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Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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There is a range by city and state, and on CD you are more likely to hear from people that are out of work or still upside-down on a mortgage. Here in my area it's definitely doing well and getting better. Our home prices are back to 2006 levels, and despite rising interest rates are selling in a week or less with multiple offers over asking. New stores are opening up, new apartments and office buildings are being built, and new home developments are in progress. In the Seattle/Bellevue area in 2004-6 there were probably 25 of those big yellow construction cranes building high-rises, then none from 2007-2011. Now there are probably 15 or more. Most of this is due to the massive hiring at Amazon and some other large employers, but it's also due to the many immigrants from other states and countries moving to the area and bringing money with them.
The "median" net worth of Americans is below what it was in 2000.
The "aggregate" net worth of Americans is higher.
Again, worth repeating here. The economy for the average worker in the countries of early industrialization will probably not relatively improve until their average incomes more or less equalize with those in the newly industrializing countries, a process that could take another 10-30 years more or less.
As I have guessed, over the past 36 months or so and most likely going forward the economy will continue to grow at an average 0%-2% pace, maybe with some quarterly statistical spikes to the 3% area.
One positive wild card could be the shale technology breakthrough, somewhat easing the energy constraint, and maybe more technology breakthroughs will be achieved going forward, further easing constraints on growth, though still not too sure how to what extent that would benefit the average worker.
I know a guy who recently quit his wage job to go into his own vintage motorcycle repair and restoration business, and I wished him luck. Don't know if that's any better than trying to sell new motorcycles.
There is some discussion this week among some very serious Wall Street people that the economic figures which are being released by the government are....well....fabricated. I think we all know that these economic figures are more 'guestimates' with numerous assumptions and adjustments, and don't actually represent much of anything 'real'.
Having said that, and not wishing to get involved in a 'tin foil' discussion, let me share a small anecdotal piece of evidence about the 'real economy'.
Small bank. East Coast. Serves the local and regional area--mostly private clients and small businesses.
I received the quarterly report from them the other day and they are virtually begging people to come and borrow from them. They have tons of deposits, are awash in liquidity, and begging for people to come in, or refer family and friends--basically anyone--to please come in and borrow some money.
These people have a fine track record and traditionally have served a moderately vibrant local economy. The area has some tourism, some wealthy individuals, some manufacturing, some service businesses, a bit of technology, outdoor activities, and a variety national businesses with local operations. Basically, a 'slice' of America.
Their new loan demand is zilch. Very few are interested in borrowing money for personal needs, or small business requirements.
To me that is a fair measure of the low level of economic activity. It could vary from region to region, but in this locale, the economy is quite soft....and with money basically priced at zero, it is starting to signal that deflation--the most horrid of economic outcomes--is potentially raising its ugly head.
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
44,553 posts, read 81,085,957 times
Reputation: 57728
Banks, big and small are suffering from lack of loans in large part because of the increasing popularity of credit unions. I belong to 2 credit unions now, with car loans from each at much lower than bank rates, and have closed two bank accounts. The credit unions pay actual interest (still not a lot) on checking and savings and no monthly fees, and people
are becoming more aware of this as banks raise and add fees.
There is a range by city and state, and on CD you are more likely to hear from people that are out of work or still upside-down on a mortgage.
I would have to agree.
We hear a lot of the bad, but not so much the good. I for one am reluctant to post about how I've done since 2008 just out of consideration to those who aren't fairing as well.
There is a range by city and state, and on CD you are more likely to hear from people that are out of work or still upside-down on a mortgage. Here in my area it's definitely doing well and getting better. Our home prices are back to 2006 levels, and despite rising interest rates are selling in a week or less with multiple offers over asking. New stores are opening up, new apartments and office buildings are being built, and new home developments are in progress. In the Seattle/Bellevue area in 2004-6 there were probably 25 of those big yellow construction cranes building high-rises, then none from 2007-2011. Now there are probably 15 or more. Most of this is due to the massive hiring at Amazon and some other large employers, but it's also due to the many immigrants from other states and countries moving to the area and bringing money with them.
I second this. The job market in Seattle is hot, with hundreds of new jobs being posted every day by the big three Amazon, Starbucks and Microsoft. Add on the thousands of other companies in the Seattle area and the market is almost what it was at its peak. Unemployment is down, home sales demand is outpacing inventory and prices are at new highs. I think the question that the OP presents is different depending on where you live.
It was good, albeit not healthy, prior to December, 2007. I say "good" in the sense of employment being high and people having lots and lots of consumer goods, fancy houses, and fancy cars. But it was not healthy in the sense of people being over-extended to order to live above their means. Anyone who chose to live within his means (and there were plenty of those sensible people) could still live very, very well; the only difference being that their houses and cars were sensible instead of impressive to the neighbors.
Taking the broader view, the economy was good from the end of World War II in 1945 to the beginning of the Great Recession in December, 2007. I do recognize that there were recessionary periods during those years during which unemployment rose, but I am saying that IN GENERAL, the economy was good.
The economy is in a slow recovery mode now, and has been for the last two or three years; almost every single indicator gives proof of that. Things are not back to "normal" yet (and there is a whole discussion possible about how to define "normal") and perhaps they never quite will be. But the economy is a whole lot better than it was, say, five years ago.
Corporate Profits are sky high, airlines flights full, hotels full and the stock market near record highs. Real estate prices in many communities doing very well. Lots of high paying jobs for people with strong technical skills.
All with lowering wages for middle class and unskilled workers. The top 20% and foreign countries booming supporting big business. With outsourcing and immigrants willing to work for peanuts, many corporations are doing just fine.
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