How is the economy doing? (loans, 2013, small business, accounting)

[speeddev1l]

Talked to a small business owner, he owns a motorcycle shop, and he was saying business is absolutely in the pits and the economy doing good is nothing but ridiculous nonsense. People are not confident to spend money.

Your thoughts?

[MountainBiking]

In my opinion I don't think the economy is doing as good as the financial press reports (e.g. CNBC)- but it's not diving either. To me the economy is moving sideways. Still too many job applications/resumes for the same job in just about every type of job. The unemployment rate is dropping because more and more people are not counted because they are giving up on looking. The methodology used to track unemployment needs to be changed to accurately count the actual number of unemployed Americans. The method currently used is merely an accounting trick.

-Cheers.

[Retroit]

Originally Posted by speeddev1l

Talked to a small business owner, he owns a motorcycle shop, and he was saying business is absolutely in the pits and the economy doing good is nothing but ridiculous nonsense. People are not confident to spend money.

Your thoughts?

Not many people riding motorcycles this time of year, are there?

[jm1982]

Another thing is a motorcycle is sort of in the luxury category.

I don't think too many people own only a motorcycle for their means of transportation.

He'll probably only see things pick up when the economy does "pick up" more and people are spending money like drunken sailors again.

I see this coming soon as you are already hearing about people accessing home equity again..Banks are pushing these loans again.

Aka history repeats itself..

People will be taking out those "low interest" loans and starting to buy up the toys again soon.

[speeddev1l]

Originally Posted by Retroit

Not many people riding motorcycles this time of year, are there?

They are... i'm in California, it was 76F sunny today, perfect day for a ride.

[mskamelot]

it was never good. when was it ever good?????

[jimhcom]

Originally Posted by speeddev1l

Talked to a small business owner, he owns a motorcycle shop, and he was saying business is absolutely in the pits and the economy doing good is nothing but ridiculous nonsense. People are not confident to spend money.

Your thoughts?

The "economy" is a hard thing to quantify. For some (mostly the rich) things are great and they never have had it better.

For the "average" person things are not so great according to this study. http://www.census.gov/people/wealth/...hts%202011.pdf

The "median" net worth of Americans is below what it was in 2000.

The "aggregate" net worth of Americans is higher.

[Frihed89]

Is the economy doing good? It depends on what indicators are being looked at and who you ask.

There is no general economic indicator that captures all of the aspects of "how's the economy doing?". You have to look at individual indicators, such as GDP (gross domestic product), PCE (personal consumption expenditures), CPI (consumer price index), unemployment rates, new housing starts,.....the list is endless. Once you start trying to put these together to tell a story, you get different stories.

There are at least two reasons for this. First, one person's gain may be another person's loss, and this holds true for the indicators as well There are trade offs everywhere. Second, who you ask depends on whether they are net winners or losers in economic terms. This shapes their view. It also depends on whether they are winners or losers based on their philosophical or political position: the T-Party focuses on losers, the traditional wing of the Republican Part focuses on winners and the Democratic Party focuses on what the Federal Government has done for you lately.

Sometimes, it gets complicated. For example, Paul Krugman has been telling people for a long time that the Federal Government should do more to stimulate the economy. Now, as the recovery begins, he's warning of long-term economic stagnation because the government didn't do enough.

Ask me how's the economy doing? Well I am employed in Denmark, so I have my self-interested viewpoint. The market is picking up (I own stocks). The dollar could be stronger against danish currency (I need to borrow from my US savings). The rest is all about Denmark. I'm not a good person to ask, but I venture to say that many people in the US will never recover from the finance crisis, but let's hope our children will.

[Serious Conversation]

Overall, I think there is slight forward progress in many areas and in most places. Personally, I've received more interviews and call backs during the past six months than I have in the previous four years. I received the best job offer of my life recently. The national reports show progress in fits and starts.

Locally in TN, anecdotally, I don't think I've ever seen it worse. Two of three local malls are now about half vacant - one is losing two anchors and will close within the next year, one is hanging by a thread, the other is pretty healthy. My hometown's downtown is boarded up, polluted, and has no life. Drug use and crime are through the roof, partly because there is little honest work left. My barber is 86 or 87, lived through the depression, and hasn't seen anything like this locally, even in the 1930s.

By the numbers, hourly wages have been sliding here since way back in 2012. The labor force is contracting and people are giving up. In a town of about 59,000, 2,900 people dropped out of the labor force from 11/2012 to 11/2013. The quality of jobs we have has declined, with what was once solid blue collar and white collar employment being replaced by temp workers, call centers, low wage retail, and food service. It's awful locally.

All I can do is do the best I can for myself.

[sentry12]

Originally Posted by speeddev1l

Talked to a small business owner, he owns a motorcycle shop, and he was saying business is absolutely in the pits and the economy doing good is nothing but ridiculous nonsense. People are not confident to spend money.

Your thoughts?

its not getting worse or improving, however the national debt is shooting UP. that will have its own consequences on economy later on (and it won't be positive).