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Carpenters, handymen, etc.. are doing well right now. HVAC repair, etc... These don't require much training (relatively speaking) but good trades make decent money.
What makes you think a carpenter doesn't require much training? Or HVAC?
A booming economy raises the pay of skilled workers. That is where there is a shortage. The labor participation rate at 62.6% is at a 38 year low. We have a huge glut of unskilled workers. U6 is 9.8%.
What makes you think a carpenter doesn't require much training? Or HVAC?
A booming economy raises the pay of skilled workers. That is where there is a shortage. The labor participation rate at 62.6% is at a 38 year low. We have a huge glut of unskilled workers. U6 is 9.8%.
They both require some, but nothing like what most people considered to be "skilled" work. But they aren't unskilled either, they are somewhere in between.
I remember articles saying that during the oil boom in North Dakota there was a shortage of people doing menial and low skilled jobs so they were paying over $15 at fast food and other similar jobs, but the cost of housing got so high that the $15 wage was like $8 in Texas, so the unskilled got no where in the end.
Again, if the economy boomed would the unskilled worker doing menial jobs who does not have the emotional, language or intellectual skills for anything better come out ahead?
I remember articles saying that during the oil boom in North Dakota there was a shortage of people doing menial and low skilled jobs so they were paying over $15 at fast food and other similar jobs, but the cost of housing got so high that the $15 wage was like $8 in Texas, so the unskilled got no where in the end.
Again, if the economy boomed would the unskilled worker doing menial jobs who does not have the emotional, language or intellectual skills for anything better come out ahead?
While in general they may do a little better, the gist of the answer is no. They are by definition, "unskilled." As such they are destined for menial work--if they get any work at all.
If the economy were to really boom like it did in the late 1990s, what impact will that have on the wages of unskilled workers and the type of jobs that they do?
During the late 1990s wages for less-credentialed workers rose only slightly slower than wages for more-credentialed workers, as you can see here (the difference looks bigger than it really is because college graduates grew from a higher base). Wages rose at a good clip every year for skilled and unskilled alike in that time period - education requirements to enter the middle class haven't changed much since, so we should expect the same result today.
Also, black wages increased at a faster rate than white wages, representing the only time since civil rights when the black-white wage gap narrowed significantly. Blacks tend to possess less skills than whites, so that tells you something right there about the skilled-unskilled divide and how it would play out in a boom. Also notice from the same chart that the black marriage rate increased for the first and to date last time since civil rights, greatly narrowing the black-white marriage gap.
Income inequality increased at a good clip during this period of time, with higher income brackets experiencing significantly faster income growth than lower income brackets, but the point is the income of all demographics was increasing at a good clip by historical standards, and the only divide that was growing was between high-earners and low-earners - the yawning divides of race, education, skill, and age in the economy narrowed considerably during the 1990s boom.
In fact if such a trend had continued over the past 15 years it's amazing how many social and economic problems would have been lessened by direct or indirect effects of the economic boom - a strong rising tide does indeed lift all boats, no matter what skills or credentials they have.
They both require some, but nothing like what most people considered to be "skilled" work. But they aren't unskilled either, they are somewhere in between.
they have more training than standard accountant or secretary... so they get paid more. office workers get more once they hit cpa and more advanced skills...
but between physical labor or office work, entry workers flock to the easy office and air con jobs... and they wonder why they get paid less than their hvac/mechanic
Someone who works menial low wage jobs generally never gets ahead financially. You spend your whole life treading water. Many of those jobs are physical so it's common for one to end up on disability eventually. And generally the low wage employers want young people so they fire or force quit older workers at a certain stage.
they have more training than standard accountant or secretary... so they get paid more. office workers get more once they hit cpa and more advanced skills...
but between physical labor or office work, entry workers flock to the easy office and air con jobs... and they wonder why they get paid less than their hvac/mechanic
The carpenters I know make pretty good money. I'm not talking about semi-skilled people erecting new construction homes. An enormous amount of industrial engineering has gone into knocking the skill and unit labor cost out of that. I'm talking about the guys who do cabinetry and repair older homes. Norm Abram-types. There is a ton of material you have to master to get a license.
...and unlike a secretary, somebody in the trades with some ambition and intellect can start their own business and make a profit from the labor of others. I know plenty of people who make 6 figures in their small business.
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Yes, and the proof is in the cities that are raising the minimum wage, and have booming economies, such as Seattle, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Of course, the already high and escalating cost of living in those cities more than makes up for that pay, and hen it's phased in, the cost of living is likely going to be much higher by the time it actually hits $5.
If the economy were to really boom like it did in the late 1990s, what impact will that have on the wages of unskilled workers and the type of jobs that they do?
The stark reality in the modern workforce is that unless you have some kind of marketable skill that someone wants to pay you for, you are going to get left behind no matter what else you may offer. There is no such thing as a utopia where even the most menial labour commands a "livable wage" of $15+ an hour. If your sole ambition is to cut class, smoke dope and work a mindless McJob for the rest of your life, don't expect to have a very easy existence. The same goes for those who study unemployable post-secondary vocations simply so they can have a very expensive piece of paper to hang on their wall.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemlock140
Yes, and the proof is in the cities that are raising the minimum wage, and have booming economies, such as Seattle, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Of course, the already high and escalating cost of living in those cities more than makes up for that pay, and hen it's phased in, the cost of living is likely going to be much higher by the time it actually hits $5.
Let's say I have a fast food restaurant and employ six employees. My restaurant has been outfitted with clam grills, fry timers and every other kitchen gadget to ensure my training and turnover costs are as low as possible. Each employees that works there makes $10/hour for their contribution to my operation. Basically that translates into $60/hour of labour costs for unskilled labour anyone could do.
Now the government demands I pay them $15/hour, which translates into an increase to $90/hour in labour costs.
I now have three choices. First, I can raise the costs of my products accordingly to keep my profit margin where it is. The risk is that my customers may deem my prices too high and start frequenting my competitors.
Second, I take the profit hit and pressure the front-facing employees to use pressure tactics to upsell $30 more products and hour in the hope that my customers take the bait. The risk is that I may not sell enough product or I alienate my customers with pressure sales tactics which turns them on to my competition.
Third, I can eliminate two of the six positions and keep my labour costs the same. Seeing how the four remaining employees just got a 50% raise, I tell them I expect them to take up the slack or I will replace them with new employees that will. My labour costs stay the same and my customers keep coming to my restaurant. The risk is that employee morale drops and I lose a couple low-skill employees I can easily replace within a week. I already installed clam grills and timed fryers to reduce lost production due to employee turnover.
Now given the reality of business today, which option do you think most businesses will consider when presented with this problem?
Last edited by Annuvin; 11-22-2015 at 03:25 PM..
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