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Old 08-12-2013, 02:33 PM
 
Location: North of Canada, but not the Arctic
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Anyone watch 60 Minutes last night? China's real estate bubble - 60 Minutes - CBS News Pretty shocking. Not sure what the implications would be for the US, but we're so interconnected globally today...

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Old 08-12-2013, 03:39 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Retroit View Post
Anyone watch 60 Minutes last night? China's real estate bubble - 60 Minutes - CBS News Pretty shocking. Not sure what the implications would be for the US, but we're so interconnected globally today...

Depends on how China handles it. A bubble is only the gap between what a market system says now against the future. A politically created market pressure means the future must politically change. So until its exposed to the market, there is no realized revaluation.

A slave plantation with one massive estate and 1000 slaves would be a market bubble as soon as an act of manumission occurs. If not, then the estate is well priced with unlimited political power at any price. Its the creation of industry for what most people don't really want, but what of it without the power to value it?
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Old 08-12-2013, 04:21 PM
 
Location: North of Canada, but not the Arctic
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There's a lot of truth to that, but it's hard to imagine what future demand could ever close the gap with the present supply. I don't know a political solution that could work fast enough to prevent a crash. We couldn't prevent a housing crash in the US, so what could China do?
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Old 08-12-2013, 04:27 PM
 
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It's really a disaster. The problem is that China's population will never be able to fill that demand. Right now, at this very moment in time, China has the highest working-age population that it ever will. The numbers start to plunge in 2015. In fifty years, the United States will actually begin to approach China's working age population. Right now, cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have close to ten years of oversupply even if all construction halted today. When you realize that construction constitutes 20-25% of the Chinese GDP and it's a hair-raising nightmare, one that makes the Japanese property bubble of the late 80s early 90s look like a minor cash flow problem.
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Old 08-12-2013, 04:45 PM
 
Location: North of Canada, but not the Arctic
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I saw on one of the financial stations on TV today that the Chinese are beginning to invest heavily in the US real estate market. Found this online: Chinese To Spend Billions On American Real Estate - Forbes I wonder how much this will contribute to a second bubble here?
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Old 08-12-2013, 06:46 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Retroit View Post
There's a lot of truth to that, but it's hard to imagine what future demand could ever close the gap with the present supply. I don't know a political solution that could work fast enough to prevent a crash. We couldn't prevent a housing crash in the US, so what could China do?
Not future demand, but the current demand of the Chinese government to build ghost towns. If the slave master demands it, and the slaves are held in submission there is no bubble. Now if the slaves free themselves then there will be a revaluation.
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Old 08-12-2013, 06:48 PM
 
20,379 posts, read 18,235,417 times
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Originally Posted by Retroit View Post
I saw on one of the financial stations on TV today that the Chinese are beginning to invest heavily in the US real estate market. Found this online: Chinese To Spend Billions On American Real Estate - Forbes I wonder how much this will contribute to a second bubble here?

That will keep their industry low cost compared to ours. Turn the street into gold and it will cost too much to drive on them.
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Old 08-12-2013, 09:54 PM
 
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China has huge problems.bt it also ahs huge population that is working hard for the future they see. right now china controls who they let live in cities because only those born in a city where jobs pay well are also subsidized for housing. They do spend a lot but they also save at like 40% of income. That is what china is spending and they control the interest rates for use. Its the same I japan where deficit is over 200% but its owed to their citizens; not outside creditors. Going from poverty to number 2 economy in the world with so many poor so fast means huge problems to be expected for china.
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Old 08-14-2013, 03:04 PM
 
9,335 posts, read 8,824,357 times
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Originally Posted by cpg35223 View Post
It's really a disaster. The problem is that China's population will never be able to fill that demand. Right now, at this very moment in time, China has the highest working-age population that it ever will. The numbers start to plunge in 2015. In fifty years, the United States will actually begin to approach China's working age population. Right now, cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have close to ten years of oversupply even if all construction halted today. When you realize that construction constitutes 20-25% of the Chinese GDP and it's a hair-raising nightmare, one that makes the Japanese property bubble of the late 80s early 90s look like a minor cash flow problem.
You forgot 50% Chinese live in rural villages and are trying their best to move to cities.
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Old 08-14-2013, 03:05 PM
 
9,335 posts, read 8,824,357 times
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Originally Posted by cpg35223 View Post
It's really a disaster. The problem is that China's population will never be able to fill that demand. Right now, at this very moment in time, China has the highest working-age population that it ever will. The numbers start to plunge in 2015. In fifty years, the United States will actually begin to approach China's working age population. Right now, cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have close to ten years of oversupply even if all construction halted today. When you realize that construction constitutes 20-25% of the Chinese GDP and it's a hair-raising nightmare, one that makes the Japanese property bubble of the late 80s early 90s look like a minor cash flow problem.
You forgot 50% Chinese live in rural villages and are trying their best to move to cities.

Poor Chinese are hardworking and value education too, unlike poor people in *some* countries...
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