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When reading recession predictions, the first thing you should look for in each prediction is whether it says how bad it will be, when it will happen, how long it will last, etc. If it says those things, discard it, because it's worthless nonsense. Even if it says there will be no recession, but a sudden bull market, those are worthless nonsense too. None of that stuff can be predicted. Trying to predict such stuff is like trying to acquire a magic crystal that will help you get rich by predicting things and letting you get in position to take advantage of them when they happen. It's all nothing but a fantasy. You can only see crashes and and bull markets in hindsight. Every single day of a bull market should be assumed to possibly be its last day. Every single day of a recession should be assumed to possibly be the day before a new bull market starts. Such predictions will usually be wrong, but they will help keep you from positioning yourself to be wiped out. The real truth is that stock market speculation is mostly gambling. To gain over the long run while avoiding excessive gambling, simply keep a reasonable fraction of your assets in the market thru thick and thin, year after year, without ever worrying about the ups and downs, recessions and bull markets.
I just don't think that The next recession will be as bad just because we rarely have depressions or recessions to that scale. The typical recessions hurt and slow hiring but not to that extent. Look at the 1980 recession vs the 1987 one, 87 was no where near as bad as the 1980 one was, even if it was unresolved issues from the previous recession.
It would be a bit of carnival if the Central Banks started to print money to buy all kinds of state, city municipal bonds as well as the stock market itself as China is doing. Maybe even corporate bonds? What a warped economy that would be? Who knows what such a monstrosity would behave like? At least in China it is causing massive devaluation of currency.
Just as we were talking about the possibility of hyper-inflation :
“If I am right and we have just seen a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market, then the next recession will spell real trouble for investors ill-prepared for equity valuations to fall to new lows,” warned the Societe Generale economist Albert Edwards.
“Most believe a 75% equity bear market to be impossible. But those same people said something similar prior to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. They, including the Fed, failed to predict the vulnerability of the US economy that would fall into deep recession, well before Lehman’s went bust in September 2008.”
"Edwards believes a reactive Federal Reserve “will fight the next bear market with every weapon available including deeply negative Fed Funds rates in addition to more QE. Indeed, negative policy rates will become ubiquitous.”
On Friday New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said negative interest rates may be a tool.
Willem Buiter, Citicorp’s chief economist, thinks a negative interest rate around -6% is doable."
Wow, now we can expect housing prices to go into the stratosphere if they are really are thinking of doing this!@%*!
"Edwards believes a reactive Federal Reserve “will fight the next bear market with every weapon available including deeply negative Fed Funds rates in addition to more QE. Indeed, negative policy rates will become ubiquitous.”
On Friday New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said negative interest rates may be a tool.
Willem Buiter, Citicorp’s chief economist, thinks a negative interest rate around -6% is doable."
Wow, now we can expect housing prices to go into the stratosphere if they are really are thinking of doing this!@%*!
Who knows what a nuclear bomb like this would do to the world economy. The crazies have truly taken over the government.
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