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I watched the pay out for unemployment checks and the published unemployment number diverge from having a close correlation to payouts going up 50% more than the published unemployment rates.
There is no 1-1 correlation between unemployment rate and people receiving benefits, so believing a divergence indicates someone fudging the numbers sounds like someone playing amateur statistician to validate their conspiracy theories about the government cooking the books.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon
Baltic dry, CC debt numbers, car loan numbers, stuff that can't be fudged. We've got a slow down going. CC delinquencies are up 2 quarters in a row. Baltic dry is at an all time low.
I'm still baffled as to why you believe some numbers that get compiled from who knows where by who knows who cannot be fudged, while others can.
Does Baltic Dry correlate to CC delinquencies? Surely they must if both good measures of economy.
There is no 1-1 correlation between unemployment rate and people receiving benefits, so believing a divergence indicates someone fudging the numbers sounds like someone playing amateur statistician to validate their conspiracy theories about the government cooking the books.
Historically we haven't had much reason to cook the books on economic figures, and so they have been trusted as accurate. Because they were. Now?
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang
I'm still baffled as to why you believe some numbers that get compiled from who knows where by who knows who cannot be fudged, while others can.
With a statistical sampling you can get sampling error with little effort. With adding up all the Credit cards that are current and those that are not you can get cooked numbers but that is fraud.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang
Does Baltic Dry correlate to CC delinquencies? Surely they must if both good measures of economy.
Does height correlate with width? They both measure aspects of the same thing? Looking at both determines the shape of things.
I watched the pay out for unemployment checks and the published unemployment number diverge from having a close correlation to payouts going up 50% more than the published unemployment rates.
Well, that's 10 things you're doing wrong right there.
Historically we haven't had much reason to cook the books on economic figures, and so they have been trusted as accurate. Because they were. Now?
Ah your opinion about level of motivation is now proof statistics that don't align with your world view must be lies. Nothing like science.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon
With a statistical sampling you can get sampling error with little effort. With adding up all the Credit cards that are current and those that are not you can get cooked numbers but that is fraud.
Do you really know how they determine credit card delinquency rate or are you just making some assumptions here? You know they simply contact every credit card issuers in the United States and find out exactly how many are current, then divide by the exact number of open credit card accounts?
See up top it says "All Banks, SA" do you know what that SA stands for? That's right, seasonally adjusted. So much for simple math with no sampling or statistical manipulation eh?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon
Does height correlate with width? They both measure aspects of the same thing? Looking at both determines the shape of things.
The graph clearly shows that more unemployed people received assistance in 2010, twice as much as in 2006. The main reason is in a recession more people lose jobs through no fault and receive assistance, as opposed to people just quitting where they don't get unemployment benefits.
This explains why the unemployment rate and benefits paid don't move lockstep together, and the flaw in your reasoning that divergence indicates serious flaws with either stat. But it doesn't really matter, we both know that since the unemployment rate being low and continuing to drop doesn't match your worldview you'll always have a reason to consider it false and cooked books.
I watched the pay out for unemployment checks and the published unemployment number diverge from having a close correlation to payouts going up 50% more than the published unemployment rates. In November of 2010 they were paying out for, 17% and change, and calling it 9.8%. After this I'm not impressed with unemployment numbers or job created numbers. Baltic dry, CC debt numbers, car loan numbers, stuff that can't be fudged. We've got a slow down going. CC delinquencies are up 2 quarters in a row. Baltic dry is at an all time low.
If we were to go by income tax withholdings rather than the BLS reports, then the jobs number drops dramatically. Although it is still a positive number at least:
TrimTabs estimated that the United States added a mere 55,000 to 85,000 jobs in February. If this proves right, it is the lowest level since July of 2013. Another warning came from TrimTabs here: real growth in income tax withholdings turned negative in February as well.
And this uses real-time data that is not subject to revision and "seasonal adjustment"...
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