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Old 12-26-2013, 03:04 AM
 
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I cant seem to find a right forum for this, but this is the closest one.

there are many cities right now (nyc, boston, san fran, Honolulu, LA) that are getting super expensive, and nyc is already at a point where even doctors and lawyers are stuggling. it makes no sense, even for them to have kids there and the the best their kids can so is become a doctor, and still struggle. if their kids dont have the brainpower to do it, they will certainly struggle.


so my question is, do you think 2nd tier or even 3rd tier cities will boom because houses are much cheaper? i would say any city that is over 200k in population, and the cost of living is still low. if an average home in san fran is 800k, but you can get the same sf house in portland, OR (2nd tier) for 250k, or spokane, wa (3rd tier) for 150k and you wont have to struggle .


also, those big and expensive cities, i dont think the prices will drop, there are international buyers coming in with cash to buy them, and gentrification is making those places really expensive.
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Old 12-26-2013, 06:40 AM
 
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I have no idea if that will turn out to be true in the long run or not, but a number of new urbanists in a number of mid-level cities are quite literally banking on that idea. That if they can just put in the right infrastructure (metro/rail) - they will be able to lure people to them as centers of development.
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Old 12-26-2013, 06:59 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
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I think a lot of the second and third tier places will prosper as major cities become prohibitively expensive for many people.

A nurse I went to school with lives in Manhattan and pays $3,800/month for a 1BR. That's unbelievable to me. That's before you count in the NYC taxes. Even at $100k, she couldn't live as well as someone making $50-$60k in a reasonable COL, still high wage place like Minneapolis. Low tax states like TN and TX could also be better depending on the offer.

I learned a lot by living in the upper Midwest last year. Cities like Omaha, Des Moines, Minneapolis, etc, are not "sexy" places to live, but they are cheap, unemployment is very low, crime is relatively low, and you can live very well for your dollar there, much better than you can on a likely diminished salary here in the South or in some super high cost coastal area.

You still have to find an appropriate balance between "too big and costly" like NYC, DC, SF, etc, and "big enough to be relevant." It's going to be much cheaper to live in Pittsburgh than DC, but Pittsburgh is still large enough to be relevant. You could go cheaper than Pitt and live in southwest VA, but no one in their right mind will live there.

There are a lot of small to medium sized cities that remain somewhat undiscovered and are large enough to have something to do, while being cheap enough to be accessible.
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Old 12-26-2013, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
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The whole "new urbanist" movement is fueled by cheap fiat money from the Fed. With median incomes falling, nothing can support the overpriced cities like LA, NYC etc. The "foreign" money is not from anywhere other than the Fed. The money printed by QE is flowing back into the US as asset inflation. Once the dollar is rejected, this whole house of cards will fall. I see the only areas remaining viable as the ones driven by resources and not inflated by free Fed funny money. The high cost areas will be Detroit like in 20-30 years.
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Old 12-26-2013, 09:48 AM
 
7,976 posts, read 4,528,445 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tallrick View Post
The whole "new urbanist" movement is fueled by cheap fiat money from the Fed. With median incomes falling, nothing can support the overpriced cities like LA, NYC etc. The "foreign" money is not from anywhere other than the Fed. The money printed by QE is flowing back into the US as asset inflation. Once the dollar is rejected, this whole house of cards will fall. I see the only areas remaining viable as the ones driven by resources and not inflated by free Fed funny money. The high cost areas will be Detroit like in 20-30 years.


Quote:
Originally Posted by civic94 View Post
I cant seem to find a right forum for this, but this is the closest one.

there are many cities right now (nyc, boston, san fran, Honolulu, LA) that are getting super expensive, and nyc is already at a point where even doctors and lawyers are stuggling. it makes no sense, even for them to have kids there and the the best their kids can so is become a doctor, and still struggle. if their kids dont have the brainpower to do it, they will certainly struggle.


so my question is, do you think 2nd tier or even 3rd tier cities will boom because houses are much cheaper? i would say any city that is over 200k in population, and the cost of living is still low. if an average home in san fran is 800k, but you can get the same sf house in portland, OR (2nd tier) for 250k, or spokane, wa (3rd tier) for 150k and you wont have to struggle .


also, those big and expensive cities, i dont think the prices will drop, there are international buyers coming in with cash to buy them, and gentrification is making those places really expensive.
Quite possibly. People will go where the jobs are, and housing is still affordable.

The worlds a changing.
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Old 12-26-2013, 09:53 AM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordSquidworth View Post




Quite possibly. People will go where the jobs are, and housing is still affordable.

The worlds a changing.
Math never lies but those who are peddling garbage do.

Tobin's q - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 12-26-2013, 10:33 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordSquidworth View Post




Quite possibly. People will go where the jobs are, and housing is still affordable.

The worlds a changing.

well that, but for example i was thinking that people in the future might live in a big city where 1 br apartments cost 2000 and they just live with roomates for 600 a month while single, work there because thats where the high paying jobs are for thier profession, and they can never buy a 4 br house there, so they save up 200k cash, move to a 2nd or 3rd tier city, buy a 4 br house with cash, start a fmaily, and take a 30-40% pay cut because of their lower wages in that city, but they still came out ahead because they dont have to pay a mortgage.

I have a friend in nyc, makes 50k, and all he does is window shop, take the subway, dont eat out, live in a bad area, and it seems like he can never start a family. I believe any small city that is 3rd tier, as long as there is a small downtown, has a movie theatre, resturaunts, 1 bar/club, have sports teams that are not major league, bus system, and a low crime rate, people will think twice about moving there.
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Old 12-26-2013, 10:42 AM
 
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I think Orlando and the surrounding area fits the description. About 250K in population if you include the "suburbs." Since this last recession, which hit Orlando and Florida relatively hard due to the housing bubble, but also because it was mostly a service economy. People don't travel when unemployed. Since then, those charge have tried to bring in other industries. We now have Nemours Children's Hospital open, the VA set to open in February, Verizon just moved HQ's here and is hiring for tons of jobs etc. I hope it continues to grow. I moved here 4 years ago from SW Connecticut. I am doing so much better here than in CT. My salary is higher, my costs are lower and it's easier to find a job in my field without much competition.
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Old 12-26-2013, 12:47 PM
 
Location: moved
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I have no data, and will merely spout unsubstantiated but hopefully persuasive opinions:

- first-tier cities are unassailably attractive to highly-educated, ambitious professionals; and especially to those not particularly interested in starting a traditional family.

- second-tier cities can thrive, given two key ingredients: wise civic leadership that values long-term investment, and the good fortune of having proximity to natural resources, coasts or major rivers, or expensive mega-cities. So for example, if Baltimore had wise civic leadership, it could emerge as an alternative to DC, because of its location and coastal access. But not so with places like Peoria or Boise. They are essentially doomed regardless of what clever or aggressive civic policies their local leadership might enact.

- Some places are expensive because of a combination of taxes, transportation, real estate and essentially everything else. Other places are expensive mostly because of just the real estate, with everything else fairly moderate (examples: Chicago, Atlanta). One possible solution for the latter cities is a change from the American model of one nuclear family per domicile. If adult siblings and their families double-up, suddenly "expensive" real estate becomes eminently affordable, and many domestic costs can be shared. Then those cities can continue growing despite runaway real estate prices.

- A large part of residency decision is cultural, rather than economic. Many aficionados of NYC would never consider Houston or Atlanta, regardless of economic opportunities. Many small-town professionals, including successful lawyers and businessmen, would never consider the urbanized East Coast. Self-selection according to culture, politics, religion and values will continue to influence some people to pay for that $4000/month Manhattan apartment that they can't afford, while keeping many multimillionaires from bothering to ever step foot in Manhattan.

- A huge variable is where the wealthier members of the Baby Boom generation will choose to retire. If they abandon the marquee cities in favor of cheaper locales, supply/demand should have a rebalancing effect and attenuate growth of first-tier cities, while lending support to the second-tier. But if affluent 60-something New Yorkers and Chicagoans stay put, that's bad news both for the younger set looking to relocate to the glamor cities, and to the economic vibrancy of second-tier cities.

- I would have thought that over the past decade, the combination of Sept-11th/security-threats and internet/telework opportunities would have diffused professional/IT employment from the epicenters in DC and NYC towards lower-cost areas, such as central Pennsylvania and West Virginia. It didn't. Appalachia is only a few hours' drive from the major East Coast population centers, but remains remarkably poor and depopulated, while the high-cost centers boom. This again suggests that culture trumps raw economics.
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Old 12-26-2013, 01:18 PM
 
3,321 posts, read 3,094,637 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by katestar View Post
I think Orlando and the surrounding area fits the description. About 250K in population if you include the "suburbs." Since this last recession, which hit Orlando and Florida relatively hard due to the housing bubble, but also because it was mostly a service economy. People don't travel when unemployed. Since then, those charge have tried to bring in other industries. We now have Nemours Children's Hospital open, the VA set to open in February, Verizon just moved HQ's here and is hiring for tons of jobs etc. I hope it continues to grow. I moved here 4 years ago from SW Connecticut. I am doing so much better here than in CT. My salary is higher, my costs are lower and it's easier to find a job in my field without much competition.

With a population of only about 250,000, I certainly would not think of Orlando as a second tier city. However, after I looked it up and found that the Orlando metro area has a population of 2.1 million, maybe it might just barely make it in as a second tier city.

First tier cities are only a huge metropolis such as NY, LA, and maybe Chicago, but certainly not DC. DC would be second tier, along with many others, such as Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, etc.

Last edited by james777; 12-26-2013 at 01:33 PM..
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