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No, it's not just fracking. A Saudi oil minister hinted earlier this year that the continuing world climate change summits represent a long term risk to the value of Saudi oil assets. The Saudis are right; in the decades ahead, as climate change worsens, world pressure to discourage oil consumption could leave Saudi Arabia holding the bag if oil remains underground unsold as a stranded asset. This has more or less already happened to coal. I also believe they see the massive exponential growth in solar and wind power worldwide, and it makes them nervous enough to be happy to take $65 today because oil might only fetch $25 in 20 years.
You're right and they were so stupid for a decade. They kept prices way too high instead of letting it drop back to early 2000s levels. Had they kept it low, it would have acted as a counterweight to the mainstreaming of all this eco stuff and alternative energy sources that have now reached the point of no return. They are trying to correct that now, but its too late.
The Saudis are targeting Russia, Iran, and North Dakota. These are short-term market plays, not part of some long-term geo-political strategy. You put up a bug-zapper to limit bugs on the patio, not because you think bugs will go extinct as the result.
The Saudis are targeting Russia, Iran, and North Dakota. These are short-term market plays, not part of some long-term geo-political strategy. You put up a bug-zapper to limit bugs on the patio, not because you think bugs will go extinct as the result.
Some of both. The Saudis are already on record as saying they know oil is going to sunset. They are investing now in large solar energy plants and are making plans to export electricity. They have made it clear they are thinking ahead.
"Mr Naimi, whose comments on oil supply routinely move markets, told a conference in Paris on business and climate change: “In Saudi Arabia, we recognise that eventually, one of these days, we are not going to need fossil fuels. I don’t know when, in 2040, 2050 or thereafter.”" (via Financial Times)
You're right and they were so stupid for a decade. They kept prices way too high instead of letting it drop back to early 2000s levels. Had they kept it low, it would have acted as a counterweight to the mainstreaming of all this eco stuff and alternative energy sources that have now reached the point of no return. They are trying to correct that now, but its too late.
+1, excellent point... when oil got to $100/bbl it kicked off a double whammy, the "eco stuff" and it made US fracking profitable. The last shoe yet to drop is solving the car battery problem. Once cars are quick to charge and have long range, the wheels will be motion to slowly kill oil as an energy source. Elon Musk must make the oil industry nervous.
Some of both. The Saudis are already on record as saying they know oil is going to sunset.
Who is in the camp that says oil will never run out?
The purpose of recent Saudi/OPEC policies has been to inflict a punch in the gut of Russia primarily, but also of Iran and North Dakota. There isn't a lot more to it than that. All the world is a stage of course, and history plays out in long arcs, but oftentimes there is nothing more to a message sent than "Hey, you're ticking us off."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA
They are investing now in large solar energy plants and are making plans to export electricity. They have made it clear they are thinking ahead.
That's a good idea (unless you are an American right-winger), but these plans are not affecting the current price of oil.
+1, excellent point... when oil got to $100/bbl it kicked off a double whammy, the "eco stuff" and it made US fracking profitable.
What happened in the early 80s when political events made US oil production price-competitive?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA
The last shoe yet to drop is solving the car battery problem. Once cars are quick to charge and have long range, the wheels will be motion to slowly kill oil as an energy source.
You are talking about transportation energy, the biggest waste of oil around. Oil is used for many other purposes and for types of energy other than that associated with simply pushing things around.
Who is in the camp that says oil will never run out?
The purpose of recent Saudi/OPEC policies has been to inflict a punch in the gut of Russia primarily, but also of Iran and North Dakota. There isn't a lot more to it than that.
You keep asserting this yet I have shared that it is the Saudi oil ministers themselves who have stated they see climate change and the world's slowly developing position on climate change as a threat to the long-term demand and market value of their oil.
Keeping supply high and prices low meet both the short-term (anti-Russia, anti-US fracking) and the long-term (climate change) strategies. So far you have not supplied any outside sources denying the Saudi's worry about climate change, it's only your opinion.
This isn't wikipedia. It's okay to post original research and analysis here.
Meanwhile, whether related to climate change, alernative energy R&D, or other factors, these unspecified long-term effects are believed to lie in the far-distant, unknown-numbers-of-decades-from-now future. Nobody is basing short-term supply decisions on any of that. And as your non-reply to the point serves to underscore, the "oil will last forever" camp has nobody in it.
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