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Old 06-23-2015, 11:33 AM
 
Location: Florida
9,569 posts, read 5,587,997 times
Reputation: 12024

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
Borrowing has been really difficult for a number of years. A repeat of 2008 is very unlikely. Remember that housing construction has been way down since 2008. That will have an effect. Supply is down. As more people recover from 2008, demand will go up. Prices will go up and will eventually stimulate a construction boom. When that happens, then you can start to worry.
I work in real estate and you are correct. The housing bubble was created by easy credit which meant anybody with a pulse and bad credit could get a mortgage. That is no longer the case since banks are in sphincter mode!
Real estate will always do well in premium markets like NYC, Miami, LA, SF, Seattle, Chicago, Texas, etc.
The rest of the nation is just cruising along.
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Old 06-23-2015, 01:11 PM
 
4,538 posts, read 6,424,751 times
Reputation: 3481
Quote:
Originally Posted by J.Thomas View Post
What do you think??

Judging from prices I say it's on the bubble side.

So what on earth happened and after 7 years there's a bubble again??

Market seems beyond reason.

And why chinese would buy houses in US??
around 2-3 years away from a big crash.

Just last week Donald Trump Jr announced he is no longer breaking grounds on any new housing projects like condos etc.

It takes 3-4 years from break ground to selling in a huge condo complex in the City. At that time the Trumps are predicting this real estate boom will have burst. They think 1-3 more years of bubble so everything in pipeline should be good
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Old 06-23-2015, 01:13 PM
 
4,538 posts, read 6,424,751 times
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Anyone with a pulse can get a loan. I got preapproved for a one million dollar loan last week even though I only want 400K, guy was trying to talk me into one million to max out my tax breaks. Also wanted me to put down almost nothing

Just three years ago you had to buy cash as no one was giving mortgages. And this was Chase bank
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Old 06-23-2015, 02:04 PM
 
26,181 posts, read 21,462,310 times
Reputation: 22766
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyJet View Post

Just three years ago you had to buy cash as no one was giving mortgages. And this was Chase bank


This isn't factual
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Old 06-23-2015, 02:20 PM
 
1,870 posts, read 2,212,277 times
Reputation: 3032
I will say yes, housing will crash again. It may take a few decades, but it is bound to happen again. The reason I don't think we'll see a crash anytime soon is that the credit/lending and derivatives market aren't anywhere near where they were in 2006. The banking and lender system were so systemically unsustainable that a crash had to happen. As long as people can afford their housing expenses, there's no bubble that can create a crash. We might see a correction, but not a crash anytime soon.
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Old 06-23-2015, 02:57 PM
 
48,505 posts, read 96,644,082 times
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I don't think so .If you look at latest stats housing has made gains in both value;not inflated but not so slow as the general economy. Certainly less than say vehicles. I think it was to be expected that people who were holding off are starting to move on purchase while rates are low before FED moves. Certainly also it not the same everywhere in the country as to region has shown just like recovery or the recession itself. One thing that also shows is many are buying new homes at great rate than existing. Before the recession homeownership had gotten to low 70 per centile. Geithner in his first interviews said that was beyond historical level of 65% and greater Vetting standards were need on borrowers which is what congress has done in their rules. The reality is that government wanting to use housing to increase wealth of some got out of hand and resulted in many who could have paid ;losing their jobs because of the recession thus their homes.
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Old 06-23-2015, 04:27 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
15,293 posts, read 17,614,001 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kwong7 View Post
I will say yes, housing will crash again. It may take a few decades, but it is bound to happen again. The reason I don't think we'll see a crash anytime soon is that the credit/lending and derivatives market aren't anywhere near where they were in 2006. The banking and lender system were so systemically unsustainable that a crash had to happen. As long as people can afford their housing expenses, there's no bubble that can create a crash. We might see a correction, but not a crash anytime soon.
The other thing that can happen is if the Fed raises interest rates above 10% again to save the dollar, like it did on 1980. Prices will drop because nobody will be able to afford the mortgage.
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Old 06-23-2015, 04:42 PM
 
26,181 posts, read 21,462,310 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell View Post
The other thing that can happen is if the Fed raises interest rates above 10% again to save the dollar, like it did on 1980. Prices will drop because nobody will be able to afford the mortgage.

Maybe new construction would shrink in sqft
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Old 06-23-2015, 05:31 PM
 
438 posts, read 651,331 times
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I wouldn't call what's coming t a crash but prices will definitely get a lot cheaper than they are now. Incomes and employment in the USA are about to take on a whole new meaning now that Congress has given Obama's trade agreement the green light. TISA is coming. It is a part of the trade agreement that trumps our current immigration laws. The mega corporations will be able to use it to bring cheaper workers (in pretty much any industry) from abroad here as they see fit. It will be a way for the corporations to circumvent current visa restrictions. They will then be able to do what they've been wanting to do for a very long time (and what some of them have actually already been doing): get rid of higher salaried American workers and replacing them with foreigners who will do the work for significantly less money---but this time with no need for accountability to the Department of Labor or US Immigration. Many more middle class professionals in the USA are going to lose their jobs. It may not be extremely difficult for some of these people to find other jobs, but if and when they do, they will likely be underemployed and working for a lot less money. We've seen this before. TISA will make it a WHOLE LOT worse.

One guess what happens to all of those who now have a mortgage when they can no longer make the payments...

I hope I'm wrong, but I see many, many more foreclosures coming.
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Old 06-23-2015, 05:52 PM
 
Location: Spain
12,722 posts, read 7,524,428 times
Reputation: 22633
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyJet View Post
Anyone with a pulse can get a loan.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyJet View Post
Just three years ago you had to buy cash as no one was giving mortgages
Congrats, you've managed to peg the hyperbole meter twice in one post.
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