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Old 01-21-2008, 07:11 PM
 
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Anyone think they have any estimate as to how long the recession will last and how long we will feel its effects?
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Old 01-21-2008, 07:43 PM
 
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
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Originally Posted by Steven2149 View Post
Anyone think they have any estimate as to how long the recession will last and how long we will feel its effects?
Couple of years. This one was brought about by high fuel prices and rampant real estate speculation.
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Old 01-21-2008, 08:26 PM
 
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Originally Posted by BRMan View Post
Couple of years. This one was brought about by high fuel prices and rampant real estate speculation.
5-10 years minimum, could span a generation.

Our manufacturing infrastructure needs to be rebuilt from scratch. We've hollowed it out over the past decade buying cheap junk from China.

The real estate speculation is just the culmination of having a ridiculously high 70% of GDP based on consumption. This consumer age fad will end as swiftly as dot bomb did.

We'll likely default on many of our creditors. The Chinese imports will halt, as will many of the securitized mortgages (subprime/alt-a/prime). You think mortgages are hard to get now? On a positive note, at least the superhighway from Mexico will likely not get built or completed and many of the illegal immigrants will go home when social welfare is cut off at the knee abruptly.

"Back to basics" will be the phrase of the day. We will make tennis shoes, tires, and even televisions once again domestically. We'll have to or people will be barefoot, carless, and not entertained. I'm not kidding. Wish I was...

The mixed blessing will be exports. Unfortunately, we'll export everything we imported over the years and sell off to the highest bidder. Basically, the repo man cometh.

After the initial chaos, things will even out and subside. There could be a crash GREATER than the one in 1929, but what follows is up to how much government wants to meddle in the marketplace. My sad suspicion is...a lot .
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Old 01-21-2008, 08:36 PM
 
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wow... shall i prepare my cyanide pill now?
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Old 01-21-2008, 08:41 PM
 
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Default Tennis shoes?

It is not going to be the end of the world. Technology and productivity are not to be counted out. The United States is likely to make high value goods like MRI's and not cheap consumer products. There is still a global market out there. But there are some difficult times to go through.

I am worried about the possible defaults in the Muni market. That would really hurt infrastructure improvements.

I agree that we have to repair and even build out our infrastructure. We should mix more cement here rather than import it from Mexico. But I don't think we will ever make cheap consumer goods again.

Finally, a consumer economy should not be put-down too much. There is nothing wrong with having things as long as they increase productivity. It is the nature of the things that matter. The proliferation of electronic devices has increased consumer debt but also lead to more productivity and quality of life. I hate the over-use of cell phones--but they do have a considerable upside in overall quality of life. The clock cannot and should not be set back.

I have no desire to live on a small farm and eat goat cheese--but there is nothing wrong with that if you like it. Just don't force it upon everyone else.
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Old 01-21-2008, 08:53 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Kurt View Post
It is not going to be the end of the world. Technology and productivity are not to be counted out. The United States is likely to make high value goods like MRI's and not cheap consumer products. There is still a global market out there. But there are some difficult times to go through.

I am worried about the possible defaults in the Muni market. That would really hurt infrastructure improvements.

I agree that we have to repair and even build out our infrastructure. We should mix more cement here rather than import it from Mexico. But I don't think we will ever make cheap consumer goods again.

Finally, a consumer economy should not be put-down too much. There is nothing wrong with having things as long as they increase productivity. It is the nature of the things that matter. The proliferation of electronic devices has increased consumer debt but also lead to more productivity and quality of life. I hate the over-use of cell phones--but they do have a considerable upside in overall quality of life. The clock cannot and should not be set back.

I have no desire to live on a small farm and eat goat cheese--but there is nothing wrong with that if you like it. Just don't force it upon everyone else.
If the economy sees fit to set the clock back, it will do so whether people like it or not.

Oh yes, tennis shoes. We used to make good ones too. When the Chinese stop sending them here post-default, we'll be forced into learning how to do it again. The world has always worked on imports and exports. Always has, always will. We'll just see if time proves you or me right. Those who thought dot bomb and the neo-rich RE market was going to "shift the paradigm" were sorely mistaken when the reality of classic economics smacked them in the face.

I can guarantee you this much. The world will be a lot less "global" after this recession. Old school will be new school once again.
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Old 01-21-2008, 08:55 PM
 
123 posts, read 78,562 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven2149 View Post
wow... shall i prepare my cyanide pill now?
No, because you want to see the renaissance of the good ol' US of A. Frankly, I'm looking very much forward 10 years from now We'll play second fiddle to China as a superpower (definitely economically and transitioning on the military), but we'll have more freedom and happiness as a society. Pure and honest capitalism will prevail.

The 19th century belonged to the UK
The 20th century belonged to the US
The 21th century belongs to China*

* - Economic superpower comes at price of suppressed human rights and overall lower quality of life
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Old 01-21-2008, 09:04 PM
 
Location: Assisi, Italy
1,845 posts, read 3,925,391 times
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Originally Posted by Shazam72 View Post
No, because you want to see the renaissance of the good ol' US of A. Frankly, I'm looking very much forward 10 years from now We'll play second fiddle to China as a superpower (definitely economically and transitioning on the military), but we'll have more freedom and happiness as a society. Pure and honest capitalism will prevail.

The 19th century belonged to the UK
The 20th century belonged to the US
The 21th century belongs to China*

* - Economic superpower comes at price of suppressed human rights and overall lower quality of life
Shazam

Are you saying that over the last say 50 years that in China their human rights and Quality of Life have gotten WORSE? or just worse from here on in?
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Old 01-21-2008, 10:05 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Bob The Builder View Post
Shazam

Are you saying that over the last say 50 years that in China their human rights and Quality of Life have gotten WORSE? or just worse from here on in?
Sorry, I didn't elaborate...

Basically, I mean that China has always supressed human rights and history books will note that while they will be the economic superpower in the 21st century, their substandard socio-political conditions will likely be noted.

There is no doubt that the US will fight to the bitter end on yielding the economic prosperity torch to China. Unfortunately, I don't see any other alternative. The Chinese, after dumping our debt, will get to consume and enjoy their own goods domestically or export to Europe. Europe holds a high savings rate. The Euro also holds a stronger currency that's lucrative for imports. Places like Europe and Australia will be China's next customer. The Hang Seng drop is a temporary problem that eventually ends when China stops importing and cuts off ties economically to the US. Of course, this is just the way I see it.

It's ok though, I never really liked China being such a major player in our country.
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Old 01-22-2008, 04:18 AM
Status: "State of Satisfied Bliss and Indifference" (set 28 days ago)
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
7,028 posts, read 11,031,033 times
Reputation: 6547
Default Tennis Shoes and High Tech

I see no contradictory dichotomy between what Shazam72 and Kurt are saying.

Both high tech and tennis shoes, good old shoes and socks, both consumption and production, savings and investment, are in the cards if the ruling classes allow this recession to play its proper role, which is to restore balance to the economy.

We should have had one in 2001.

Unfortunately, in the name of some such nonsense as welfare or the ownership (in reality "debtorship") society, they will probably act to keep the skew, and in whose favor do you think?
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