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Old 05-10-2015, 04:44 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GregW View Post
If you think this is going to be a problem with our economy what is going to happen to third world economies with high birth rates? Even when industries move there to find "cheap labor" they will be importing the automated factories that do not need very much labor.
I believe that one of the reasons third world labor is still very popular is because it's cheaper than automation. So I don't think they'll have problems until they start demanding higher wages and better working conditions.
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Old 05-10-2015, 04:48 PM
 
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I believe that one of the reasons third world labor is still very popular is because it's cheaper than automation. So I don't think they'll have problems until they start demanding higher wages and better working conditions.
for a time, it was getting just as expensive to make it overseas because the cost of shipping the products back to the US. But with the cheaper oil, not sure if that is still true.

I'm hoping automation takes off more. Heard about the "automated" trucks now (in addition to google's driving cars). Imagine how well schedules can be kept if automation did most of the work at set times?

And I can relax on the beach
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Old 05-10-2015, 05:06 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eyeb View Post
for a time, it was getting just as expensive to make it overseas because the cost of shipping the products back to the US. But with the cheaper oil, not sure if that is still true.

I'm hoping automation takes off more. Heard about the "automated" trucks now (in addition to google's driving cars). Imagine how well schedules can be kept if automation did most of the work at set times?

And I can relax on the beach
That would make a lot of sense.

I suppose another solution would be simply to remove all labor regulations and bring third world working conditions back to America. Gated communities would flourish and we'd fully transition to neo-feudalism.

Or they could go the other way and develop a strong welfare state so people could afford to have several different careers over their lifetimes, without acquiring massive amounts of debt in the process.

You could also restructure the education system so that students were streamed into their chosen area of expertise at a much younger age and then grew increasingly specialized, so by the time they finished high school they were relatively proficient in multiple subjects related to their eventual career and could fall back on a lifetime of knowledge should that career become obsolete... with social safety nets there to 'catch' them when they inevitably experience a period of unemployment due to being obsolete and going back to study more in-demand career skills. Of course, that might be a little too Brave New World for some people.

But with AI entering the picture and factoring in exponential growth, I'm really not sure if ANY job will be irreplaceable.

I'd love to hang out on the beach, but I'm not sure how I would afford it.
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Old 05-10-2015, 05:31 PM
 
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Its not anything new as pure labor since the industrial age has slowly disappeared. The only factor is cost basis to do many jobs. Now days even farms are highly heavy equipped to do labor. More labor now days is equipment operation.
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Old 05-10-2015, 05:48 PM
 
Location: Someplace Wonderful
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Originally Posted by MJ7 View Post
30% seems about right, there will always be a market for custom goods though, many things done by robots are just bland.
Plumbers, carpenters, handy work, auto mechanics will always have decently paying jobs.
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Old 05-10-2015, 05:52 PM
 
Location: Someplace Wonderful
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Originally Posted by Spatula City View Post

But with AI entering the picture and factoring in exponential growth, I'm really not sure if ANY job will be irreplaceable.

I'd love to hang out on the beach, but I'm not sure how I would afford it.
Try automating plumbing repair (or even new installations) or auto repair.

Good thing I dont like the beach ...
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Old 05-10-2015, 06:05 PM
 
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Originally Posted by chuckmann View Post
Try automating plumbing repair (or even new installations) or auto repair.

Good thing I dont like the beach ...
How about self-replicating nanobots in the pipes, purifying the water, battling rust, rapidly breaking down waste products and unstopping drains before they are clogged. Also, smaller, self-driving cars connected to GPS satellites that direct them in perfect co-ordination with every other car on the road to avoid all accidents while the passengers entertain themselves with the Internet. These are also filled with nanobots designed to keep them in perfect working order. Also, advanced perovskite solar cells on the roof so they don't require gasoline.

These developments are probably only 20 or 30 years away. There will still be problems I'm sure, but the big one is probably going to be planned obsolescence, which is more of a political problem than a technological one.
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Old 05-10-2015, 06:10 PM
 
Location: Someplace Wonderful
5,177 posts, read 4,792,616 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spatula City View Post
How about self-replicating nanobots in the pipes, purifying the water, battling rust, rapidly breaking down waste products and unstopping drains before they are clogged. Also, smaller, self-driving cars connected to GPS satellites that direct them in perfect co-ordination with every other car on the road to avoid all accidents while the passengers entertain themselves with the Internet. These are also filled with nanobots designed to keep them in perfect working order. Also, advanced perovskite solar cells on the roof so they don't require gasoline.

These developments are probably only 20 or 30 years away. There will still be problems I'm sure, but the big one is probably going to be planned obsolescence, which is more of a political problem than a technological one.
I'd give it more like 50-75 on the nanobots. After that, it's a matter of economics. Do I pay 50,000 for the cutting edge technology, or do I pay a few hundred a year for a human service tech? ROI, baby, ROI.
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Old 05-10-2015, 06:35 PM
 
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i see fast food jobs being replaced by robots quite easily.
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Old 05-10-2015, 06:41 PM
 
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But the human whines, do you want to listen to that?

Quote:
You could also restructure the education system so that students were streamed into their chosen area of expertise at a much younger age and then grew increasingly specialized, so by the time they finished high school they were relatively proficient in multiple subjects related to their eventual career and could fall back on a lifetime of knowledge should that career become obsolete... with social safety nets there to 'catch' them when they inevitably experience a period of unemployment due to being obsolete and going back to study more in-demand career skills. Of course, that might be a little too Brave New World for some people.
Asia kind of does that, I mean the streamlining thing, if they can't pass the test to entire middle and high school, their formal education ends there, and then again at the college level.

And it isn't like we can't switch careers in the US if we wanted to. The myth that it cost a lot of money is absurd. Sure there are school debts, but those debts aren't as bad as people seem to think they are. The price of college right now is about the cost of a new car. Even people without a college degree are "financing" new cars daily, they just choose a new car over their own education. The "bad" jobs situation isn't really that bad either. Sure if you have 30k in debt and work for minimum wage... yeah that's bad. It's also bad that they didn't have the foresight to think about what they wanted to do post college as well. Adults should figure out why they want to buy something before buying it. Why is college any different?
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