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Old 07-17-2015, 09:29 PM
 
31,745 posts, read 26,706,619 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J.Thomas View Post
I was wondering.

With these low fertility rates how soon global population will start to shrink??

It's still growing but growth has only slowed.

It didn't stop.
Problem is these low fertility rates aren't evenly spread.

Yes in many Western countries women are having less children, but in the Third World that isn't always true. India, Africa, large parts of the Middle East and so forth poor and or uneducated women continue to spit out baby after baby. Look at the hundreds of migrants arriving on the shores of Italy or Greece; many are families with two, three, four, or more children.

One interesting thing about decreasing population within a nation is something one eluded to previously; what happens when a country does not have a viable pool of young adults to recruit/enter into the military. This is especially true of places with a totally voluntary military.

When the pool of adults 18-34 shrinks where do you find men and women to replace aging and or retiring service members?

Happily or not the world's militaries are moving away from large standing armies and towards more technology driven warfare. However you still need persons to build, design and run such systems.
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Old 07-18-2015, 02:08 PM
 
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Lower fertility rates definitely won't "effect" the world economically, but they will affect it.

Grammar Girl : Affect Versus Effect :: Quick and Dirty Tips
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Old 07-19-2015, 08:39 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mysticaltyger View Post
Lower fertility rates definitely won't "effect" the world economically, but they will affect it.
And while there have been some allusions (and illusions), nothing at all has been "eluded" to previously.
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Old 07-19-2015, 08:53 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BugsyPal View Post
When the pool of adults 18-34 shrinks where do you find men and women to replace aging and or retiring service members?
Immigrants. And it isn't just the military services in which they are and will be needed. US demand for foreign-born workers will continue to grow and grow and grow. On the other hand, consider that within the next 20-30 years, Nigeria will replace us as the world's third most populous country. Hmmm.

In this light, nativist diatribes are a form of treason. It is only our past intake of immigrants that has kept us (so far) from the brink of the same sort of demographic calamities that confront China, Japan, South Korea, and Germany. We will still need however the sort of comprehensive immigration reform that can bring many more people here from all over the world and can offer them the advantages and protections of citizenship. Without these reforms and these people, we only punch our ticket for what would shape up as a very rough ride.
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Old 07-19-2015, 01:47 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,667 posts, read 6,570,285 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Major Barbara View Post
In this light, nativist diatribes are a form of treason. It is only our past intake of immigrants that has kept us (so far) from the brink of the same sort of demographic calamities that confront China, Japan, South Korea, and Germany.
What a load of alarmist BS!

Here is the list of countries facing a worse "demographic calamity" than the US. At least as far as old people goes. What is the calamity that is occurring? I'm pretty sure they aren't aware of it.

Country, % population over 65.

Japan 26
Italy 21
Germany 21
Greece 20
Finland 20
Sweden 20
Bulgaria 20
Portugal 19
Croatia 19
Latvia 19
Austria 18
Belgium 18
France 18
Denmark 18
Estonia 18
Spain 18
Switzerland 18
United Kingdom 18
Netherlands 18
Slovenia 18
Hungary 17
Czech Republic 17
Malta 17
Virgin Islands (U.S.) 17
Norway 16
Bosnia and Herzegovina 16
Lithuania 16
Canada 16
Romania 15
Ukraine 15
Poland 15
Australia 15
Serbia 15
Georgia 15
Hong Kong SAR, China 14
Curacao 14
Luxembourg 14
New Zealand 14
United States 14


Why does this matter anyway? Arguably the < 22 population is a bigger drain on prosperity than the old people. Ultimately if we have a decent fraction of the population working it is no issue whatsoever.

Oh ya... and even with the recent decline in labor force participation, we are predicted to end up with the same labor force participation rate in 2050 that we had in 1960. Gee, how can we manage, Chicken Little?

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Old 07-19-2015, 08:01 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
What a load of alarmist BS!
Simple demographic fact that you are apparently not up to date on.
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Old 07-20-2015, 08:52 AM
 
2,220 posts, read 2,790,535 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Major Barbara View Post
Immigrants. And it isn't just the military services in which they are and will be needed. US demand for foreign-born workers will continue to grow and grow and grow. On the other hand, consider that within the next 20-30 years, Nigeria will replace us as the world's third most populous country. Hmmm.

In this light, nativist diatribes are a form of treason. It is only our past intake of immigrants that has kept us (so far) from the brink of the same sort of demographic calamities that confront China, Japan, South Korea, and Germany. We will still need however the sort of comprehensive immigration reform that can bring many more people here from all over the world and can offer them the advantages and protections of citizenship. Without these reforms and these people, we only punch our ticket for what would shape up as a very rough ride.
Importing a culturally hostile underclass of people--what could go wrong?

Actually, from the first World Trade Center bombing (eight years before 09/11/01) to Chatanooga, quite a bit. And the Euros are facing even worse.
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Old 07-20-2015, 08:55 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NickB1967 View Post
Importing a culturally hostile underclass of workers--what could go wrong?
You don't have to have them over to your house for dinner, but the national economy needs immigration badly. Hence it will come. Maybe legally, maybe illegally. But it will come.
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Old 07-20-2015, 09:07 AM
 
2,220 posts, read 2,790,535 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Major Barbara View Post
You don't have to have them over to your house for dinner, but the national economy needs immigration badly. Hence it will come. Maybe legally, maybe illegally. But it will come.
We can be choosy about who we let in. We have so many beating a path to our golden doors that we ought to do a modicum of screening. It is that simple. And sadly we are not.

On the Left, we have treasonous activists who actually WANT a larger anti-American lumpenproletariat. On the right, we have those who want cheaper gardeners and maids, national security and sovereignty be damned, and who live in their gated communities and are insulated from the consequences that middle and working class Americans have to endure.

I only wish the immigration romantics like yourself had to queue up with the illegal aliens who have overwhelmed the emergency rooms. With what your political allies are doing to health care, you may get that yet. Or your children had to try to get an education with those who have no English language skills and are not academically inclined, who have overwhelmed the public schools.

Or better yet, spend a night in a cell with muslims, and learn a thing or two about how women are treated in that culture and religion.

Last edited by NickB1967; 07-20-2015 at 09:16 AM..
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Old 07-20-2015, 09:10 AM
 
1,820 posts, read 1,648,264 times
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Hmmm. I'm curious now as to how much time you have spent in jail cells -- with or without Muslims.

However, much it was, you should have spent less of it reading mindless nativist rubbish.

Last edited by Major Barbara; 07-20-2015 at 09:22 AM..
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