue to improve. However, they are not as likely to widely adopt our passion for driving. India will continue on the internet track and China will adopt a rail system for long distance. Their urban workers will upgrade to small electric vehicles the country's electric grid powered by nuclear plants.
You're right about major adjustments in the US. I forsee a return to the one car to a family policy of the 50's and public transportation in urban areas. This will mean that real estate must drop in price making it affordable to single worker families. The Japanese will come out with a line of mini cars that will asuage the oil problem and which people will buy because of the price of gasoline.
People will work locally and small cities will resurge. Many more will telecommute. Families will double up in housing as they use to in order to pay the mortgage on a decreasingly valued house. Others will fix up older stock and live in it themselves. We will need to import more legal immigrants, educated ones, who can pay taxes to support our bulge of elders and these people will buy up the remaining homes. Those Americans who don't think it's important to excel in school may well be vying on the street corner for day jobs unless they train for an in demand trade.
The Middle East will lose influence brought from oil revenues. Most of that money only went to their elites anyway, and the people there will revolt against their own leaders.
You forgot, all major southern and west coast cities will have to limit their growth due to lack of water, at least until desalinization comes into play.
The answers to the oil squeeze are obvious but there are too many special interests in the way to allow solutions to be implemented. It is just supply and demand issues for the short term (long term a better, probably electric, transportation infrastructure is needed).
There is plenty of oil in the US but drilling is severely restricted. Responsible exploration in Alaska, the gulf and on continental shelf areas can produce enough to substantially reduce dependence on foreign oil. Additional supplies will ease price escalation. Even if we all started walking to work we still need this oil for air travel, truck traffic, and our military.
Although economics, site issues, and long term uncertainties will probably keep new refineries from being constructed the obstacles to expanding existing refineries can be reduced. Higher fuel margins will fund the expansion.
Reducing the demand for fuel at the consumer level in the short term will have to come from higher retail prices. Although it would be counterproductive for the government to do anything to lower prices they could provide incentives to use mass transit and increase ride sharing, van pools, etc. Longer term there will be a move to smaller cars, more diesels, better hybrids, and finally an electric infrastructure.
The whole issue is not now and never was a doomsday problem. It is only the stupid partisan politics, unreasonable environmental strategies, and lack of leadership that make it look hopeless.
Holy crap - that future scenario surely was depressing and of course it seemed to ring with some truthfulness to it. I hope that doesn't happen... I do think there are things we cannot control such as the impending oil shortage... but I do believe that with wind power, water power, and solar power we ought to be ok... those things are natural resources in abundance that I am convinced are being held back from mass deployment only because oil has been relatively abundant itself. Once oil supplies dwindle... everyone will have a windmill and solar panels... and of course small commuting vehicles.
Regarding joblessness and recession... well I don't think those things are inevitable... our current President and congressional leadership have messed things up pretty well... but things can be straightened out - nothing is irreverable. Get some competent people back into office and power positions and we'll see things turn around. Vote in Ron Paul and positive change might even happen faster :-)
They are talking about a oil crisis in a few years that will make the gasoline lines of the 1970s look like a picnic. Due to mega growth in the developing world, China and India have bought most of the world's oil. Terror attacks have cut off most of the oil from the Middle East. The War with Iran, started by Bush shortly before he was to leave office, is still going on. The cost for gasoline in America is $9.00 a gallon. Only the elites drive. Most of us are either unemployed or working in pick up day labor type jobs. Our wages due to global competition, are now closer to third world levels. We are in a economic depression.
The mortgage crisis has continued when most banks lost so much money that they were not able to give mortgages any more. The only mortgages available now are for elites and require a 20% down payment. Millions of homes stand empty and abandoned due to mass foreclosures. Many have been taken over (informally) by the illegal aliens who can't find a job after the government finally cracked down and the economy crashed and white people started working in fast food again.
Is this the future of America?
That's funny and sad at the same time.
What an awful thought that those people (China and India) might buy oil and drive cars. Shouldn't they be restricted to using rickshaws or bicycles or something? I mean, isn't the privilege of using petroleum products strictly a white person thing? How dare they presume to equate themselves with a white person?
The only mortgages available now are for elites and require a 20% down payment.
Umm, mortgages used to require 20% down payment. This was seen as a good thing. Are you saying it's bad?
In my town, there are *gasp*, white people, that work in fast food. The world must be coming to an end!
I find your entire post both racist and offensive.
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Nah.
