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China is on track to run us under it's treads soon.
Not even close. The gold standard for separating the real world powers from the also-rans is naval power, and a world class navy must have aircraft carriers. He who controls the shipping lanes controls the world. While China has a good size navy they have no aircraft carriers. Russia's navy is a rusty joke. China has enjoyed great growth with the U.S.'s permission: we have allowed China to use the high seas to ship their containers of stuff worldwide.
China's economy is showing strains, thus the government intervention in the stock market very recently. They have a huge bubble of debt, estimated by Forbes at 280% of GDP. And even if the yuan were made a reserve currency that doesn't mean it would displace the US dollar as the primary world currency. After all, the Yen, Euro, Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc are all reserve currencies as well but are no threat to the US dollar as the world's number one currency.
When I was investing, I watched financial news several hours/day.
They are constantly telling us that China's economy is under performing, that it is struggling. Then MNC CEOs interview and invariably say that the Chinese economy is on fire. They reportedly poured more cement in three years than we did in the past 100 years. Not sure if I believe that.
The G8 economies are largely in trouble. Reports of our glitter are undermined by the fact that the Fed is out of ammo. They can't cut interest rates for economic stimulation. This is new ground. Our economy has been kept afloat by the Federal Reserve credit card. We could all live large if we exercised a credit card with a 10 million dollar limit.
The developed world willingly shipped their economies to China. Nobody forced them, they could have protected their labor force.
China is still a backwater in some respects. One needs to look at trends. Trends show that the Chinese system will eventually rule the world. Probably not take too long either. They make the electronics for our war equipment. Anybody can make a gun barrel. Anybody can copy what they make.
Look at the bright side. Their blend of Communism and hyper capitalism works great for the power elite. Ultra cheap labor...and trouble makers quickly disappear. After all, its all about the job creators. Right?
Military rules? Yes and no. Nobody could touch Romes military supremacy. Nevertheless, the collapse took place. We are following in Romes footsteps with eery precision.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA
Not even close. The gold standard for separating the real world powers from the also-rans is naval power, and a world class navy must have aircraft carriers. He who controls the shipping lanes controls the world. While China has a good size navy they have no aircraft carriers. Russia's navy is a rusty joke. China has enjoyed great growth with the U.S.'s permission: we have allowed China to use the high seas to ship their containers of stuff worldwide.
China's economy is showing strains, thus the government intervention in the stock market very recently. They have a huge bubble of debt, estimated by Forbes at 280% of GDP. And even if the yuan were made a reserve currency that doesn't mean it would displace the US dollar as the primary world currency. After all, the Yen, Euro, Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc are all reserve currencies as well but are no threat to the US dollar as the world's number one currency.
It's difficult to come to conclusions on the imminent danger to either US or China since much of the threat to governments comes from foreign holders of the debt (see Greece). It's been long predicted Japan would face a debt crisis but most of their debt is held domestically and the servicing of debt is financed to a large extent by running trade account surpluses with the US. That arrangement has been beneficial for the US as well. They buy US treasuries to prop up US markets.
China's growth comes irrespective of gaining "permission". The high costs of producing goods and services in Japan post-bubble forced many of their manufacturers to move their plants to other parts of Asia.
China is still a backwater in some respects. One needs to look at trends. Trends show that the Chinese system will eventually rule the world.
I love trends. In 2005 the trends said my house was going to worth over $1 mil by now. Trends never extrapolate indefinitely. Anyway, one trend to look at: China is doomed to the same fate as Japan by a declining population of young workers burdened by a large overhead of retired elderly. By 2025 China will have 200 million people over age 65. That's 200 million people who don't contribute to GDP and are dependent on the others who do. China is transitioning from fast growth to a mature, slow growth economy like the US and EU.
Many economists say that India is poised to eventually challenge China as an economic superpower. The demographics in India are better and they have been making huge strides in all types of infrastructure including health, education, electric power, transportation. But that's a long way off. I think a better way to look at it is that we are getting close to "peak China" while India in on the verge of "expanding growth."
Here we go again. I'll bite. Where to you ever come up with a national debt of $110 trillion?
Haha. Yeah. 100 TRILLION?
Assume a modest new home costs 100K then
$100,000,000,000,000 / $100,000
1,000,000,000
One BILLION new houses?
That means every man woman and child in the USA owes like 300K?
For what?
ISIS planned this?
Why those people must be supergeniuses to have liquidated 100T under our very noses?
Or maybe it's just absurb propaganda?
No matter. Our friends in the FED will be more than happy to print us up a couple hundred trill. They're such good Americans. Er, Israeli-Americans ...
I could call myself an economist in that I took every econ course required for a degree. I say that China was the first black hole to fall into. India will be the second.
Maybe I'm a doomsday economist. Then why do I hold unto six homes and cabins?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elliott_CA
I love trends. In 2005 the trends said my house was going to worth over $1 mil by now. Trends never extrapolate indefinitely. Anyway, one trend to look at: China is doomed to the same fate as Japan by a declining population of young workers burdened by a large overhead of retired elderly. By 2025 China will have 200 million people over age 65. That's 200 million people who don't contribute to GDP and are dependent on the others who do. China is transitioning from fast growth to a mature, slow growth economy like the US and EU.
Many economists say that India is poised to eventually challenge China as an economic superpower. The demographics in India are better and they have been making huge strides in all types of infrastructure including health, education, electric power, transportation. But that's a long way off. I think a better way to look at it is that we are getting close to "peak China" while India in on the verge of "expanding growth."
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