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But were you? The company was broke, then things changed. You were correct that it was broke. What happened as a result of it being broke that went against you.
Absolutely. If you said it would go down, and it went up, the result is not what you predicted. You were wrong.
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Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon
What part of the increase was what you saw coming and what part wasn't?
Irrelevant in a discussion of whether a result of a prediction was correct or not.
Absolutely. If you said it would go down, and it went up, the result is not what you predicted. You were wrong.
I see things a bit differently. If the analysis was correct then that wasn't wrong, If outside forces drove a different result then the analysis should've taken that into account.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang
Irrelevant in a discussion of whether a result of a prediction was correct or not.
In the example you came up with the result was as predicted. It went up. Why it went up well the original reason was still there and didn't change. There was a new outside force that pushed in the same direction.
I'm happy to say if you can figure out the direction something should move then that is half the battle. If you do that enough then the law of averages will be on your side.
The FED is pushing the market one direction, the markets own internal forces are pushing it in another direction. Short term bet with the FED. Long term bet with the markets forces. When do you switch from short term to long term? That is the big Q.
They don't care about inflation. They are Bankers. They only care about making money for themselves. Use Marie Antoinette as your model, not Thomas Jefferson.
I work in a pharmacy and I only care about making money for me and mine.
But hey, if you are so altruistic, mind lending me some money oh selfless one!!?!?!
I work in a pharmacy and I only care about making money for me and mine.
But hey, if you are so altruistic, mind lending me some money oh selfless one!!?!?!
Exactly. To understand Central Bankers requires that people understand people such as yourself. Unfortunately, selfishness and self-absorbed love of money is omitted from typical descriptions of Central Bankers therefore many people (certainly not all) get a false impression that Central Bankers actually care about the economy. They "only care about making money for me and mine". This simple and critical piece of knowledge explains all of the Fed actions and provides the rationale for shutting it down.
And that about wraps up all one needs to know about Central Bankers and Bankers in general. The economics books on this subject can be resold as fiction on Amazon.
Exactly. To understand Central Bankers requires that people understand people such as yourself. Unfortunately, selfishness and self-absorbed love of money is omitted from typical descriptions of Central Bankers therefore many people (certainly not all) get a false impression that Central Bankers actually care about the economy. They "only care about making money for me and mine". This simple and critical piece of knowledge explains all of the Fed actions and provides the rationale for shutting it down.
So you are not going to give me money? I doubt I can just get significant money from begging.
I don't want to live on the amount of money given for welfare, despite the rhetoric about freeloaders cuz it ain't that great to be on welfare and medicaid.
So I'm self-absorbed because I understand only I can provide myself the standard of living currently and in the future?
You're big on rhetoric but not reality.
Quote:
And that about wraps up all one needs to know about Central Bankers and Bankers in general. The economics books on this subject can be resold as fiction on Amazon.
Uh huh. It certainly has zero to do with stability since it was rainbows, cupcakes, and unicorns before central banks.
Wait a sec, aren't you the guy who is sitting on a big pile of cash and wants the country's economic policy changed to to suit you and your specific investing style so that your money will grow more with interest, regardless of the impact on the tens of millions with less money who would suffer higher interest rates on their debt?
Fascinating you labeling others and self-absorbed and loving money, we need to hire a cherry picker to reach high enough to get you down from your high horse.
Wait a sec, aren't you the guy who is sitting on a big pile of cash and wants the country's economic policy changed to to suit you and your specific investing style so that your money will grow more with interest, regardless of the impact on the tens of millions with less money who would suffer higher interest rates on their debt?
Fascinating you labeling others and self-absorbed and loving money, we need to hire a cherry picker to reach high enough to get you down from your high horse.
Wait a sec, aren't you the guy who is sitting on a big pile of cash and wants the country's economic policy changed to to suit you and your specific investing style so that your money will grow more with interest, regardless of the impact on the tens of millions with less money who would suffer higher interest rates on their debt?
Fascinating you labeling others and self-absorbed and loving money, we need to hire a cherry picker to reach high enough to get you down from your high horse.
yep that his exactly his view . forget about the billions that were put back in the pockets of american through lower mortgages , zero auto loans and reduced financing . forget the fact most american's live hand to mouth and have no savings to get interest on as well as need help with debt service or purchasing big ticket items to over come stagnant wages .
richrf wants his interest raised . ...... forget the fact he owned and sat with the wrong asset class at the wrong time despite the fed doing everything but dropping leaflets from helicopter saying at least slide over to bonds if you do not want risk .
those who listened did very well , those like rchrf who ignored things paid the price in their returns and now they whine about things . so yep ,everyone else should shell out more money for their bills so those risk adverse can get a few points better . .
Last edited by mathjak107; 01-30-2016 at 04:45 AM..
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