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Old 01-20-2008, 08:48 AM
 
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I was talking with a friend of mine about the economy, etc. He asked me whether I thought that depression in the United States was even still possible given how the US economy is essentially global. I can understand recession, but is a depression possible? Or is it just semantics? Curious about your opinion.
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Old 01-20-2008, 09:15 AM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
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Well, since demand is local and the debt is to the "United States" I think that a depression is possible. The economy today is a lot more vulnerable than it was in 1929. When we run out of gas I think the rest of the world will be distracted witht heir own problems. The end of cheap energy means the end of globalization.
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Old 01-20-2008, 09:22 AM
 
Location: mississippi
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Not possible. How's why. The government will save us. There is a whole city of experts watching the every move. When there is hurt, there will be a response. The society in general is pretty soft, it will be saved. What an individual can do is be ready to take advantage of the fixes. Slow down a little, think, and be ready. Right now it is a little influx of government cash.....but there will be more!
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Old 01-20-2008, 09:34 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tallrick View Post
The end of cheap energy means the end of globalization.
The end of cheap energy is a big assumption. Oil based energy, yes, but there are other forms of energy, renewable and atomic for example. Europe uses Atomic energy more than we do in the US. It is very likely that its use will increase in the US.
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Old 01-20-2008, 09:37 AM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
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Originally Posted by daminos View Post
The end of cheap energy is a big assumption. Oil based energy, yes, but there are other forms of energy, renewable and atomic for example. Europe uses Atomic energy more than we do in the US. It is very likely that its use will increase in the US.
Unfortunately big Government and enviro-wackos have stifled nuclear power development. Yes there are alternatives, but we have dug ourselves into a hole with only a shovel to get us out. Unlike Europe we rely on oil for transportation, exclusively.
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Old 01-20-2008, 09:40 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spinrider2000 View Post
Not possible. How's why. The government will save us. There is a whole city of experts watching the every move. When there is hurt, there will be a response. The society in general is pretty soft, it will be saved. What an individual can do is be ready to take advantage of the fixes. Slow down a little, think, and be ready. Right now it is a little influx of government cash.....but there will be more!
I doubt that cash infusion can be anything but a very short term "fix". We will be borrowing this cash which will only lead to a devaluation of the dollar.

In fact, my question has more to do with how this government intervention you seem to be proposing is going to impact us long-term. Will our borrowing lead to a depression. I can see how it can lead to recession and even a deep recession / stagflation, can it lead to a destruction of our economy?
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Old 01-20-2008, 09:44 AM
 
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Originally Posted by tallrick View Post
Unfortunately big Government and enviro-wackos have stifled nuclear power development. Yes there are alternatives, but we have dug ourselves into a hole with only a shovel to get us out. Unlike Europe we rely on oil for transportation, exclusively.
That is for sure. But I think when big time trouble happens, we will do what we have to in order to get the energy we need. The Chernoble accident was not even remotely as bad as it was made out to be. And Europe has been operating nuclear plants safely for many years. And Europeans are even more Green than the US are.
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Old 01-20-2008, 09:51 AM
 
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I don't think we'll go into a full blown depression but, I think this recession is going to be really nasty.

Afterall ... foreclosures are reaching depression era levels. The real indicator though will be the unemployment rate. During the Great Depression it got up to 25 percent ...

We're not anywhere near that ... at least not yet.

But, I do think we're going into a worldwide recession. Even though China, etc. has been booming, it was largely driven by debt fueled American spending ... which has now come to a screeching halt.
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Old 01-20-2008, 10:16 AM
 
Location: Drury Lane
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Originally Posted by sheri257 View Post
I don't think we'll go into a full blown depression but, I think this recession is going to be really nasty.

Afterall ... foreclosures are reaching depression era levels. The real indicator though will be the unemployment rate. During the Great Depression it got up to 25 percent ...

We're not anywhere near that ... at least not yet.

But, I do think we're going into a worldwide recession. Even though China, etc. has been booming, it was largely driven by debt fueled American spending ... which has now come to a screeching halt.
Never mind a depression, I don't think we're close to a recession either. I understand there are two definitions for a recession but I don't think we're there yet based on that understanding. A recession occurs with two sustained quarters of negative GDP growth or the more ambiguous definition of a significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months.

The economy has been really fast in the last several years and the 10% correction in the market says things are slowing down. It makes sense but I don't think things will grind to a complete halt.
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Old 01-20-2008, 10:50 AM
 
Location: Sitting on a bar stool. Guinness in hand.
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Default possible not probable

Quote:
Originally Posted by spinrider2000 View Post
Not possible. How's why. The government will save us. There is a whole city of experts watching the every move. When there is hurt, there will be a response. The society in general is pretty soft, it will be saved. What an individual can do is be ready to take advantage of the fixes. Slow down a little, think, and be ready. Right now it is a little influx of government cash.....but there will be more!
I think a depression is possible but not probable. We do have a precedent for it if it was to happen. And we can learn what to do and what not to do from what we did back in the 1930's.

Actually I find it kind of funny that America's infrastructure is really starting to fall apart right now (ex. the bridge at Minneapolis,MN.) Now if the country does fall into a depression and unemployment does skyrocket. I wonder if your going to see a government effort to push to revitalize our infrastructure? Well we will see won't we.
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