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It's hard to place the information revolution in any historical context, since it is so recent. Norbert Wiener didn't even publish his seminal work on cybernetics until 1948. The first commercially available microcontroller did not appear until 1974, and the first EEPROM microcontroller that allowed multi-process robots did not become widely available until 1993. The whole field is far too new to predict what will happen. The USA lags behind Japan by about a decade in robotics so, to a limited extent, we can predict where things are going here by seeing how they work there.
The industrial revolution replaced muscle power with machine power. The information revolution seems likely to perform the same feat regarding brain power. I suspect that society 50 years from now will be unrecognizable from our current perspective.
On second thought, Star Trek isn't "Marxist." It would be a mixed economy with basic income and a democratic socialist government. People still have to work to acquire obscure luxuries that can't be replicated.
People will demand political change when things get too bad, and compromises are made. It's happened before. When the first social welfare programs were created, it was with the purpose of ameliorating the worst excesses of industrial capitalism so there would not be rebellions. It will take considerable inequality though, at least 4-5 times worse than it is. People will put up with a lot, but not an unlimited amount of inequality. See: French Revolution, Russian Revolution, German social reforms, etc...
One thing you might be forgetting is the growing level of surveillance and robotic law enforcement. This is a totalitarian regime's wet dream. There are many that persisted for a long time with nothing close to that sort of control. We might not like it, but there will be nothing we can do. We are way past the stage where a mob with pitchforks can have an effect. By the time this change is mature, the useless public will have no means to complain.
And frankly most will be fine with it, so long as they can be comfortable without working. Income and wealth disparity has been growing rapidly for 40 years, but there is only a hint of protest, and that only recently after a severe recession. The public is being conditioned toward powerlessness. Drugged to numb the emotions. Feeling a little down? Just go to your doctor and he'll hook you up. The media does an excellent job of sowing confusion and division. Many people are upset and agitated, but do you see anything like an organized movement that could have any power? Where are the young people who've been hit the hardest? If they bother to say anything, they focus their ire on old people, turning it into a generational war.
Our future is looking more like Elysium or the Hunger Games.
One thing about those depictions is that the masses still performed useful work and were therefore needed by the elite. That made the dynamics very different from what I suspect they will be. We won't be slaves living in poverty and working for our masters, but we will rather have no use at all. I'm guessing that production efficiency will be so great that they won't mind giving us a comfortable and entertaining existence (mostly via electronic means), so long as we consume few resources and don't threaten them. It would cost them little in the grand scheme of things. Hopefully they will have enough compassion to prefer that option to just killing us or letting us suffer.
It wouldn't be terrible. If the VR tech becomes very sophisticated, we can basically live any fantasy we wish from the comfort and safety of our personal pods. Compare the resource consumption in that scenario with what is typical of a person in a developed country at this time.
One thing about those depictions is that the masses still performed useful work and were therefore needed by the elite. That made the dynamics very different from what I suspect they will be. We won't be slaves living in poverty and working for our masters, but we will rather have no use at all. I'm guessing that production efficiency will be so great that they won't mind giving us a comfortable and entertaining existence (mostly via electronic means), so long as we consume few resources and don't threaten them. It would cost them little in the grand scheme of things. Hopefully they will have enough compassion to prefer that option to just killing us or letting us suffer.
Probably a good way of describing my thoughts on this-IT will be compassion. And not very much will be needed.
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It wouldn't be terrible. If the VR tech becomes very sophisticated, we can basically live any fantasy we wish from the comfort and safety of our personal pods. Compare the resource consumption in that scenario with what is typical of a person in a developed country at this time.
I have a Samsung GearVR headset. It really is amazing, and extended use doesnt make me barf, unlike the early oculus efforts. And the Microsoft Hololens looks to be a winner as well in the augmented reality category.
For those who think that mobility is what will differentiate us from robots for a while. no. Just no. Don't think that for a second. They aren't developing a firefighting robot because its going to remain slow, and limited. You're making the exact same mistake I made when I originally thought there would never be a self driving car.
This stuff is coming along quite nicely in development.
I would bet money that 6 years from now this will out perform most humans: Google
no socialism does drive innovation has the Chinese found out when they switched to free market system. Communism and socialism is dying out in the world because of corruption and low production . North Korea is probably the only example today and look at it. Even Europe is shifting out of socialist programs as it cannot produce in a competitive world. Free market system is taking over the world as never before.The reason for word; emerging markets.
no socialism does drive innovation has the Chinese found out when they switched to free market system. Communism and socialism is dying out in the world because of corruption and low production . North Korea is probably the only example today and look at it. Even Europe is shifting out of socialist programs as it cannot produce in a competitive world. Free market system is taking over the world as never before.The reason for word; emerging markets.
And at a certain point capitalism becomes so uncontrolled that something must break. I love capitalism, however its not perfect. And the sort of topic we're discussing here is the sort of thing that will break it.
And on this topic, I hope I am wrong. Im a big fan of capitalism.
Even Europe is shifting out of socialist programs as it cannot produce in a competitive world.
The Scandinavian countries are capitalist with high taxes, social benefits, and wage supports. Their living standards have out performed the US over the last few decades. All developed countries have similar socio-economic structures. This is not an accident. I can make a really good case that the US suffers from too little "socialism" rather than too much. The trick is to be smart about it.
The middle class in every developed country has had depressed wages for a few decades, because the rich and powerful are doing the same thing all over the world. They are using globalization to drain capital from developed countries and get a lot richer than they otherwise could. It's been worse in the US because we have weaker social institutions, but it's happening everywhere. This isn't a failure of socialism, but rather a failure of democracy.
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