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Old 05-14-2016, 01:35 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,667 posts, read 6,595,121 times
Reputation: 4817

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fargobound View Post
We went on this OMG robot kick in the 80's
Really? I don't remember that at all. You must have been paying attention to silly "news". Popular Science? Real AI requires human level processing power and we were at the nematode level back then.




http://www.zdnet.com/article/nvidia-...learning-tech/

"Accelerating our growth is deep learning, a new computing model that uses the GPU's massive computing power to learn artificial intelligence algorithms," said Nvidia CEO and co-founder Jen-Hsun Huang, in a statement. "Its adoption is sweeping one industry after another, driving demand for our GPUs."

Nvidia has been vigorously chasing success in deep learning. Last November the company unveiled its hyperscale data center platform for deep learning with the goal of encouraging developers to build networks and smart apps rooted in artificial intelligence techniques.
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Old 05-14-2016, 01:40 PM
eok
 
6,684 posts, read 4,251,442 times
Reputation: 8520
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fargobound View Post
I want to take a ball peen hammer to the head of every millennial that starts babbling on about robots.
No need. That's a job robots can do easily.

But people are blind to how fast technology advances, and how fast that rate of advance keeps speeding up. The future is going to be so drastically different than the past, that it no longer makes sense to rely on experience of the past to predict the future.
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Old 05-14-2016, 01:53 PM
eok
 
6,684 posts, read 4,251,442 times
Reputation: 8520
Even if it were true that every lost manual labor job would be replaced by a tech job, how would that help the manual laborers unqualified for the tech jobs? And it's not even true. Each tech job that replaces manual labor jobs is likely to replace dozens or hundreds of them.

What might happen is that unemployable manual laborers might end up in some kind of homeless shelters, and might be required to get sterilized as a condition of staying there. And some of the children of tech workers might end up there too, because some of them might not qualify for tech jobs. It might amount to selective breeding. The tech workers that remained employed would breed, and those that became unemployable wouldn't. And if that went on for the indefinite future, it could amount to a new stage of evolution.
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Old 05-14-2016, 02:01 PM
eok
 
6,684 posts, read 4,251,442 times
Reputation: 8520
Quote:
Originally Posted by beb0p View Post
In the past:
Two guys working one truck.


Now:
One guy working one truck with a robotic arm,
and a team of engineers to design the robotic arm,
and marketing/sales team to sell the robotic arm,
and accounting dept to handle the numbers,
and workers at manufacturing plants to make the robotic arm,
and maintenance crew to service the robotic arm.

Yes, the robotic arms are not just replacing one guy on one truck, they are replacing a lot of guys on a lot of trucks. I get that. However, it is also creating other positions to be filled. The key question is whether it is a net loss or a net gain in jobs. That's the key question, and data on that is unavailable as far as I know.

But I'm very confident it's a net gain in jobs.
The fallacy of that logic is that it relies on your confidence that your conclusion is correct in spite of lack of evidence or logic for it's being correct. That confidence is severely misplaced. A company that makes robotic arms is going to make thousands of them, if not millions. A few dozen tech workers can replace thousands or millions of manual laborers.
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Old 05-14-2016, 02:13 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,667 posts, read 6,595,121 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eok View Post
It might amount to selective breeding.
I think the social engineering will take many decades to mature. There is no reason to force anyone to do anything, rather just manipulate conditions and attitudes to result in the desired outcome. The elimination of subsidies for children would greatly reduce the birthrate among the poor.

Or am I being too optimistic?
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Old 05-14-2016, 02:39 PM
 
7,899 posts, read 7,112,201 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
..... "Its adoption is sweeping one industry after another, driving demand for our GPUs."

.........

Looking at the past, we can see the rapid development of computing power. In fact Intel has had a corporate goal to keep up with Moore's Law. At least until recently: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...on-moores-law/


It seems that there is little more that can be achieved with silicone chip technology. Intel foresees only a possible 4 additional years. It seems computing power is about to hit a plateau and may be fixed at that point for quite a while until some new technology emerges.
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Old 05-14-2016, 02:40 PM
eok
 
6,684 posts, read 4,251,442 times
Reputation: 8520
Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
The elimination of subsidies for children would greatly reduce the birthrate among the poor.
Eliminating subsidies for children would not be politically correct. Requiring sterilization for long term residency in a homeless shelter would be a lot more likely. And if the homeless shelters get too full and have too long a waiting list, it might make sense to build more of them where real estate is cheaper, such as in a desert, or far from a city. With the stated intent that people could live in those remote shelters while waiting for space to become available in city shelters. And keep building more and more of the remote shelters while the city shelters stagnate. To eventually get all the losers away from the city. And when they stay there a certain amount of time, and become long term residents, that's when they have to get sterilized or move out, and not qualify for any homeless shelter.
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Old 05-14-2016, 02:41 PM
eok
 
6,684 posts, read 4,251,442 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
It seems that there is little more that can be achieved with silicone chip technology.
Maybe they could use the silicone for breast implants.
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Old 05-14-2016, 02:46 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,667 posts, read 6,595,121 times
Reputation: 4817
Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
It seems computing power is about to hit a plateau and may be fixed at that point for quite a while until some new technology emerges.
Look at my link above for Nvidia, and research where the deep-learning projects are headed. GPUs (video cards) are used because they are massive parallel processors. This is much more effective and mimics brain function. CPUs (like Intel makes) are optimized for sequential tasks where raw single thread speed is most important.
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Old 05-14-2016, 03:22 PM
 
7,899 posts, read 7,112,201 times
Reputation: 18603
Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
Look at my link above for Nvidia, and research where the deep-learning projects are headed. GPUs (video cards) are used because they are massive parallel processors. This is much more effective and mimics brain function. CPUs (like Intel makes) are optimized for sequential tasks where raw single thread speed is most important.
GPU cards use silicone based components, the same technology used in CPUs.
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