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I was just looking at some statistics and it seems like the median age of first time homebuyer is 33.
Which means the typically first-time homebuyer would have been born in 1982 or 1983.
1982 had 3.6 million births.
The peak year for millennials 1990 at 4.1 million births. With over 4 million births between 1989-1993.
This means that there will be likely 250,000 or so extra households formed over the coming years as opposed to now because of the high-births rates in the late 1980s and early 1990s
This means that most millennials will be 33 in the 2020-2025 time period.
With the housing shortage on the coasts and in high population growth metropolitan areas I wonder how much this will increase demand with 500,000 or more people turning the median age where the first home in typical purchased.
It also seems like property taxes will go as birth rates will likely go up as those born in the peak birth years of the early 1990s will start having more children.
The oldest Millennials are now 35 and prime home buying age. Why do you think prices are soaring on real estate in the high cost of living places? There are now tons of Millennial professionals who have hit their prime earning years. They're going to have the same impact on the economy that the Boomers did but with even more income stratification. The top-20% of them are heavily clustered in the high cost of living regions with the good jobs.
Do I think housing prices are going to shoot up in Flint or Detroit? No. They're now bidding the prices up in the high COL places.
The Millennials are finally buying homes but the boomers are staying put. So we have few homes available.
Eventually the boomers will leave one way or another. However, every boomer I know is staying and not downsizing. They have homes paid off and see no reason to move.
In the long run, as the boomers expire, perhaps house prices will decline.
The Millennials are finally buying homes but the boomers are staying put. So we have few homes available.
Eventually the boomers will leave one way or another. However, every boomer I know is staying and not downsizing. They have homes paid off and see no reason to move.
In the long run, as the boomers expire, perhaps house prices will decline.
That's accurate I think in many areas. Also keep in mind that the largest bulge in the Baby Boom consists of people who are just now hitting 62 and still have a few years to hit Full Retirement Age. The oldest Boomers are 70, the youngest 56 (if you end the generation in 1960, 52 if you end it in 1964).
Mrs. NBP have talked about buying a smaller house in NWPA as a summer getaway (the summers here in SoMD are getting to us both) but keeping the beach house for the winters. It's a moot discussion for at least another couple years since she's only 60 and I just turned 62 (although I retired last year).
In the long run, as the boomers expire, perhaps house prices will decline.
The population of the United States is projected to grow by 100 million over the next 50 years. Why would you think that? The high COL regions with the massive traffic jams aren't going to have reduced traffic jams 50 years from now with 100 million more people in the country. There will be even more of a premium for housing with good school systems near the high paying jobs.
I don't think it will have the same effect as Boomer's coming of age did. Less of an increase.
White Millennials are only about 75% the size of the white Boomer generation, and I personally know several people my age (late 20s) who are even as we speak inheriting houses that are already paid off from relatives that had no kids of their own to leave them to.
There is also the issue of Millennials getting married far less than prior generations, and people do tend to remain renters until marriage comes along.
But we do like living closer to cities. That much is obvious by this point. Having a big house out in the boondocks is not the Millennial dream. So I think cities will continue to have big price increases but those outer suburbs that boomed even up until the last recession are doomed for decline I think. I remember reading somewhere that suburbs on the fringe outskirts of Atlanta may never in our lifetimes reach the price levels they had prior to the recession because new buyers don't want to live that far from the city.
I don't think it will have the same effect as Boomer's coming of age did. Less of an increase.
White Millennials are only about 75% the size of the white Boomer generation, and I personally know several people my age (late 20s) who are even as we speak inheriting houses that are already paid off from relatives that had no kids of their own to leave them to.
There is also the issue of Millennials getting married far less than prior generations, and people do tend to remain renters until marriage comes along.
But we do like living closer to cities. That much is obvious by this point. Having a big house out in the boondocks is not the Millennial dream. So I think cities will continue to have big price increases but those outer suburbs that boomed even up until the last recession are doomed for decline I think. I remember reading somewhere that suburbs on the fringe outskirts of Atlanta may never in our lifetimes reach the price levels they had prior to the recession because new buyers don't want to live that far from the city.
The thing is that once those millenials have kids and those kids hit elementary school, being able to Uber to wine bars for $4 will take a backseat to school districts... which are often superior in suburbs.
Now I do think that some millenials will stay put in cities. And it is true that not as many millenials are having families as boomers.
However, I think a lot of people born between 1980 and 1995 that are loving the rebirth of center cities will eventually move to the burbs as their priorities in life evolve.
The thing is that once those millenials have kids and those kids hit elementary school, being able to Uber to wine bars for $4 will take a backseat to school districts... which are often superior in suburbs.
Now I do think that some millenials will stay put in cities. And it is true that not as many millenials are having families as boomers.
However, I think a lot of people born between 1980 and 1995 that are loving the rebirth of center cities will eventually move to the burbs as their priorities in life evolve.
Inner burbs, yes. Outer burbs, I highly doubt it. Regarding schools, the one overwhelming factor in how a child performs in schools goes back to a child's home life. Millennials know this, prior generations didn't as much because the internet wasn't available at hand to provide the studies.
If I was a real estate mogul, I wouldn't have 2 pennies invested in outer burbs.
The thing is that once those millenials have kids and those kids hit elementary school, being able to Uber to wine bars for $4 will take a backseat to school districts... which are often superior in suburbs.
Now I do think that some millenials will stay put in cities. And it is true that not as many millenials are having families as boomers.
However, I think a lot of people born between 1980 and 1995 that are loving the rebirth of center cities will eventually move to the burbs as their priorities in life evolve.
Given the size of the generation and the competition for housing around job-dense cities, it is likely that many school districts at the fringes of in-demand areas will see more children from families with highly educated parents and the schools will improve as a result.
To say anything more specific would be to pretend, falsely, that this generation is a distinct species; it isn't some homogeneous thing and, like every other generation, will cover the spectrum of outcomes and choices. Some will stay in cities, some will move to first-ring suburbs, some will move to wealthy suburban enclaves, some will drive until they qualify, and many will never own property anywhere (or, rather, have a mortgage).
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