Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
First, consumption is not unlimited. We are already facing real resource constraints on this planet with our current level of consumption and development. Energy is a big one. Total planetary energy consumption may well be lower 50 years from now than it is currently unless new sources and methods are invented. Our current options are not promising.
Advanced robotics will result in productivity shooting up rapidly... that is real output per aggregate human labor. It's absurd to think that our total consumption will keep pace with that, particularly as more of the world is developed and more resources are squeezed. There will be less need for human labor. It's the only way to solve the equation. The "natural" way that will be solved is for the persons with the least competitive advantage relative to machines to become unemployable. They can be supported with welfare, but they will cease to be a *productive* member of the economy. As the robotics and AI become more advanced, the number of persons in that category will grow.
Energy?
Do you seriously think that we will have good AI before we can have large-scale solar power?
We just need to make the government pay subsidies to employers to make up such jobs in much the same way farmers are paid to not grow crops.
Government has not paid farmers "not to grow crops" since the Nixon Administration. Why do you think we have high fructose corn syrup in everything we eat and drink these days?
Sorry this is so long, but I couldn’t think of a good way to pare it down. This is something I’ve been researching and contemplating for a long time (years), and I’m having a tough time imagining a realistic yet happy outcome in light of recent trends. I'd like to know your thoughts.
If you like videos, this is one I found that does a pretty good job of covering key aspects of how robotics will make human labor obsolete. If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend it. The main thing I'm concerned with is what will happen then?
Computers are getting more sophisticated all the time. Before long they will be "smart" enough to make some human workers obsolete... meaning that the person has *no* viable task that they can perform better or at a lower cost than a machine. These people will be unemployable, and as the machines continue to become more sophisticated, the number of persons in this category will grow.
Every developed country in the world runs on a consumer capitalist economic model. That's because it has been proven the most successful since the industrial revolution began. The consumer/worker is vital part of this system, because the prosperity of the capitalist depends on the prosperity of the consumer. The capitalist makes profit from making and selling stuff to consumers. If consumer income and wealth doesn't increase, then the capitalist's wealth can't either for long. It's a symbiotic relationship that never before existed in human history. Previously serfs, peasants, and slaves provided valuable labor, but there was no incentive for the wealthy to allow them to keep more than a bare minimum of their production.
Consumer capitalism also favors a democratic government, human rights, and freedom. Why? The general population will work harder and be more efficient and more willing to fight wars if they are free, which ultimately increases the power and wealth of the capitalists.
Our socio-ecomomic system will soon be obsolete. As the economically useless humans become a greater % of the population, consumer capitalism will no longer be viable. From the capitalist standpoint the consumer is no longer a vital part of the system, but rather something that merely consumes resources while providing no value to them. We will not descend to our previous level of serfs and peasants. Those positions will be taken by machines. From the standpoint of the wealthy, the unemployable persons will be like vermin. Instead they can use those resources for themselves, and use robotic slaves to build whatever they want directly and much more efficiently than ever before. They will experience a lifestyle and degree of luxury and power that we can't even imagine today, but it will only be for a few.
What do you suppose will happen to our human rights and living standards then? I don’t expect this change to happen swiftly. There is only so much you can do in one generation before people really notice and complain. The necessary computer sophistication will probably take another 30 to 40 years before a majority of the population becomes unemployable. Most likely welfare will be expanded, and propaganda will continue to pit the middle class (who experience higher taxes and declining living standards) against the lower class (who don't work and receive the dole). Divide and conquer. But the population will be mollified and distracted one way or another while the number of unemployable persons grows. I imagine in a short few decades most of us will be "happily" spending nearly all our time in VR pods hooked up to feeding and evacuation tubes... until we die. And that is an optimistic scenario. Useless humans might be eliminated much more swiftly, especially if there is a shooting battle for world domination.
The alternative? That democracy and freedom are actually strong enough for the interests and wishes of the majority to win out over the desires of the powerful few. And so we share in the bounty and all live better and more interesting lives without needing to work.
Trends are not encouraging. The greatly increased spying and surveillance, along with a repeal of some legal protections, is one disturbing aspect. Totalitarian control that is well beyond anything seen before in the world is now possible. Another is the globalization and “free trade” project that the US embarked on several decades ago. This was sold as something that would make us all richer, and that could have been the case. Instead it was structured from the beginning to benefit the wealthy greatly, and result in depressed wages for rest of the population. Even now it is taboo to point this out. Which brings to mind what is probably the most disturbing trend; the apparent success of propaganda to divide the populous 50/50 around issues that are of little importance. This keeps everyone “entertained” and distracted over political theater and indignation over “hot button” issues, and effectively powerless to organize and change anything worthwhile. Democracy may have always been a sham, but this is becoming more obvious at the time when we really need it to work.
That is why I have my son in the robotics program at a magnet school. Somebody will have to build the robots, yet others will need to program them. Then there's the whole maintenance side of things as well. They are mechanical and will fail. It's basically creating another type of industry. Adapt or die, as the story goes.
Do you seriously think that we will have good AI before we can have large-scale solar power?
We *can* have large scale solar power now. It is material and capital intensive and takes up a lot of land. It is expensive for that reason, and we still haven't solved the energy storage problem. That is another thing that is waiting for a sci-fi breakthrough. None of the alternative energy sources look very promising. If/when we run out of fossil fuel, we'll be lucky if we can maintain our energy consumption, let alone increase it by orders of magnitude.
Then there's the whole maintenance side of things as well. They are mechanical and will fail.
I'd guess that repair jobs will not last long as this becomes more mature. Robots will repair themselves. Design and programming will last longer. Increasingly though, that will also employ fewer people. You'll need to be at the pointy end of brilliance.
We *can* have large scale solar power now. It is material and capital intensive and takes up a lot of land. It is expensive for that reason, and we still haven't solved the energy storage problem. That is another thing that is waiting for a sci-fi breakthrough. None of the alternative energy sources look very promising. If/when we run out of fossil fuel, we'll be lucky if we can maintain our energy consumption, let alone increase it by orders of magnitude.
Why don't you think that energy storage in the form of hydrogen or rechargeable batteries or supercapacitors will be easily scalable?
I'd guess that repair jobs will not last long as this becomes more mature. Robots will repair themselves. Design and programming will last longer. Increasingly though, that will also employ fewer people. You'll need to be at the pointy end of brilliance.
I don't, but my son does. I've got the rest of my life covered, so it's going to be his problem. LoL.
Why don't you think that energy storage in the form of hydrogen or rechargeable batteries or supercapacitors will be easily scalable?
Look at the research and studies that have been done. It's expensive and not economically viable. There is a reason why we are still burning oil, NG, coal, etc. Nuclear is the most promising, but that isn't cheap either and comes with a big pollution hazard.
The scenario that you envision, where the rapid rise of productivity is matched by consumption rising at the same rate, would require a benign and inexpensive energy source. A new discovery. It's possible this will happen soon, but it's also possible that it *never* will. Even if energy becomes less of an issue, there will be constraints on other resources that will become limiting factors. In theory if energy is *really* cheap, or we discover anti-gravity, we could expand off planet. To expand beyond our solar system we would need yet another discovery that would make interstellar travel at near light speed (or warp speed) possible.
At the time frames we are looking at for robotics I would not hold out much hope for any of this saving us from rapid job loss and the death of consumer-capitalism.
Look at the research and studies that have been done. It's expensive and not economically viable. There is a reason why we are still burning oil, NG, coal, etc. Nuclear is the most promising, but that isn't cheap either and comes with a big pollution hazard.
The scenario that you envision, where the rapid rise of productivity is matched by consumption rising at the same rate, would require a benign and inexpensive energy source. A new discovery. It's possible this will happen soon, but it's also possible that it *never* will. Even if energy becomes less of an issue, there will be constraints on other resources that will become limiting factors. In theory if energy is *really* cheap, or we discover anti-gravity, we could expand off planet. To expand beyond our solar system we would need yet another discovery that would make interstellar travel at near light speed (or warp speed) possible.
At the time frames we are looking at for robotics I would not hold out much hope for any of this saving us from rapid job loss and the death of consumer-capitalism.
Realistic... don't think it's sensible to rely on "magic" to save us...
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
