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Probably. The only question, as I see it, is timing, meaning when it will really begin and how long it will take.
I figure it will start in about 4 years, and will take 3-4 years.
The economic effect will be huge. a TON of people spend their days driving. And this is just one small part of things being automated. If t was JUST this we could probably cope....but its not.
When it does happen, it will be quite a loss for drivers. My uncle was a truck driver and did very well providing not to mention the retirement benefits he got. If my husband didnt hate driving, he would of considered it. I think it may have a similar effect.
I thought with all of the Amazon online shopping, delivery driver was the safest job in the world. Not anymore. Not when Robby the Robot Car comes to deliver your package.
I think you are fine for the next 20 years or a lot longer. When a new technology comes out it takes time to get into the mainstream, also very few will be able to afford it at first. People with used cars will be 10 years of more behind the trend even if it becomes common place.
It's also dangerous as it relies on electronics which can fail as well as satellites that can fail.
It would be great to get in the car, tell it where to go and just sit back and enjoy the ride. Back to reality, I cannot even get my Garmin to find locations and a reasonable route. The Navigation on my cell phone is even worse and often tries to send me the wrong way on a one way street. It often thinks I am on an adjacent street. Last week I could not get it to link to satellite for half an hour. The next day it did the same thing but has worked every day since.
When a society loses control of it's government it loses the ability to adapt to the changing environments.
I don't believe we've controlled our government for a very long time. Possibly never. It's always been in the service of the rich and powerful.
It's important to remember that consumer capitalism requires prosperous middle class. It's symbiotic. That's why median incomes rose so much from the early 1800s til ~1975. And since then the oligarchs embarked on a new plan, and have been draining capital from the US and using it as a dumping ground for foreign production. They've gotten richer at a much faster rate, while we've gotten high debt and stagnant wages. So long as they can develop consumer markets elsewhere, they don't care about us.
If we *don't* get control of the government, then I predict a dire future. When robotics becomes sophisticated enough an increasing % of the population will become unemployable, meaning there is no task they can perform better than a machine that would justify a decent wage. We aren't there yet, and won't be for a good while. The driverless car is no different than all the other mechanization that has occurred over the last 200 years. Collectively it makes us richer not poorer. As you stated, the problem is managing the changes in service of the public good.
The truth is that machines increase productivity, and reduce the need for human labor. Of course this in direct conflict with the fact that our population is growing exponentially worldwide and increasing the labor pool accordingly.
The result is that our economies are engineered in order to push future consumption ahead to the present in order to increase employment at the cost of using future earnings to pay for current consumption.
This sobering scenario in not sustainable in the long run, and yet we are faced with increases in automation, population and debt going forward into the foreseeable future.
At least until these factors result in unrest among the people who can no longer sustain themselves, at which point there will be unrest and revolt against governments and the status quo.
Leaders will do as they always do, and divert public anger at external causes which lead ultimately to war.
War in turn, decreases population, blows up factories, machinery, and infrastructure, eliminates debt through default, and resets the equilibrium.
After devastating war, prosperity returns as there is need for production and labor.
We have a hard enough time keeping airplanes apart, driverless cars and trucks pfft yeah they'll get that right. To give you an idea of how far we have to go Google maps tired to route me 100 miles in the wrong direction just the other day.
I am thinking it will be reality in the next 15 years. I would think the transition would start on the interstates with local drivers on the surface streets.
I personally would love to just get in a vehicle, tell it my destination while I relax and enjoy the view or be productive. I might consider road trips more than flying to distant destinations if I could relax in a small RV that self drives. Imagine napping in back or eating lunch while the world rolls by the window. I could sit in back with my big screen TV watching netflix. Even if it cost more than flying at least you don't have all the airport hassle.
I don't believe we've controlled our government for a very long time. Possibly never. It's always been in the service of the rich and powerful.
It's important to remember that consumer capitalism requires prosperous middle class. It's symbiotic. That's why median incomes rose so much from the early 1800s til ~1975. And since then the oligarchs embarked on a new plan, and have been draining capital from the US and using it as a dumping ground for foreign production. They've gotten richer at a much faster rate, while we've gotten high debt and stagnant wages. So long as they can develop consumer markets elsewhere, they don't care about us.
If we *don't* get control of the government, then I predict a dire future. When robotics becomes sophisticated enough an increasing % of the population will become unemployable, meaning there is no task they can perform better than a machine that would justify a decent wage. We aren't there yet, and won't be for a good while. The driverless car is no different than all the other mechanization that has occurred over the last 200 years. Collectively it makes us richer not poorer. As you stated, the problem is managing the changes in service of the public good.
The gov't has always been disproportionally influenced by the rich and powerful, sure. However the populace as a whole always had some influence as well.
What I was talking about, however, is the developments that are making governments basically irrelevant when it comes to the international corporations. It's no longer the issue with who controls the government, but what powers will that government have over the future of the country. Once the country gov'ts become powerless, we've lost our society.
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