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We are still in the 2000 secular bear. They last approximately 16-18 years so we're not even close to done.
A secular bear market lasts on the order of a decade, but precise reckoning is impossible. 9 years, meaning from spring of 2000 to spring of 2009, MAY have been the totality of it – or not. We can't be sure. Just because 1966-1982 was a secular bear market, does not imply that the next secular bear market must be 16 years long. It could be shorter, it could be longer. It could be something else entirely. We can't be sure that a 50% drop isn't coming next year. We can't be sure that a 50% drop isn't coming for another decade. Eventually we'll see another 50% drop; of that we can be sure. And another. And so on. But when? Clever and strategic anticipation tends to be neither clever nor strategic.
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Originally Posted by mathjak107
it was a lump sum check and yes it failed.
I wouldn’t be so sure. There's no way to run a contrary experiment to see what would have happened had there been no stimulus. Things might have been better, or worse, or unchanged. We don't know. And because we don't know, there's inadequate ground to assert that the stimulus was a failure. If one person receives a vaccine, while another does not, and neither succumbs to the disease against which the vaccine is supposed to protect, well, that alone is no proof that the vaccine was useless.
i am only talking about that one time stimulus check that tax payers got not, the stimulus package including the qe's. the checks we know failed because consumer spending did not jump as they predicted it would.
1987 was part of the secular bull. The 25% drop wouldn't intimidate me. I'd still be far wealthier than people my age and I would know that the money I added during the downturn would grow even faster.
We are still in the 2000 secular bear. They last approximately 16-18 years so we're not even close to done.
You have no way of knowing if the secular bear is done or not. By most definitions it is becasuse it is now significantly above the 1500 plus level of the breakout. It may go back and test that level and we'd still technically (by most definitions) be in bull yet, and a secular one at that.
You have no way of knowing if the secular bear is done or not. By most definitions it is becasuse it is now significantly above the 1500 plus level of the breakout. It may go back and test that level and we'd still technically (by most definitions) by in bull yet.
You listen to too much Bob Brinker.
Just come out and say "it's different this time" like they did in 1929 and 2007.
Just come out and say "it's different this time" like they did in 1929 and 2007.
What's different this time? I'm over 60. I think I've seen a little more than you have in a couple of your lifetimes. And I don't live in my Mom's house trading 1,000 at a time. LOL.
Every time is a little bit "different this time". But we've seen enough cycles to realize that simultaneously....
- There are sufficiently strong historical patterns to enable us to weave a compelling narrative IN HINDSIGHT
- There is rarely (if ever) enough accurate prediction to give actionable trading advice.
This is why academic research on market-behavior can be scientifically correct, yet perfectly useless.
Every time is a little bit "different this time". But we've seen enough cycles to realize that simultaneously....
- There are sufficiently strong historical patterns to enable us to weave a compelling narrative IN HINDSIGHT
- There is rarely (if ever) enough accurate prediction to give actionable trading advice.
This is why academic research on market-behavior can be scientifically correct, yet perfectly useless.
By a vast margin inside the market. I'd say a ratio of approximately 5:1 or more.
If this was true, you would not want a crash.
"Thou protest too much."
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