Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
China hasn't had a history of capitalism at least for a long time. It seemed to me that when their economy was going hot that they were simply going at things without a plan. It seemed like a chaotic adventure that was new to them and they invested and grabbed and did everything for gain without any thought of consequences. Now I hear that they had a multitude of bubbles coming up and their economy is cooling and that will be something new to them. Of course this is important because what happens to China will effect the whole world.
China has had a plan for quite some time now, and as a result their economic expansion and general std of living for its people have progressed in a very remarkable and rapid manner these past few decades.
Theirs is a central command economy, with their current status being a leveling off of massive investment in infrastructure and industry/exports, and then a ramping up of preference toward their people as consumers. This has to be if they are to advance to first world status.
Right now they are experiencing the turbulence of this central planning and movement toward a consumer led economy, as we have in the USA. It will take time and surely more turbulence to do so. Moving from massive crony/state owned capitalism to a more private sector owed economy will take some time and create much temporary uncertainty.
Japan had a similar bubble it experienced a huge asset bubble that when it popped, led to severe economic recession that often called the lost decade, but lasted for 20 years. I expect the same kind of collapse, when the bubble pops in China it will last at least a decade, maybe more, despite what ever economic stimulus the government throws at it. You can hardly expect to build entire cities with no residents and not expect some kind of repressions. The only question is when it will happen and how bad it will be, they could very well spiral into a depression.
Japan had a gdp per capita of 30K in 1990, which means they had reached close to their max potential. China will grow just from internal migration, so your prediction is utterly stupid.
Of course they may slow down, but thats normal. Japan had a slowdown in 70-75. South Korea had a slowdown in the late 90s. But neither stopped growing, because they hadn't reached their potential.
And while there may be a few ghost towns, you must remember China is a big country with big investors and hence everything look bigger. The majority of the houses are built around the cities where they are needed. In addition, not all of the supposed ghost towns are really ghost towns. In China they often wait for the infrastructure to become adequate before moving in.
They are headed in that direction. Basically by divesting large state run enterprises into the private sector. It can't happen all at once or overnight. And there is bound to be much kickback by those having to take losses. Of course no one knows the final result, but where does any pure capitalism exist today?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
